South Carolina women's basketball: Ten fearless predictions for the season

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Each fall GamecockCentral makes a series of predictions about the upcoming season. Check back at the end of the year to see how accurate (or not) the predictions are.

Prediction: A Gamecock will win SEC Sixth Woman of the Year.
Why: I don’t know who because South Carolina hasn’t finalized its starting lineup, but it will be a Gamecock. Kamilla Cardoso took home the award last season, and Dawn Staley always likes having a big punch off the bench. The way South Carolina’s roster breaks down this season there will be some extremely talented players coming off the bench, especially at forward with Sania Feagin and Ashlyn Watkins or if MiLaysia Fulwiley builds on her exhibition performance.
I’ll be wrong if: There’s too much depth. Think of the 2021-22 season, when the Gamecocks were so deep that in each game a different player could be called on to play major minutes. That could happen this season too.

Prediction: South Carolina will add an SEC banner
Why: Few coaches put as much emphasis on winning their conference as Dawn Staley. The Gamecocks may not sweep the regular season and tournament again, but they’ll add at least one trophy to the case. It helps that the SEC tournament, which some other coaches deemphasize – most notably defending national champion Kim Mulkey – is in Greenville again. 
I’ll be wrong if: The margin for error in the regular season tends to be about one game. Lose one game you shouldn’t and you need help. That could easily happen to inexperienced South Carolina. Suddenly you end up a four seed and the tournament road is much more difficult. 

Prediction: The sellout streak continues
Why: Hosting UConn on Super Bowl Sunday, for one thing. It is the most obvious candidate to extend South Carolina’s streak of having at least one sellout every season since 2015-16 (excluding the pandemic season). It’s a marquee matchup plus it will have the full weight of the ESPN hype machine building it up. There could be other candidates, like the season finale against Tennessee.
I’ll be wrong if: Columbia is swallowed up into the depths of the earth in the very near future.

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Prediction: South Carolina will lose 3-5 games
Why: The non-conference schedule is loaded. The SEC is loaded. The travel and extracurriculars of the Paris trip could result in a distracted team for Notre Dame and the home opener against Maryland. There will be some losses. But, since 2013-14, South Carolina has lost more than five games only twice: 2017-18 (7) and the dysfunctional 2018-19 (10). The first team was hopelessly thin after Allisha Gray and Kaela Davis left early for the WNBA and Lindsey Spann suffered a season-ending injury. The latter was, well, a mess. So five is the upper limit. Three is the lower limit because there will be growing pains. Fortunately, the selection committee cares less about who you lost to and more about who you beat, and the Gamecocks have plenty of chances for big wins.
I’ll be wrong if: The growing pains last all season. There are certainly more than five teams on the schedule capable of beating the Gamecocks. 

Prediction: South Carolina makes the Final Four
Why: Before the exhibition, this said Elite Eight. I’m usually the one screaming don’t trust an exhibition, but South Carolina looked really good. The field is wide-open this year, with probably 8-10 teams that have legitimate Final Four expectations, but the Gamecocks are as talented as all of them if not more.
I’ll be wrong if: That wide-open field means some very good teams are going to be on the outside looking in. It could be the Gamecocks.

Prediction: Raven Johnson leads the SEC in assists per game
Why: I’m a Raven truther. She makes passes other point guards can’t even imagine. Everyone likes her. She forces her teammates to be better. She is fearless and confident, and this is her team. The Gamecocks will be more of an uptempo team this season, which means even more assists for Raven. Last season she averaged 3.4 assists per game despite only playing 18.7 minutes. She should play 25-30 minutes this season, which equates to about 5 assists per game. That’s a conservative estimate (she had nine in 20 minutes in the exhibition), but still more than the 4.6 that led the SEC last season.
I’ll be wrong if: The Gamecocks play selfishly. Raven can make her teammates better, but they also need to let her take charge. If everyone tries to go one-on-one she won’t have an opportunity to make passes. It’s what we saw at the AmeriCup Tournament.

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Prediction: Ashlyn Watkins dunks at least four times
Why: She dunked twice last season, and if her playing time doubles then so should her dunks. Plus she has had an outstanding offseason and by all accounts is poised for a huge year.
I’ll be wrong if: Dunks take a little luck. It’s possible Watkins doesn’t get the runouts or there’s the flyby that makes her hesitate just enough to not throw it down.

Prediction: South Carolina shoots at least 35% from three
Why: 35% is the best single-season team average the Gamecocks have had under Staley, and that came in 2019-20. South Carolina shot 31% as a team last season, but has improved the three-point shooting at every starting position except center. Te-Hina Paopao, a high-volume and high-percentage shooter, will be the biggest difference-maker, but freshmen backups MiLaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson should also contribute long-range shooting.
I’ll be wrong if: There is almost no doubt South Carolina will be a better three-point shooting team, but the team percentage tends to be less about the good shooters and more about the bad shooters opponents can goad into shooting a lot. Think Brea Beal during her first three seasons or Raven Johnson and Kierra Fletcher last year.

Prediction: Tessa Johnson is the new fam favorite
Why: With Olivia Thompson off traveling the world, the role is open. Tessa has an engaging personality, a quirky (to Southerners) accent, and a big smile that fans will love. She’s also a knockdown shooter who may not play major minutes, but that will only endear her to the fans even more.
I’ll be wrong if: It’s hometown hero MiLaysia Fulwiley instead.

Prediction: The season is going to be lots of fun
Why: Last season was almost boring – the Gamecocks were so good the only thing that mattered was whether they could repeat. Even the undefeated regular season got overlooked because South Carolina was just trying to stay in front of LSU in the SEC race. This season is wide-open with players who have teased us with their talent before and now get to be the stars, a bumper crop of newcomers, and a schedule full of major opponents.
I’ll be wrong if: It all falls apart. The players who shined in limited roles aren’t ready for the bright lights, and the team never finds its identity (like 2019).

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