South Carolina women's basketball: Eight preseason predictions

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Before each season I make a series of predictions about the upcoming campaign. Today I present eight elite predictions for the 2024-25 season.

South Carolina will lose a regular season game for the first time since 2021
Why: The schedule is incredibly top-heavy. South Carolina plays the preseason no. 2, no. 4 (twice), no. 5, no. 7, no. 8, no. 9, no. 10, and no. 11. At some point they’ll slip up.

I’ll be wrong if: I learned nothing from last season.

South Carolina still wins the SEC
Why: Because Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks place a priority on winning the conference, and because it’s even sweeter when they beat Vic Schaefer to do it. They are also the most talented team in the SEC and have won it eight times in the last eleven seasons, so don’t overthink this.

I’ll be wrong if: Oklahoma managed to sneak up and win the Big 12 the last two seasons and should be better this season with the addition of Raegan Beers. The Sooners play an unusual style that can give opponents trouble, especially when they are seeing it for the first time.

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MiLaysia Fulwiley will be South Carolina’s leading scorer
Why: I’m not exactly going out on a limb – Fulwiley is the Gamecocks leading returning scorer at 11.7 points. But this year she will be counted on to shoulder a more significant load and I expect her to be up to the challenge.

I’ll be wrong if: Joyce Edwards could score a lot of second-chance points and layups. Or Te-Hina Paopao and Tessa Johnson are both explosive scorers who will have more opportunities this season. 

Either Fulwiley or Edwards will win SEC Sixth Woman of the Year
Why: They might be South Carolina’s two most talented players and they both came off the bench in the preseason. Edwards was South Carolina’s leading scorer and rebounder in the preseason, and we know what Fulwiley can do. 

I’ll be wrong if: There is some Gamecock fatigue. We saw it last season when Ashlyn Watkins was snubbed because they didn’t want to give all the awards to South Carolina. It’s also possible Edwards will play herself into the starting lineup.

Edwards will win SEC Freshman of the Year
Why: Have you seen her play?

I’ll be wrong if: Gamecock fatigue again, and sometimes there is a less heralded player on a bad team who puts up huge numbers and steals the award.

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Raven Johnson leads the SEC in assists
Why: I predicted this last season and was wrong, but I’m not giving up. Last season Mama Dembele came out of nowhere to lead the conference in assists, followed by Lauren Park-Lane and then Johnson. Dembele and Park-Lane have moved on, leaving Johnson to take the lead.

I’ll be wrong if: South Carolina’s balanced attack last season meant a lot of different players played distributor (particularly Paopao, who was ninth in the SEC in assists). That brought Johnson’s totals down.

Paopao will make a run at South Carolina’s three-point percentage record
Why: Tiffany Mitchell set the record of 54.1% in 2013-14. If not for a January slump, Paopao might have done it last season. 

I’ll be wrong if: In the 2013-14 season, Mitchell only attempted 74 threes. Last year Paopao was 87-186. That kind of volume makes it harder to shoot such a high percentage.

Adhel Tac is the main post by the end of the season
Why: Tac might not be the starter, but she’ll be the one who plays the key minutes. She’s got the size to be an instant mismatch for most opponents and has a nice touch around the rim. Dawn Staley has said several times that South Carolina won’t have a traditional post this season, which includes going small with players like Edwards or Sania Feagin at center, but Tac will be the most effective traditional post.

I’ll be wrong if: Tac played barely 20 minutes total in the preseason, and she had half a foot on Clayton State. That’s a limited sample size. It’s possible she isn’t ready like I think she is, or the Gamecocks play small to get their most talented players more playing time.

Bonus:
Ashlyn Watkins will average a double-double and win SEC Defensive Player of the Year
Why: Of all the predictions, this was the one I was most certain of. Everything was lined up for Watkins to have a monster season, and she should have won Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Woman last season. I even told someone over the summer that if Watkins didn’t average a double-double something had gone wrong. Then Watkins was suspended following her arrest on August 31.

I’ll be wrong if: No one has any idea when or if Watkins will play this season. If she does return, she probably won’t be in game shape and will need time to acclimate herself to this season’s team.

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