South Carolina's playoff chances improving according to ESPN FPI
South Carolina won again this weekend, beating the in-state Wofford Terriers 56-12. The win didn’t necessarily help the Gamecocks in the rankings on its own (more on that later), but thanks to a wild weekend around college football, Shane Beamer’s team still is pushing ever closer to College Football Playoff contention.
Seven teams ranked ahead of USC lost, and several of them dropped behind the Gamecocks when the polls updated. The USA Today Coaches Poll slotted South Carolina as No. 14 in their rankings on Sunday afternoon. The AP Poll followed that up with a 16th-ranked spot for USC about an hour later. On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff Ranking will update, as well.
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Because South Carolina played an FCS opponent in Wofford, computer-based metrics didn’t slide the Gamecock higher in their rankings. This is the case in ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index). The FPI, after ranking Carolina 13th last week, slid the Gamecocks down to No. 16.
The ranking stems from an efficiency rating of No. 19 in the country. Offensively, South Carolina is No. 42 overall. Defensively, the Gamecocks are 8th in America. On special teams, USC is No. 75. Those numbers, partnered with a No. 12 strength of schedule, give the 9-3 Gamecocks the 14th-best strength of record in all of college football.
The FPI ranking went down, but a more important number did not. The model improved the team’s College Football Playoff chances drastically. Last week, South Carolina had a 10.9% probability of making the field based on the FPI’s projection. Now, that number is up to 23.1% as of Sunday afternoon.
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At the time of this writing, ESPN gives South Carolina a 43.3% chance of victory on Saturday against Clemson. The rival Tigers are 9-2 and are still mathematically alive for the ACC Championship. Clemson ranks 18th in the FPI and owns efficiency ratings of 6th, 20th, and 127th in offense, defense, and special teams, respectively.
The FPI still projects an 8.4-3.6 regular season record for South Carolina, re-indicating just under a 50% chance of victory this weekend.
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Both South Carolina and Clemson would be eliminated from at-large CFP contention with a loss. A win for USC, though, would put the Gamecocks firmly on the bubble. With a little help from other teams losing, the seemingly impossible could become reality.
In what will be the most highly anticipated South Carolina-Clemson game in recent memory (and, possibly, the most consequential), kickoff is slated for noon in the Upstate. ESPN will broadcast the rivalry contest, and the ESPN app will make it available for streaming.
