National predictions for South Carolina-Missouri
On Saturday, South Carolina and Missouri will meet on the gridiron in the 2024 installment of the Mayor’s Cup. While the teams from the two Columbias both hold to long-shot College Football Playoff hopes, the Gamecocks are playing their best ball, while the Tigers are slipping. Carolina is coming off of three blowout SEC victories in a row. Missouri, meanwhile, nearly lost to a bad Auburn team before getting smacked around by Alabama and escaping with a win against Oklahoma thanks to a Sooners fumble.
Both teams are ranked heading into Saturday’s matchup. The Gamecocks are 23rd in both the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll but 21st in the College Football Playoff Rankings. Missouri, slots in at 24, 21, and 23, respectively, in the same polls.
Despite the fact that USC hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2018, national picks all seem to favor the Gamecocks. South Carolina enters Friday as a 14-point favorite.
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ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor favors South Carolina pretty heavily. The Gamecocks have a 69.6% chance to win the SEC contest. However, ESPN’s SP+ model thinks the game will be tight. According to the model, South Carolina football fans can expect a 26-24 win in which their favorite team does not cover the spread. The “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” is lower on USC’s chances but still gives Shane Beamer’s squad a 56% likelihood of victory.
Speaking with David Pollock and David Rollins on their podcast, Chris “Bear” Fallica picked the Gamecocks. In fact, Fallica said “I love the Gamecocks” against Missouri, pointing out that he believes Carolina to be the country’s best 3-loss team and the Tigers to be one of the biggest “frauds” in college football.
College Football Network’s Will Helms (who also does analytics work for GamecockCentral) picked a blowout. Helms defied CFN’s Playoff Meter (which only gave Carolina a 52.8% chance to win) by claiming a 37-13 shellacking will delight Gamecock fans on Saturday.
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Greg McElroy, who knows what it feels like to lose to South Carolina (he was the starting quarterback for Alabama back for the Gamecocks’ upset of the No. 1 Crimson Tide back in 2010), said on his “Always College Football” podcast that he thinks that the Gamecocks “will have their way” with Missouri this weekend.
The artificial intelligence pick from Fox Sports foresees a Gamecock blowout. The predicted 32-15 margin would be more than enough to cover the spread.
Even local newspaper prognostications favored USC. Lulu Kesin of the Greenville News picked Carolina to win comfortably, but not enough to cover the spread, 24-14. The State‘s Jordan Kaye, though, picked the Gamecocks big, 31-14. In the “other Columbia,” Calum McAndrew went with a 28-14 South Carolina win. The Columbia Daily Tribune writer’s predicted margin would be a cover according to some outlets.
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A win for South Carolina moves the Gamecocks to 7-3 on the season with two games remaining. A nice bowl game (or, perhaps, even a trip to the College Football Playoff?) could be on the line.
