WBB notebook: The numbers and reasons behind South Carolina's 11-1 start

South Carolina women’s basketball is, again, the highest ranked SEC basketball team. That’s at least according to the latest AP poll, where the Gamecocks are ranked second behind UCLA. The Bruins, of course, are the only team to take down South Carolina in the past 20 months.  

GamecockCentral recently took a dive into the stats and reasons why the Gamecocks’ men’s team was 6-3 before beating Clemson. This week, it’s time to showcase Dawn Staley’s group below the surface. Why is South Carolina dominant again? And why did they falter against UCLA? All that and more in this week’s WBB notebook.

Mirror image or not?

In 2023, South Carolina completed a perfect season with a victory over Iowa in the NCAA Championship. The Gamecocks returned most of their pieces, including 87.1% of their minutes on the court. Of the nine players to record a start last season, only Kamilla Cardoso is no longer a Gamecock. 

After a historic season and lack of exodus, South Carolina received 27 of 30 first-place votes in the preseason AP poll. Since then, they’ve fallen a spot in the rankings after a loss to UCLA. Would last year’s team have won that game? That’s an impossible question to answer, but it does bring up another question that can be answered. Is this year’s team virtually inseparable from last year’s? Or is this team operating completely different from the championship-winning team of 2023-24?

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In terms of style of play and tactics, this is a Dawn Staley team through and through. Since 2019, the past six Gamecocks squads have recorded >50.0% of their points in the paint. In 2023-24, that mark was at 53.3%. This year, without Cardoso, that rate is still virtually the same at 53.6%.  

Inside the arc is where the Gamecocks score most of their points. But are they as efficient as last year from two-point range? Almost. Last season, with Cardoso patrolling the paint, they shot 52.5% from the inside. This season, the team is sitting at 50.5%. Though not as elite of a mark, it’s still quite high nationally at 68th nationally out of 362 D-I teams. 

Cardoso, Ashlyn Watkins, and Sania Feagin all had a 2PT% of 55.0% or higher last year. Through 12 games in 2024-25, only two qualifying players, Maddy McDaniel (61.5%) and Feagin (58.3%) are at that mark. More importantly, however, no player in the regular 10-player rotation shot below 45.0% from two-point range last season. This year, two starters are far below that mark. Bree Hall (34.3%) and Raven Johnson (33.3%) are both struggling on shots inside the arc. 

Johnson appears to simply be in a shooting slump in the early stages of the season. The junior guard shot 48.2% inside and 35.0% from deep last year in a large sample size. So there’s no previous data to suggest that Raven Johnson’s current poor shooting marks will last the whole season. 

Hall, however, is shooting at an elite mark from three despite a lower clip from two-point range. Hall is converting threes at a 47.1% rate, the best mark on the team. In the 2023-24 season, Hall shot 48.4% from two and 38.5% from three. Expect for each of her current shooting rates to fall more in line to those clips and regress to the mean as the season moves onward. 

One elite trait that the 2023-24 Gamecocks had was the ability to send back opponents’ shots. Led by Cardoso, South Carolina led the D-I ranks with 7.8 BPG last season. The senior center paced the team with 2.4/game, and Ashlyn Watkins also contributed 2.3 per contest. MiLaysia Fulwiley, Sania Feagin, Chloe Kitts, and Bree Hall all averaged between 0.5-0.7 BPG as well. 

This season, South Carolina is 16th in D-I with 5.8 BPG. That’s not horrible by any means, but it’s also not at the same level as last season’s interior defense. The Gamecocks don’t have a shot-swatter like Cardoso this season, and Watkins’s production has slipped. The sophomore center still leads the team with 1.8 BPG, but like the team, it’s not at the same level as last year. 

Feagin is collecting 1.2 BPG, but no other Gamecocks are above the 0.6 mark. Kentucky and Mississippi are both averaging more blocks per game than South Carolina in the SEC. Another worrisome slip through 12 games compared to the championship-winning 2023-24 squad is three-point defense. 

One of the strongest perimeter defenses in the nation last season, the 2023-24 Gamecocks held their opponents to a 27.3% clip from deep. That mark was good for 17th nationally. But about a third of the way through the 2024-25 season, this season’s defense with essentially the same perimeter personnel is allowing a 34.0 3PT%.  

Was that a single-game aberration or a reason to worry? Through 12 games last year, the Gamecocks only had two games in which their opponent recorded a 3PT% of 38.0% or more. This year, the team has had five such games, almost half of the games played so far. 

Through 12 games last season, the difference in 3PT% by the Gamecocks vs. their opponents was +15.8. But it’s slipped this year, falling to just +1.2. Is South Carolina taking the same types of shots as last season, but at lower efficiency? Long answer short, yes.

Below is a list of selected spots on the court and the Gamecocks’ 2023-24 efficiencies from those locations. 

FG% at the rim – 2023-24 SC: 62.4% (25.4 FGA/game)

FG% in the paint – 2023-24 SC: 45.3% (15.2 FGA/game)

FG% on mid-range twos – 2023-24 SC: 37.6% (9.7 FGA/game)

3PT% on above-the-break threes – 2023-24 SC: 40.7% (12.0 FGA/game)

3PT% on corner threes – 2023-24 SC: 37.2% (4.7 FGA/game)

And below are the clips and volume of those same ranges for this season’s team. 

FG% at the rim – 2024-25 SC: 61.8% (24.7 FGA/game)

FG% in the paint – 2024-25 SC: 40.5% (15.8 FGA/game)

FG% on mid-range twos – 2024-25 SC: 37.3% (9.2 FGA/game)

3PT% on above-the-break threes – 2024-25 SC: 34.1% (11.3 FGA/game)

3PT% on corner threes – 2024-25 SC: 36.5% (6.2 FGA/game)

That data might be difficult to visualize going back and forth, so below is the difference between this year’s team vs. the 2023-24 championship winners. 

 FG% at the rim  -0.6 FG% (-0.7 FGA/game)

FG% in the paint  -4.8 FG% (+0.6 FGA/game)

FG% on mid-range twos -0.3 FG% (-0.5 FGA/game)

3PT% on above-the-break threes -6.6 FG% (-0.7 FGA/game)

3PT% on corner threes -0.7 FG% (+1.5 FGA/game)

Across the board, this year’s team is simply not shooting the ball as well as they did last year. While the Gamecocks are slightly behind last year in terms of shots at the rim, mid-ranges and corner threes, they’ve taken sharp dives in the paint and on threes above-the-break. (Closer to the middle of the court rather than towards the corners.) 

Even though the types of shots have remained virtually the same, the efficiency has dipped. What changed? Ashlyn Watkins, Chloe Kitts, and Bree Hall’s production in the paint. For the purpose of these stats, “in the paint” means any shot in the paint from further than 4.5 feet away from the basket. 

Last year, Watkins shot 43.4% on these shots. This year? She’s shooting 26.1%. Kitts shot 55.4% last year in that range, best on the team. This year, Kitts is at 37.5%. And Hall shot 50.0% in the paint last year. This year, she’s at 30.8%. That’s three separate drops of at least 17 percentage points, indicative of a larger issue. 

The two most efficient Gamecocks in the paint, Sania Feagin and Maddy McDaniel, are 7th and 9th, respectively, on the team in shots attempted in the paint per game. Conversely, Fulwiley and Watkins are taking the 2nd and 3rd-most shots in the paint on the team. But Fulwiley is 6th on the team in FG% from that range and Watkins is 9th. 

Statistical drop-offs from last year are also responsible for the steep drop in efficiency on above-the-break threes. Last season, the Gamecocks had five qualifying players average at least one attempt per 40 minutes from the above-break three range. This year, they have the exact same five qualifying players averaging at least one attempt/40 minutes from that range. 

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However, the team’s rate from that range is almost seven percentage points lower. Why? Of the five primary shooters from the range, (Tessa Johnson, Raven Johnson, MiLaysia Fulwiley, Te-Hina Paopao, and Bree Hall) just Tessa Johnson (52.9 3PT%) and Bree Hall (40.9 3PT%) are shooting at higher level above-the-break than last season. 

Paopao is shooting 38.5% from that range, which is well above average. But last year’s clip was an astounding 47.1%. That was in the 98th percentile amongst guards last season, so some regression to the mean was expected. Raven Johnson, after posting a 27.1 3PT% on above-break threes as a redshirt freshman in 2022-23, shot 39.5% from that range last year. But this year, her perimeter shooting more resembles her freshman year than last season. Johnson is shooting 26.7% from that range this season, virtually the same as two years ago. 

And the third highest-volume Gamecock that’s dipped in production on above-break threes is MiLaysia Fulwiley. As a freshman last year, Fulwiley converted those shots at a 36.4% rate. This year, she’s shooting 25.0%. Paopao, Fulwiley, and Raven Johnson account for the 1st, 2nd, and 5th-highest volume of shots from that region, respectively, so the team dip in efficiency in that range can be ascribed to individual drops in performance. 

One thing, however, that this year’s Gamecocks team has improved upon is forcing turnovers. Despite a perfect record, South Carolina’s 2023-24 team averaged 8.7 SPG and 15.6 opponent turnovers/game. This year, the Gamecocks are averaging 11.0 SPG and 18.8 opponent turnovers/game. Nationally, the SPG rank has jumped from 82nd to 37th in the D-I ranks. The opponent turnover mark has risen from 167th to 78th. 

A big reason for that? Two highly-rated freshmen. Maddy McDaniel leads the Gamecocks with a 5.2 steal percentage, in the 96th percentile amongst guards. Joyce Edwards is second on the team with a 4.9 steal percentage, good for the 98th percentile amongst forwards/centers. 

Through 12 games, this season’s Gamecocks have compiled four games of 20+ forced turnovers. That includes a game against East Carolina where they forced the Pirates into making 26 giveaways. In the entire 2023-24 season, South Carolina had just three games of 20+ forced turnovers. The 26-turnover mark against ECU is the most for a Dawn Staley team since the Gamecocks forced 27 against Clemson in 2018. 

Outside of the loss to UCLA, the Gamecocks are 11-0 with 10 wins by double digits. That begs the question…

What went wrong against UCLA?

South Carolina wasn’t just beaten by UCLA, they were routed by a team that performed far better than them. By the time the buzzer sounded, the Bruins had won 77-62. As previously mentioned, a big difference between last season and this season has been three-point defense. The Bruins made ten threes, the most against the Gamecocks since the Sweet Sixteen win over Indiana in which the Hoosiers converted 13. 

But South Carolina wasn’t horrible from the perimeter on offense. The Gamecocks made eight threes on just 12 attempts, a 66.7% clip. 

Despite shooting well from outside, South Carolina took 81.8% of their FGA from inside the arc. On those twos, the Bruins defense made life difficult for the Gamecocks. South Carolina finished the game with a 2PT% of 29.6%. Is that bad? It’s not good. 

For context, the worst 2PT% this season is Wagner’s season mark of 36.7%. If any team shot 29.6% from two-point range for an entire season, they would have virtually no chance of making the NCAA tournament. Chloe Kitts was 1-7 inside the arc, while Bree Hall and Raven Johnson were both 0-3. In their last 152 games, South Carolina has only had two games with a 2PT% <30.0%. The other game besides the loss to UCLA was a home loss to NC State in which the Gamecocks managed just 46 points.  

Where did the Gamecocks miss their shots from? They went 2-17 in the paint on offense. That’s an 11.8 FG%. Meanwhile, the Bruins shot 36.4% from the paint and 60.0% on mid-range shots. South Carolina shot 44.4% on mid-ranges, not a bad mark, but they couldn’t convert at the rim, either. 

UCLA managed a 47.1% rate on at-the-rim shots. South Carolina posted their worst mark of the season with a 31.6% clip. The difference in between the two teams’ marks shooting the ball inside was simple: physicality. There’s not a stat for that, but the rebounds tell the story. 

The Bruins, led by Lauren Betts with 14, finished the game with 41 rebounds to the Gamecocks’ 34. That marked the third time the Gamecocks lost the rebounding battle by a 7+ margin in the past two seasons. The other two instances were wins, coming against Michigan this season and LSU last year. 

Analytically against UCLA, the team’s defensive rating of 116.2 (an estimate of points given up per 100 possessions) was their worst in a game since a mark of 118.7 against UConn in 2023. The difference between those two games? South Carolina managed a 124.9 offensive rating against the Huskies in a 81-77 win. The team’s offensive rating against UCLA? 93.5, their lowest in a loss since February 2021, when they lost to Texas A&M 65-57. 

Tactically, South Carolina had their highest 3PT% against UCLA but their lowest 3PAr. On the team’s best three-point shooting day, they took their lowest share of threes all season. That’s an issue with shot selection. 

Another stagnancy with the offense was the lack of fast break points. This season, the Gamecocks are averaging 16.8 fast break points per game. That’s a mark that ranks 11th nationally. But against UCLA, South Carolina couldn’t generate anything in transition. The Gamecocks had just one (1) point produced on the fast break. That marks their least in a game since a 2022 win over Creighton in which the Gamecocks didn’t have any. 

If there’s one positive that the Gamecocks did better than the Bruins, it was the turnover battle. South Carolina forced 17 turnovers, with Ashlyn Watkins, Chloe Kitts, and Maddy McDaniel all collecting multiple steals. Offensively, Tessa Johnson and Te-Hina Paopao were the two bright spots against UCLA. The guard duo combined for 32 points, over half of the team’s total. 

Johnson and Paopao were a combined 12-22 from the floor, good for a 54.5% clip. The rest of the team was 12-44, 27.3% and exactly half as efficient as Johnson and Paopao. 

UCLA is 4th in D-I with 47.7 RPG and 6th with 20.4 APG. Looking around at the SEC, Oklahoma leads the conference in both rebounds and assists per game. If there’s a team in the conference that could handle the Gamecocks the same way UCLA did, it’s Oklahoma. The Sooners have already beaten two ranked opponents, Louisville and Michigan. However, Duke scored 109 points against them. 

Quick hitters

South Carolina is 6th in D-I with 16.8 second-chance points per game. However, they’re 5th in the SEC in that category. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Texas, and LSU all are averaging more. 

After finishing the 2023-24 season 2nd nationally with 33.9 bench points per game, South Carolina has improved their mark this year by over six points. The Gamecocks are averaging 40.6 points from their bench per game. A college basketball team hasn’t finished with 40.0 or more bench points per game, men’s or women’s, since the 2018-19 Troy Trojans.

Bree Hall takes 94.1% of her threes from NBA range, and she connects on 46.9% of them, in the 93rd percentile amongst D-I guards. 

Freshman Maddy McDaniel is drawing a foul on 23.3% of her shot attempts. That’s first on the Gamecocks, and if extrapolated over an entire season, would be the first player at South Carolina to average a >20.0% shooting foul percentage since Brea Beal did so in the 2019-20 season. 

Of McDaniel’s 16 two-pointers made, she has made all of them unassisted. Every other Gamecock has had at least 16% of their twos made on assists. 

44.0% of Chloe Kitts’s assists have come on corner threes, more than double the next closest Gamecock. (21.4% of Ashlyn Watkins’s assists have been on corner threes.) Conversely, just 11.3% of Kitts’s assists have been on threes above-the-break, 2nd-lowest on the team. 

The mid-range is simply Maddy McDaniel’s range. The freshman is averaging 1.0 assist per game in the mid-range region, while no other Gamecock is over 0.3 assists per game in that part of the court. Her only mid-range jumper attempt of the season found the bottom of the net. 

34.2% of MiLaysia Fulwiley’s points have come on the fast break. Though the sophomore is shooting a 38.1 2PT% in half-court sets, she’s converting her twos at a 61.1% clip in transition. 

Ashlyn Watkins has committed 13 defensive fouls this season, but has collected 20 blocks. That block/foul ratio puts her in the 99th percentile amongst D-I players. 

Chloe Kitts’s 6.0 fouls drawn/40 minutes leads the Gamecocks. That mark puts her in the 89th percentile amongst forwards and centers. She’s shooting 83.9% from the line as well, which also leads the team.

When Tessa Johnson and Te-Hina Paopao are both on the court, the Gamecocks have just a 13.7% turnover rate. The Gamecocks’ opponents, however, have a 28.2% turnover rate when Johnson and Paopao are both on the court.

In games against Iowa State, Duke, and TCU, the Gamecocks outscored their opponents by a combined 40 points in the just over 40 minutes that Johnson and Paopao shared the court together.

When MiLaysia Fulwiley and Ashlyn Watkins are both on the court, the Gamecocks have a plus/minus of +126. The team also shoots 50.8% from in-the-paint shots when the Columbia natives share the court. That is despite the team shooting 40.5% in the paint overall across the course of the season.

The most efficient lineup with 10 or more minutes compiled together is MiLaysia Fulwiley, Te-Hina Paopao, Tessa Johnson, Ashlyn Watkins, and Joyce Watkins. In 29 possessions, the quintet has a 2PT% of 70.8%, a 3PT% of 50.0%, a 28.1% steal rate, and 25.0% block rate.

What’s next?

South Carolina has a while before their next game, a home game against Wofford next Sunday. The Terriers are 6-4 on the season, the third-best record in the SoCon behind Furman and ETSU. 

The Gamecocks and Terriers have just one common opponent so far: Duke. South Carolina defeated the Blue Devils 81-70 at home earlier this season. Wofford was defeated in Durham by a 93-58 margin. After beating in-state foe Charleston Southern by 36 points, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar margin against Wofford. 

The first SEC game of the season for South Carolina is a road trip to Missouri on Jan. 2. Despite national dominance over the past several years, the Gamecocks are 2-2 in their last four road trips to Missouri. In 2018, the Tigers beat South Carolina 83-74. In 2021, Missouri won 70-69 in overtime. 

However, Missouri is 13th of 16 teams in the SEC with just 72.6 PPG. The Tigers kicked off this season with a road defeat against Vermont. In their most recent game, they lost at home to Oral Roberts. In between, Missouri lost to Syracuse and Norfolk State, with just one Power Five victory so far, over SMU. If there is an area that Missouri excels in, it’s outside shooting. They’re first in the SEC with a 39.1 3PT%. 

The key to victory for South Carolina could be controlling the boards. The Gamecocks, while not elite, are 7th in the SEC and 29th nationally with 42.8 RPG. Missouri is last in the SEC with 37.7 RPG. That mark puts the Tigers at 167th amongst D-I teams. As long as South Carolina can crash the boards and limit the Tigers’ ability to shoot threes, the Gamecocks should leave the other Columbia with a win. 

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