South Carolina women's basketball: Ten preseason predictions revisited

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Before the season I made ten predictions (and one bonus). All but one has been proven either right or wrong, so let’s look at how I did.

Prediction: Aliyah Boston repeats as SEC player of the year

My reason: The votes for SEC awards tend to be conservative, favoring previous winners. And Boston is the best player in the league. In fact, I bet more pixels are spent talking about a statue than whether she’s player of the year.

I’ll be wrong if: This season’s weaker schedule could mean more blowouts, meaning Boston plays fewer minutes and her statistics drop. If someone else puts up huge numbers (Angel Reese and Jordan Horston come to mind) the numbers might win out. The same goes for national player of the year, where voters like change over consistency.

Result: Correct. And correct about Boston’s numbers being down. But she was at her best in the biggest games and that carried her to another win.

Prediction: Raven Johnson wins the starting point guard job

My reason: Johnson has a higher ceiling than Kierra Fletcher, but admittedly a lower floor. I think the ceiling wins out. Johnson was able to mentally study last season when she wasn’t playing, and she has natural point guard instincts. Fletcher has been hampered by some nagging injuries this preseason that have limited her preparation.

I’ll be wrong if: If Johnson’s knee injury lingers, Fletcher’s veteran savvy would give her the role.

Result: Initially correct, but wrong overall. Johnson started the first two games but then Fletcher took over the job. 

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Prediction: Zia Cooke has a bounce-back season (13+ ppg and 38% shooting)

My reason: I’m really just playing the percentages. Cooke averaged 12.0 points as a freshman and 15.9 as a sophomore and shot 39% from the floor in both seasons. She shot 35% from three as a freshman and elevated that to an efficient 39% as a sophomore. Last season she shot just 29% from three and 34% overall while averaging 10.7 points. Her track record suggests last season was an anomaly, but she is also one of the most dedicated, hardest-working players on the team. She’s motivated to get her shot straightened out.

I’ll be wrong if: Cooke’s slump was caused by Boston. Boston became the focal point of the offense last season (for good reason), which required a slower pace. That meant fewer fast break opportunities and easy shots for Cooke. Boston will be the focal point again so Cooke could endure the same problem.

Result: Correct. Cooke is averaging 15.3 points and shooting a career-best 41%. She has improved her efficiency, defense, and playmaking for the best season of her career.

Prediction: Ashlyn Watkins will dunk in a game this season

My reason: South Carolina’s non-conference schedule is full of likely blowouts. That means plenty of fourth-quarter garbage time when Watkins will get uncontested runouts.

I’ll be wrong if: It doesn’t take much to throw off an attempt. One defender running by, or a mistimed step, can be enough to throw things off.

Result: Correct. It took all of three games for Watkins to throw one down after she got a steal at Clemson. She also dunked against Charleston Southern for the first dunk in Colonial Life Arena history.

Prediction: South Carolina goes 29-1

My reason: Despite the relatively weak schedule, I can’t bring myself to say they’ll go undefeated. South Carolina never should have come close to losing to Missouri last season, and yet it did. South Carolina will slip up somewhere, maybe at Stanford or Tennesse, or maybe against someone unexpected.

I’ll be wrong if: South Carolina doesn’t slip up. I think I’d be more surprised if the Gamecocks lose two or more games than if they go undefeated.

Result: Wrong. The slip-up never came. There were a couple of close calls, but the Gamecocks’ veteran experience and calm in pressure moments won out.

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Prediction: Brea Beal finally makes the SEC All-Defensive team

My reason: She should have been on it the last three seasons. The public perception will finally catch up to the performance.

I’ll be wrong if: Voters continue to use points scored as a metric for defense.

Result: Correct. Finally.

Prediction: South Carolina’s sellout streak continues with the LSU game

My reason: Aside from the 2021 pandemic season, South Carolina has had one sellout every season since 2016 (and two in 2020). This season’s home slate is light on marquee games, except for one. Anticipation for this game has been building since the day LSU hired Kim Mulkey. It’s a Sunday afternoon contest and both teams should be highly ranked and in the thick of the SEC championship race, perfect for a big crowd.

I’ll be wrong if: You people somehow have something better to do on February 12.

Result: Correct. The budding rivalry sold out well in advance and the crowd didn’t disappoint. On top of the sellout, it was the most-watched regular season game since 2010.

Bonus Prediction: The Georgia game is also a sellout

My reason: Senior Day for Aliyah Boston, Zia Cooke, Brea Beal, Laeticia Amihere, and Olivia Thompson, the quintet responsible for arguably the greatest four-year run ever in any sport at South Carolina. All five are eligible to return next season, but it’s almost certain all five won’t be back. They should raise a blank banner next to A’ja Wilson’s and let everyone draw in the “4” for the next five years. They gave out pearls for A’ja’s Senior Day, I don’t know what they can do for this group.

I’ll be wrong if: FAMs suddenly become ungrateful. LSU is the bigger, better game, but this one has more meaning.

Result: Correct. The “Freshies” got the sendoff they deserved.

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Prediction: South Carolina wins at UConn

My reason: The game is going to get the blockbuster treatment from Fox, a side skirmish in the network’s college football war with ESPN. UConn is depleted, with Paige Bueckers and freshman Isuneh Brady out for the season. In the past, UConn’s weak conference schedule has enabled the Huskies to look ahead to the Gamecocks. This season, the Gamecocks should get that luxury, plus the program still has never won at Connecticut. That’s motivation for a group that has accomplished almost everything else.

I’ll be wrong if: You could basically flip all that and say UConn is a talented team with the home crowd looking to prove itself in front of a huge audience.

Result: Correct. South Carolina didn’t have its “A” game and UConn arguably played its game of the year, but the Gamecocks still came out on top. 

Prediction: ESPN still makes every game a “what if” for Paige Bueckers

My reason: It’s ESPN. It’s what they do. And when they are done with Bueckers, they’ll bring up Caitlin Clark and how she led Iowa to the championship game Final Four Elite Eight … halfcourt shot.

I’ll be wrong if: Hell freezes over.

Result: Mostly incorrect. The incredible rash of injuries at UConn actually diminished the attention given to Bueckers since she was already out for the year. Cameras still focused on her nonstop during games, however, so I wasn’t completely wrong.

Prediction: South Carolina wins the SEC tournament and cruises to the Final Four

My reason: The Gamecocks don’t have to leave the Iodine State until the Final Four – the SEC tournament and NCAA regionals are in Greenville. They’ll get a home crowd all the way, and I’d make the same pick without the crowd.

I’ll be wrong if: Weird things can happen when you play three games in three days (see: last year).

Result: Pending. South Carolina cruised through the SEC Tournament, but the next part is what really matters.

How did I do? Of the 11 predictions, I got seven right, two wrong, one mostly wrong, and one that is too soon to tell.

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