Gamecock football: ESPN FPI's predictions for 2023

ESPN’s annual FPI predictions for the Gamecock football team are out and the percentages favor USC in four games of the 2023 season.

The metric has also set USC’s projected regular season win total at 5.6 games.

It’s worth noting that Shane Beamer’s program has outperformed the FPI’s win total projections in each of his first two seasons in Columbia.

The 2021 FPI had the Gamecocks’ win total at 4.8; USC won 6. Last year, Carolina was pegged by the FPI to win 5.9 games in the regular season and finished with 7.

Here is more from ESPN on the FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Last season, the Gamecocks were given just a 7.8% chance before the 2022 season to beat Clemson on the road.

USC won three more games – Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Tennessee – that ESPN’s FPI had the team with a less than 50 percent chance to win before the year began.

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Here is a game-by-game look at the preseason FPI projections with more information on each contest:

South Carolina vs. North Carolina: 37.6% chance to win

This is a key opener for both teams and will feature plenty of talk about the matchup between quarterbacks Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler.

These teams last got together in Charlotte in the 2021 Duke’s Mayo Bowl, a contest in which USC running back Dakereon Joyner starred as a quarterback and turned in a MVP performance.

ESPN favors the Tar Heels, but this one is largely viewed as a toss-up type of contest.

South Carolina vs. Furman: 94.4% chance to win

While USC is rightfully favored in its first home contest against an FCS opponent, this one will not be a cakewalk.

The Paladins are ranked number six in the country at that level and return a lot of experience from last season’s team.

South Carolina at Georgia: 6.3% chance to win

The Bulldogs are being picked by many to once again win the SEC and possibly a third straight national title. USC has to play UGA in Athens this season, and it will undoubtedly be a tough out. Georgia will likely be favored in every regular season game it plays this year, so USC’s not alone.

South Carolina vs. Mississippi State: 53.2% chance to win

After the unfortunate passing of Mike Leach, former Bulldogs defensive coordinator Zach Arnett is taking over as head coach. The offense is changing and there was some turnover in the portal for this team, too.

The FPI seems to view this as basically a pick ’em, with the Gamecocks grabbing the nod presumably because of home-field advantage.

South Carolina at Tennessee: 22.1% chance to win

The Vols trounced USC in 2021, and Carolina responded with a thrilling home domination in 2022. The Gamecocks have to hit the road to Knoxville this season to match up against a quarterback in Joe Milton that’s gotten a lot of preseason hype, and an offense that is always tough to handle.

South Carolina vs. Florida: 42.7% chance to win

There are a few important toss-up type conference games this season for USC, and this certainly qualifies as one. Each game is critical, of course, but the Gamecocks will be looking to avenge an ugly loss in Gainesville from last year.

Florida still has plenty of talent, especially on defense and at running back, but there are some lingering questions at quarterback. Can USC take advantage?

South Carolina at Missouri: 39.5% chance to win

The Gamecock fan base would love for this streak to be broken; the Tigers have taken four straight in this series and been a thorn in USC’s side.

Missouri should be salty again on defense and the other Columbia can be a tough place to play. With the difficulty of USC’s schedule this season, this one could end up being quite important in terms of notching a win.

South Carolina at Texas A&M: 22% chance to win

USC won its first-ever contest against the Aggies in Williams-Brice last season. A&M has added Bobby Petrino as the offensive coordinator, although it’s still not clear how much Jimbo Fisher will have his hands in things. A&M has a good bit of

South Carolina vs. Jacksonville State: 93.9% chance to win

As mentioned earlier, this season’s schedule is a beast with no “gimme” type contests. USC’s favored big in this one, as it probably should be, but we have seen enough home scares in the past to know that the Gamecocks still have to play well.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt: 76.7% chance to win

After surviving against the Commodores in 2021, USC returns home with another one against Vandy. As usual, the talent differential is going to be in Carolina’s favor but Clark Lea’s team does have some talent and will be a well-prepared bunch.

South Carolina vs. Kentucky: 46.2% chance to win

Another critical SEC East game, and this game has developed into a fun rivalry that’s had some back and forth. Kentucky lost some pieces but had a big offseason in the transfer portal. We’ll know more about both teams by the time this one rolls around in November to have a better feel.

South Carolina vs. Clemson: 22.8% chance to win

USC broke a painful streak against its in-state rival with a cathartic win in Death Valley last season. Now, Carolina looks to win two in a row for the first time since 2012 and 2013.

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