MBB notebook: The numbers and reasons behind South Carolina's 0-4 conference start

South Carolina basketball is still looking for its first SEC win of the 2024-25 season. But the team looks quite different compared to their non-conference iteration. Injuries to starters Myles Stute (for the second straight year) and Jamarii Thomas have something to do with that. 

In the previous stat dive, it was established that the team’s schemes are nearly identical to last year’s team. But are the Gamecocks executing at the same levels of efficiency? And which players are performing better than expected? We’ve got all that and more on the second edition of the South Carolina men’s basketball stat dive. 

Injuries take their toll

South Carolina was already working with a thinner rotation compared to last season’s tournament team. But Stute (blood clot) and Thomas (knee sprain) are out for weeks. Stute, who came off the bench for Zachary Davis against North Florida, was replaced in the starting lineup again by Davis. In the two games that Thomas has missed, the starting lineup has consisted of Jacobi Wright, Morris Ugusuk, Davis, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Nick Pringle. 

What are the Gamecocks losing in Stute and Thomas? In Thomas, he’s the team’s second-leading scorer and lead guard. The Norfolk State transfer, brought in to replace Ta’Lon Cooper, wasn’t producing at the same level as the former Minnesota Golden Gopher. But he was leading the Gamecocks in assists per game (3.3), steals per game (1.4), and second behind Ugusuk with a 36.7 three-point percentage.

Thomas, in 15 games, led the Gamecocks in points against Mercer, East Carolina, and Radford. He paced the team in assists seven times, notably with seven against East Carolina. As far as other impacts on games missed, that will be covered in the section below. 

Stute, prior to the absence, was not producing at the same level as seasons previous. After posting an average of 8.3 PPG last year, he’s averaging 5.4 PPG this season. His three-point percentage had slipped from 38.5% to 32.8%. That mark is his lowest from deep since his freshman year at Vanderbilt. 

The wing, however, has had a changed role offensively compared to last season. His usage rate has dropped from 19.8% in 2023-24 (a career high) to 13.6% in 2024-25 (a career low). Stute, despite the losses of B.J. Mack, Meechie Johnson, and Ta’Lon Cooper, had not received an extended role. 

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Examining the last two games

South Carolina was blown out in their first two games of SEC play. Both Mississippi State and Alabama took care of the Gamecocks handily. But South Carolina kept it close against Auburn and Vanderbilt, losing 66-63 in both games. 

Even though the score was exactly the same, the two games were completely different, performance-wise. A further examination is needed to determine what went right, what went wrong, and what the next few games could look like. 

Auburn

Coming into the mid-week tilt at Colonial Life Arena, the Gamecocks were -16.5 underdogs in their own building. But from the jump, Lamont Paris’s group stayed in the game, controlling most of it. Auburn star Johni Broome went down with an ankle injury in the second half, but the Tigers, with help from a pair of missed free throws from South Carolina, held on for the victory. 

South Carolina at one point pulled off a 10-0 run in the first half. Statistically, a team with a 10-0 run wins a basketball game 71% of the time. That rises to 81% if the other team doesn’t produce a similar run. Auburn didn’t.

South Carolina was the more physical team, beating Auburn in the rebounding battle by a 37-33 margin. That marked only the third time this year an opponent had out-rebounded Auburn. Pringle and Murray-Boyles combined for 17. 

The Gamecocks ran what was essentially a six-and-a-half-man rotation against the Tigers. The aforementioned five starters all played between 27 to 36 minutes. Arden Conyers played 31 off the bench, and Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk got in for 10. Jordan Butler also had a brief one-minute appearance. 

South Carolina was able to limit turnovers (nine) and crash the boards (40.5% offensive rebounding percentage). But Auburn’s efficiency from deep (38.1 3PT%) and South Carolina’s lack thereof (25.0 3PT%) was enough to take down the ‘Cocks in Columbia. 

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt was a different story. Still considerable underdogs (+9.5-point spread), South Carolina did not look like the same team that took Auburn the distance. In their second game without Thomas, turnovers plagued the Gamecocks. 

In just the first half, South Carolina committed 16 turnovers. That was more in one half than the team had in any game so far this season. They added nine more in the second half. Every starter had three-plus turnovers. Murray-Boyles and Davis each committed five. 

Meanwhile, South Carolina forced Vanderbilt into 12 turnovers, but that was still less than half of what the Gamecocks committed. The loss came despite a large discrepancy in three-point efficiency. South Carolina shot 7-of-16 from deep, or 43.8%. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, was 4-for-21. Ugusuk was 3-for-4 from deep, and he paced both teams with 20 points on just six made shots. 

Ugusuk’s previous career-best was also in a loss. He dropped 18 against Indiana earlier this season. Murray-Boyles and Conyers were also in double figures. Conyers has now hit 10-plus points in each game that Thomas has missed. 

The Gamecocks’ offensive rating jumped from 72.8 in the first half to 112.3 in the second half. But it wasn’t enough to scoot past the ‘Dores, who took advantage of a very disorganized offense without Thomas. 

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Quick hitters

Per usual, a break to some easier-to-digest quick facts. 

Pringle and Murray-Boyles both have a two-point percentage of 62.6%, tied for highest on the team. Davis (50.7%) is the only other Gamecock above 50.0%. 

South Carolina’s FTAr is 45.1%, meaning it shoots 45.1 free throws for every 100 field goal attempts. That’s 11th-highest in D-I, but its free throw percentage of 69.6% is 255th nationally and 15th in the SEC. 

One thing South Carolina’s opponents haven’t had difficulty with? Sending Gamecocks’ shots back to the sender. 13.1% of South Carolina’s shots are blocked. That’s in the bottom 15 teams in all of D-I. 

When Ugusuk and Davis are both on the court with Murray-Boyles, the sophomore forward is highly productive. *Per 40 minutes*, he’s averaging 26.6 points, 13.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals, and 1.6 blocks while sharing the court with that duo. Why is that important? Because Ugusuk and Davis have replaced Stute and Thomas in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. 

But the injury bug giveth opportunity, and it taketh. When Stute and Thomas are both on the court, South Carolina has a +52 plus/minus and a +11.7 net rating. Three of the four highest-value two-man lineup combinations for South Carolina, in terms of plus/minus, contain Jamarii Thomas. 

Bosmans-Verdonk has a higher offensive rebounding percentage (19.7%) than defensive rebounding percentage (16.6%). 

Murray-Boyles’s field goal percentage of 59.4% is highest in the SEC amongst qualifying players. Last season, he would have led the conference if he had enough court minutes to qualify for leaderboards. 

The most efficient five-player lineup that doesn’t involve Stute or Thomas? It’s Wright, Ugusuk, Conyers, Murray-Boyles, and Pringle. When those five are on the court, the team has a +24.5 net rating and an offensive rebounding rate of 61.5%. However, they’ve only played 12 minutes and 16 possessions on the court together. 

For a larger sample size, the most efficient four-man lineup (with a random fifth player not named Stute or Thomas) is Ugusuk, Scott, Murray-Boyles, and Pringle. In 18 possessions, that group 41.7% from deep and 92.9% from the line. They also have an offensive rating of 133.9, in the 96th percentile. 

What’s next?

South Carolina basketball has one of their most difficult stretches of basketball in recent history upcoming. 

After a road matchup against Oklahoma, the Gamecocks have seven straight matchups against teams currently ranked in the AP poll. Games against Florida bookend the stretch, but in between are games against Mississippi State, Georgia, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Ole Miss. 

In the immediate future, however, games against Oklahoma and Florida are next up on the docket. The Sooners are adept at guarding the perimeter, (27.9% opponent 3PT%) but that excellence doesn’t spill into the paint. Oklahoma is giving up 54.4% on opponent twos. That’s last in the SEC and 291st nationally. If South Carolina can get Murray-Boyles and Pringle the ball in the paint, the Gamecocks could string together solid offensive possessions. 

One place that Oklahoma has South Carolina beat is at the line, however. Though South Carolina is fourth in the SEC with 24.6 FTA/game, they only convert at a 69.6% clip. The Sooners make 80.0% of their 20.6 attempts per game. 

Against Auburn, South Carolina controlled the rebounding battle en route to almost pulling out a win. They’ve got a chance to do that against Oklahoma. The Sooners are last in the SEC with a 66.5% defensive rebounding percentage. South Carolina isn’t an elite offensive rebounding team, but they’re not bad, with a 31.0% mark. 

Florida is, statistically, a stronger team than Oklahoma. But the Gators do have verifiable weaknesses. In their latest home loss to Missouri, the Tigers racked up 12 steals. They also held Florida, who has an average of 15.4 APG, to just nine assists. 

South Carolina is only averaging 5.1 SPG, however, which is 336th nationally. So that particular method of victory is likely on a path that the Gamecocks cannot go down. But if South Carolina can make their free throws, they’ve got a chance against the Gators. Florida is averaging 17.1 fouls per game. That’s in the top half of the SEC, and the Gamecocks, as previously mentioned, are fourth in the SEC with 24.6 attempts per game. 

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