MBB notebook: The numbers and reasons behind South Carolina's 0-8 conference start

South Carolina basketball is still looking for its first SEC win of the 2024-25 season. That hasn’t changed since the last stat dive was published. But if there is a bit of good news to be had, Jamarii Thomas is back. The Norfolk State transfer came off the bench against Mississippi State and Georgia, but made an impact. He led the Gamecocks with 19 points in both matchups. 

In the previous stat dive, it was established that the team’s schemes are nearly identical to last year’s team. But are the Gamecocks executing at the same levels of efficiency? And which players are performing better than expected? We’ve got all that and more on the latest edition of South Carolina men’s basketball stat dive. 

Turnovers, turnovers, and more turnovers

South Carolina basketball has a season average of 13.1 turnovers per game. That’s 14th of 16 SEC teams. Not great by any means, but also not last. However, it’s not a stat that’s improving from game to game. In eight conference games, they’ve eclipsed that rate in seven of those contests. That includes performances of 17 turnovers (Georgia), 19 (Mississippi State), and 25 (Vanderbilt). 

Two of those games were competitive until the final possessions, which seemingly would add to the frustration of losing offensive opportunities. The only conference game in which the Gamecocks didn’t reward the opposition with 13-plus turnovers was against Auburn. That game, too, went down to the wire. 

Though Jamarii Thomas has come off the bench in the past two games, the thought would be that the veteran would stabilize the offense. While he’s provided a spark in terms of points, the team’s ball security is still suffering. 

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Three Gamecocks rank in the top ten SEC players in conference games in terms of turnovers per game. And that’s not a good thing. Jamarii Thomas (3.5 per game), Zachary Davis (3.3), and Collin Murray-Boyles (3.1) all are averaging over three turnovers per game against SEC opponents. 

Arden Conyers (6.4% turnover rate) is the only qualifying Gamecock with a turnover percentage less than 13.0%. Nine Gamecocks are above that threshold. But that’s just a season-long look. 

In SEC games, eight players have played enough minutes to qualify for stats leaderboards in SEC competition. Of those eight, six have a turnover percentage of 20.0% or higher. Only Ugusuk (16.2%) and Conyers (7.0%) have even been average at taking care of the ball. To put it in perspective, Georgia’s full-season turnover percentage of 17.2% is the worst in the conference. South Carolina’s turnover rate in conference games of 20.6% is last in the SEC in conference games.

Examining the last two games

South Carolina basketball, per usual, did give it its best effort in losses against Mississippi State and Georgia. However, the end result was the same: two more conference losses. South Carolina is now 10-11 on the season, the first time they’ve been under .500 since the season-opening loss to North Florida. 

They also carry the dubious distinction of being the only SEC team that hasn’t won a conference game this season. Even Arkansas and LSU have managed a win apiece. The last time the Gamecocks won a regular-season SEC game? An overtime victory on March 9, 2024, against Mississippi State in Starkville. 

Mississippi State

Following a 35-point defeat to the Bulldogs in the first SEC game of the season, the Gamecocks looked better at home in the second go-around. They fell behind by 14 points with under nine minutes to go. That’s when Jamarii Thomas awoke, scoring nine of the team’s last 19 points in regulation. A Zachary Davis steal and score with under 30 seconds to go tied it up in a game that seemed destined for another regulation loss for the Gamecocks. 

South Carolina’s offense took a while to get going, shooting 25.0% from two in the first half. The team was just 1-9, 11.1% from deep in the first. However, in the second half, they were 8-for-17 from inside the arc and 3-for-10 from three. 

In overtime, the offense floundered. The Gamecocks were 1-for-5 from two and 0-for-1 from deep in the extra period. Adding insult to injury, the team was just 3-for-6 from the free throw line, and committed five turnovers in five minutes. That was the nail in the coffin for a chance at an upset win. 

Georgia

Despite a recent skid from the Bulldogs, they looked all the part of a ranked team against South Carolina. Star freshman Asa Newell led Mike White’s crew with 17 points, while Silas Demary Jr., Dylan James, and Dakota Leffew each turned in double-digit scoring performances. 

South Carolina was, at times, the more physical team. They won the rebounding battle, even if by a one-unit margin. They also tallied more assists than Georgia, again by a one-unit margin. But the Gamecocks committed 17 turnovers, with Leffew and Demary Jr. both collecting multiple steals. Asa Newell recorded his fifth double-double of the season against South Carolina, who fell to 0-8 in conference games.  

Quick hitters

Per usual, a break to some easier-to-digest quick facts. 

Collin Murray-Boyles is 8th among qualified SEC players in box plus/minus. He’s sandwiched between Asa Newell and Walter Clayton Jr., not bad company. 

Disregarding sample size, the most efficient lineup for South Carolina is Jamarii Thomas, Morris Ugusuk, Cam Scott, Zachary Davis, and Collin Murray-Boyles. In just seven minutes of action, that group has a +17 plus/minus and is shooting 57.1% from deep. 

In conference games, South Carolina has been disciplined defensively. Their opponents are making just 11.0 free throws/game. That ranks as the lowest mark for SEC defenses. 

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On the flip side, Collin Murray-Boyles has been getting to the line on offense. His 109 free-throw attempts are 8th in the conference. He’s one of four Gamecocks with a FTAr over 50.0%. Pringle, Thomas, and BBV are the other Gamecocks with a penchant for earning free throw attempts.  

Morris Ugusuk has the best 3PT% on the team at 42.1%. Those threes aren’t short, either. 93.4% of those attempts come from NBA-range, the highest mark on the Gamecocks. 

Ugusuk is 7-of-12 (58.3%) on his first attempts from the free throw line in a possession. However, he’s 10-10 (100.0%) on second attempts. Conversely, Collin Murray-Boyles is 44-of-62 (71.0%) on his first attempts and 28-47 (59.6%) on the second. 

In conference games, Jamarii Thomas is 3rd in the SEC with an average of 2.3 SPG. Murray-Boyles is 6th with 2.0 SPG. Despite a 7.5% steal percentage in non-conference games, the Gamecocks have improved to an 11.0% mark in SEC games. That’s in the 71st percentile of D-I teams. 

When Ugusuk and Thomas are both off the court, the team has a net rating of -26.1. That’s in the third percentile nationally. However, when Lamont Paris has both guards on the court at once, the team has a plus/minus of +54 and a +18.8 net rating. 

Which lineup is most dangerous from deep? When Thomas, Wright, Stute, Davis, and Murray-Boyles are on the court, the team makes 53.8% of their threes. 

21.5% of Arden Conyers’s points come on second chances. That’s in the 91st percentile nationally amongst guards. 

What’s next

Unfortunately for South Carolina basketball, the road doesn’t get easier. The grass isn’t greener on the other side. The forks in the road are perpetual. Whatever idiom works best, it is certain that the Gamecocks are facing an uphill battle for their first conference victory. 

South Carolina’s next game is a home date against ranked Texas A&M. Following that, they travel to Rupp Arena to take on a ranked Kentucky squad. We won’t be discussing the next two games after that in depth, but they’re also against ranked opponents (Ole Miss and Florida).

Texas A&M offers a tough task for opposing offenses. Zhuric Phelps is sixth in the SEC with a 4.0% steal rate. Solomon Washington is fifth with a 7.3% block rate. The Aggies are forcing their opponents into a 18.3% turnover rate, 3rd in the SEC. That’s not good news for a Gamecocks offense that has had a tough time controlling the ball. 

The Aggies are 3rd in the conference with 42.0 RPG, and 1st with 16.7 offensive rebounds per game. Henry Coleman III, Pharrel Payne, and Solomon Washington all lead the team with 2.6 offensive rebounds per game. South Carolina doesn’t have a single player at that threshold. 

Kentucky is an elite offensive team. They’re fifth nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. That’s only behind Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and Gonzaga. Go figure that an offense can be top-five nationally and still fourth in the SEC. 

Five Wildcats (Otega Oweh, Lamont Butler, Jaxon Robinson, Koby Brea, and Andrew Carr) are averaging in double figures. South Carolina has just two, Murray-Boyles and Thomas. Kentucky’s eFG% of 58.3% in conference games is first in the SEC. The Gamecocks have an eFG% in that span of just 44.2%, 15th of 16 SEC teams. If there’s a bright side for South Carolina, it’s Kentucky’s defense, or lack thereof. 

As mentioned earlier, Kentucky is good at getting the ball in the hoop. But their adjusted defensive efficiency is 15th of 16 SEC teams, per KenPom. That’s an opportunity for the Gamecocks. The Wildcats, in SEC games, are letting their opponents shoot 57.3% from inside the arc. That’s the worst mark in the conference. If there’s a way for South Carolina to pull off a shock win, it’s through Collin Murray-Boyles. 

Last time the Gamecocks were in Rupp, Meechie Johnson scored 26 and South Carolina left with a win. As a matter of fact, Lamont Paris has never lost to Kentucky. 

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