Carolina Confidential - Final thoughts on Gamecocks vs. Florida

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One big thing

I don’t know if this feature could start with anyone other than Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson who is the single biggest key to the Gators either having a massive offensive day against the Gamecocks or South Carolina pulling its second straight upset over them.

As we’ve detailed all week, Richardson is big and fast with a rocket arm that is improving in terms of accuracy.

Florida head coach Billy Napier, who Carolina fans are very familiar with, does call the plays for the Gators and has been patient as a playcaller (especially against A&M). What I mean by that is he hasn’t felt compelled to throw the ball, just to throw the ball, and has kept the ball on the ground when it’s working, which is a key fact to note considering the matchup with a Carolina run defense that appeared to be making progress and then took two big steps backward in its last two games.

It’s not just Richardson’s explosiveness that scares you as an opponent, Florida does some things that when combined with their skill talent can be difficult for defenses to stop. You’re likely to see some unbalanced formations (they like to move one of their tackles over to the opposite side of the line to put two tackles on one side), motions, and a lot of RPOs or reads that incorporate power aspects (pulling lineman) while also giving Richardson the option to keep the ball.

In the last two weeks, both Vanderbilt and Missouri have had a ton of “successful” plays in terms of keeping their down and distance situations manageable. While there have been some big plays allowed here and there, for the most part it was a death by 1000 cuts style offense that has given Carolina fits.

I’m not going to sugarcoat it: Carolina is going to have to play way better against the run (and the short perimeter passing game) this week if it’s going to have any chance to stop these guys.

It is, however, sort of interesting that a lot of Florida’s offense has come on big plays and they haven’t been a team that has necessarily been great in its traditional running game (think more along the lines of Richardson making something happen than just a load of successful handoffs).

Unlike Missouri, I do think this is a Florida defense that Carolina will be able to move the ball on and could potentially have a big day against.

So in that respect, the onus may not be on the Carolina defense to shut the Gators down (I don’t see that happening), it’s going to be more about whether can they slow them down enough to keep the score manageable.

There is a path to a win here and I think it looks something like:

1. Carolina’s defense limits Florida’s big plays on offense, forcing them to march the length of the field, which keeps the clock moving, and shortens the game. The Gamecocks get just enough stops, force a FG or two, and make Richardson beat them with his arm a few times (58% passer).
2. The offense leans on last week’s success and uses a combination of ball control with enough of the running game to keep Florida’s pass rush honest and Spencer Rattler has another great game in terms of making decisions and throwing the football.
3. Carolina wins the turnover battle or gets another big special teams play and wins a 34-31 type game.

Three Florida players to know

RB Montrell Johnson (No. 2) – Anthony Richardson is the big-play guy in the running game but Johnson is the workhorse back and Billy Napier has involved the actual running backs in that a lot more than Dan Mullen who relied heavily on the QB run game. Johnson runs with balance and has a knack for being difficult to bring down.

RB Trevor Etienne (No. 7) – Rarely do we feature the same position twice but I expect the Gamecocks to see a heavy dose of both running backs in this one. The brother of former Clemson running back Travis Etienne, Trevor will remind many of his older sibling who now plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The freshman has played in all eight games for the Gators this year, serving as their second back, and is a very patient runner who will sometimes almost pause at the line of scrimmage before attacking the hole.

DE Princely Umanmielen (33) – The best pass-rusher on this team, Umanmielen has a team-high 18 pressures including 4 sacks on the season. Controlling him will be key for a Carolina offense that’s going to need to keep pace with a Florida offense that should have success. Sumter High grad and Palmetto State native Justus Boone has also played well for the Gators at end this year.

What I’m watching for

— With MarShawn Lloyd out again, I expect another heavy dose of Jaheim Bell at running back and I think there’s an opportunity here for him to have a big game. He’s had a good week of practice and is only going to get more comfortable running the ball. I thought there were some near-miss plays last week that could have given him a much better game statistically. At this point, he’s the back on the team who is best at creating or falling forward when there’s nothing there.

While I think Bell will be the workhorse, it’s going to be important for Carolina to continue to spread the wealth and get the other playmakers involved in the running game.

I really liked what we saw with Dakereon Joyner last week and think what Xavier Legette can do with the ball and some space is underrated, so I’d like to see them continue to involve Legette in the rushing attack.

— Not to beat a dead horse but this is a game that a healthy Lloyd could have feasted in. He’s obviously been great at forcing missed tackles and Florida misses a lot of them. I might have called for the upset if he was healthy. Not only does the Lloyd injury hurt at RB but it also keeps Bell from playing tight end as much and the Gators have been awful at covering TEs. I think Carolina will need to still find ways to get him involved at that position and this could be an opportunity for Austin Stogner to have a big day.

— In a lot of ways you are what you are at this point of the season, so there’s only so much the Carolina defense can do to try and throw a curveball at Florida. But I do think there’s a chance you see a personnel package or two that’s different than what we’ve been seeing for the most part to try and mix things up.

— Florida’s best wide receiver Justin Shorter is likely out in this game and his backup Ja’Quavion Fraziars, who filled in well for him, is out too. IF Carolina can make a big jump this week in slowing the run and force the passing game to beat them, this game could completely turn because I like that matchup with the Carolina secondary.

The final prediction

With some of Florida’s defensive struggles, there is an opportunity for South Carolina’s offense to carry over its momentum from the Vanderbilt game and put up some points in this one. But Anthony Richardson and the Gators’ running game is scary considering how easily Missouri and Vanderbilt were able to get to the edges against Carolina. I think the Gamecocks will need to score into the 30s and steal a possession or two to win it. Florida 35, South Carolina 27

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