South Carolina women's basketball: Revisiting my preseason predictions

Last October, I made nine predictions about this season. Let’s go back and see how I did.

Prediction: South Carolina will lose a regular season game for the first time since 2021
Why: The schedule is incredibly top-heavy. South Carolina plays the preseason no. 2, no. 4 (twice), no. 5, no. 7, no. 8, no. 9, no. 10, and no. 11. At some point they’ll slip up.

Right or Wrong? Right. This was an easy prediction, although I don’t think anyone saw that UConn egg coming.

Prediction: South Carolina still wins the SEC
Why: Because Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks place a priority on winning the conference, and because it’s even sweeter when they beat Vic Schaefer to do it. They are also the most talented team in the SEC and have won it eight times in the last eleven seasons, so don’t overthink this.

Right or Wrong? Right. I’m not surprised South Carolina split with Texas. I was more surprised that Texas didn’t slip on along the way. Most teams that aren’t South Carolina do.

Prediction: MiLaysia Fulwiley will be South Carolina’s leading scorer
Why: I’m not exactly going out on a limb – Fulwiley is the Gamecocks leading returning scorer at 11.7 points. But this year she will be counted on to shoulder a more significant load and I expect her to be up to the challenge.

Right or Wrong? Wrong. Fulwiley got off to a slow start this season, trying to do too much. SHe ultimately got back to her spectacular ways, but it opened the door for Joyce Edwards to become the Gamecocks’ leading scorer.

Prediction: Either Fulwiley or Edwards will win SEC Sixth Woman of the Year
Why: They might be South Carolina’s two most talented players and they both came off the bench in the preseason. Edwards was South Carolina’s leading scorer and rebounder in the preseason, and we know what Fulwiley can do. 

Right or Wrong? Right. Fulwiley won, even though she was second-team all-SEC and Edwards, who also came off the bench, was first team. Noo, it doesn’t make any sense. 

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Prediction: Edwards will win SEC Freshman of the Year
Why: Have you seen her play?

Right or Wrong? Wrong. Edwards was everything we’d imagined and more, but Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes was also spectacular. She deservedly took the award.

Prediction: Raven Johnson leads the SEC in assists
Why: I predicted this last season and was wrong, but I’m not giving up. Last season Mama Dembele came out of nowhere to lead the conference in assists, followed by Lauren Park-Lane and then Johnson. Dembele and Park-Lane have moved on, leaving Johnson to take the lead.

Right or Wrong? Wrong. Johnson started the season in a slump, and all her stats went down. It also didn’t help that South Carolina played a slower pace and spread the playmaking responsibility around.

Prediction: Paopao will make a run at South Carolina’s three-point percentage record
Why: Tiffany Mitchell set the record of 54.1% in 2013-14. If not for a January slump, Paopao might have done it last season. 

Right or Wrong? Wrong. Without Kamilla Cardoso drawing double-teams, Paopao didn’t get nearly as many open looks, and her percentage dropped from 46.1% to 36.1%. She also had more responsibilities as a playmaker and driver.

Prediction: Adhel Tac is the main post by the end of the season
Why: Tac might not be the starter, but she’ll be the one who plays the key minutes. She’s got the size to be an instant mismatch for most opponents and has a nice touch around the rim. Dawn Staley has said several times that South Carolina won’t have a traditional post this season, which includes going small with players like Edwards or Sania Feagin at center, but Tac will be the most effective traditional post.

Right or Wrong? Wrong. I whiffed. Tac is smart and has shown flashes, so there is plenty of reason to still be optimistic. But essentially not playing basketball for two years due to injury has set her back further than anyone anticipated. It’s not unusual for posts to take a couple of years to adjust to college (the Aliyah Bostons of the world are the outliers).

Bonus:
Prediction: Ashlyn Watkins will average a double-double and win SEC Defensive Player of the Year
Why: Of all the predictions, this was the one I was most certain of. Everything was lined up for Watkins to have a monster season, and she should have won Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Woman last season. Then Watkins was suspended following her arrest on August 31.

Right or Wrong? Wrong. Watkins only missed one game, but she wasn’t fully in game shape when she returned. By the time she was returning to form, Watkins tore her ACL and was lost for the season.

Scorecard
Right: Three
Wrong: Six

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