South Carolina inching toward College Football Playoff territory in ESPN FPI rankings
On Sunday, South Carolina football finally cracked the top-25 rankings in the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll. Selected as the 23rd-best team in the country by both the coaches and the AP, the Gamecocks are 6-3 (4-3) after their third-straight blowout victory in Southeastern Conference play.
ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) model likes Shane Beamer’s squad more and ranks them accordingly.
According to the FPI, South Carolina football is the 14th-best team in the nation. The move to the 14th position is a four-spot jump from last week’s 18th ranking.
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ESPN ranks the Gamecocks 55th nationally in offensive efficiency, meaning USC jumped 16 spots from last week. On defense, Carolina is tied for 3rd in the country in efficiency, a slight positive shift from a week ago. Special teams actually dropped a bit, moving from 63rd to 65th over the last week. Overall, the FPI’s overall efficiency for Shane Beamer’s team is 18th in all of college football.
With the update, the model gives South Carolina football a much better chance of a special season. Now, the FPI projects the Gamecocks to finish with an 8.1-win, 3.9-loss season (implying a 2-1 finish over the last three games of the year). However, the projection also comes with a 30.5% chance of the Gamecocks winning out the rest of the regular season.
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Winning out won’t guarantee Carolina a spot in the College Football Playoff. If the Gamecocks are to have a chance, though, they must go 3-0 down the stretch. The FPI gives South Carolina a 14.2% chance of winning out AND making the CFP. For the first time all season, the Gamecocks are included in the “chance to win National Championship” numbers; the chance is just 0.3% according to ESPN, but it is there, nonetheless.
With three more games remaining, South Carolina will play No. 25 Missouri, unranked/FCS Wofford, and No. 12 Clemson. The Gamecocks’ current strength of record is 17th but could jump substantially with a trio of victories.
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This Saturday, the Gamecocks will return home for another SEC matchup. The Missouri Tigers from the “other Columbia” (FPI ranks: 25th overall, 71st on offense, 17th on defense, and 116th on special teams) will travel to Williams-Brice Stadium for a 4:15 p.m. contest. The Gamecocks and Tigers will have their game broadcast on SEC Network and streamed on the ESPN app. Carolina has not beaten Mizzou since the 2018 game in Columbia, South Carolina. The FPI believes Shane Beamer will exorcise the Eli Drinkwitz demon, giving USC a 69.8% chance of victory.
