MBB notebook: The numbers and reasons behind South Carolina's 6-3 start

South Carolina basketball is, record-wise, last in the SEC. Partially, that’s due to roster departures from last year’s NCAA Tournament team. But maybe more so, the SEC as a whole has taken a jump forward. 

There’s a scene in The Office, season two, where Michael Scott asks Toby Flenderson, “Why are you the way that you are?” And while that question in that context is obviously accusatory, it’s a question that in a vacuum is a pretty solid query. Why is South Carolina basketball currently, for better or worse, 6-3? Let’s dive into the numbers.

The SEC’s newfound dominance

It’s not, statistically, an exaggeration to say the 2024-25 SEC could be the best conference of the 2020s. South Carolina basketball is rated 66th in the latest KenPom ratings, as of Dec. 11. Though, that would put them eighth of 14 teams last year; they’re last in a now-16-team league. 

Of the Power Five leagues from the 2020-21 to the 2024-25 season, (formerly Power Six prior to the near-dissolution of the Pac-12) only 2021-22 West Virginia (66th) and 2022-23 Texas Tech (63rd) have finished the year with an equal or better KenPom rating as a conference caboose than South Carolina has through nine games this year. Both teams came from a 10-team conference at the time, as well. The SEC, of course, is up to 16 members. 

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Just from a shooting perspective, five teams in the SEC last year had a >35.0 3PT%. This year, eight teams have a mark of 35% from deep or better, including South Carolina. Though some statisticians would argue that there will inevitably be a regression towards the mean once non-conference games wrap up, there might not be truth to that. In fact, following last year’s non-conference schedule, just three teams were at the 35% mark. Auburn and LSU improved their season marks above that threshold during the conference schedule. 

Though that’s just one stat example, and not even a catch-all metric, it does its job. The SEC has imported talent across the board, and it shows. The conference is, as of Dec. 11, 128-19, or a .871 winning percentage. That’s first out of 31 D-1 conferences, and by a large margin. The gap between the SEC and the second-highest mark (the Big 10 with .744) is larger than the gap between the Big 10 and the MVC, the eighth-highest conference (.620) in terms of winning percentage.

Not all of South Carolina men’s basketball’s problems exist because of the greater powers of the SEC. But that certainly can illuminate issues with the Gamecocks. Below is a list of selected statistics with South Carolina’s 2023-24 non-conference marks and 2024-25 non-conference marks side by side. Also included are their respective ranks in the SEC that year. 

eFG% – 2023-24 SC: 52.5% (9th of 14) / 2024-25 SC: 53.8% (14th of 16)

Net Rating – 2023-24 SC: +19.3 (6th of 14) / 2024-25 SC: +11.9 (16th of 16)

3PT% – 2023-24 SC: 34.8% (4th of 14) / 2024-25 SC: 36.0% (7th of 16)

Defensive Rating – 2023-24 SC: 98.4 (4th of 14) / 2024-25 SC: 101.2 (15th of 16)

Overall, shooting-wise, South Carolina has improved compared to the last non-con schedule. But the SEC as a whole has improved at a higher rate. The Gamecocks have raised their 3PT% by over one percentage point, yet still have dropped comparatively. Defensively, they’ve dropped by a small margin (a lower defensive rating is better) but that was enough to slip to (almost) last in the conference this year. 

Examining the Gamecocks

As previously stated, the SEC’s relative dominance isn’t to blame for South Carolina’s three losses, or its six wins. After all, the Gamecocks haven’t played an SEC opponent yet. 

In terms of basic stats, South Carolina is averaging 75.1 PPG. Last year, they averaged 72.1 points per game over the entire season and 75.5 PPG in non-conference games. This year, the Gamecocks are averaging 14.6 assists per game. Last year, they averaged 15.4 APG in both the conference and non-conference portions of the schedule. 

The loss of Cooper

While it’s a minuscule drop in terms of assists, it could be indicative of a deeper problem. South Carolina has less assists per game despite four more possessions per game on average than last season. There are multiple variables in play, but one is quite simple: the loss of Ta’Lon Cooper.  

Last season, Cooper had a 3.51:1 assist/turnover ratio, in the 99th percentile amongst D-1 guards. Jacobi Wright also had a assist/turnover ratio over 3:1, with a 3.05:1 mark. This season, the team’s leader in assist/turnover ratio is Zachary Davis with a 2.71:1 ratio. That’s good, in the 91st percentile, but still not in the realm of Cooper. 

One of the team’s biggest strengths last year was limiting turnovers. The Gamecocks finished with the second-lowest number of turnovers per game with just 10.1 per contest. Having a lead distributor like Cooper was a huge reason why. This season, they’re up to 11.2 turnovers per game. 

Despite a team turnover rate of 13.2% last season, the Gamecocks did have five lineup combinations with a turnover rate of 7.0% or less. Four of those five combinations included Ta’Lon Cooper on the court. Overall, when Cooper was on the court, South Carolina’s turnover percentage was 12.4%. When Cooper wasn’t on the court, it ballooned to 17.8%. 

How big is that difference? A team mark of 12.4% would have ranked 2nd in the SEC last year. A mark of 17.8%? Dead last. 

The loss is showing up in this year’s stats, too. Last year, 91.6% of 3PM by the Gamecocks were off an assist. That was 19th amongst all D-1 teams. And during their last five games of the season, it jumped up to 97.1%, first in the nation. 

But this year, just 80.3% of 3PM are assisted. That might not seem like a huge drop-off, but it is. South Carolina is 270th in that mark this year. 

How can we be sure it was Cooper’s doing? Cooper averaged 1.7 assists over 40 minutes on three-pointers above the break. This year, despite a smaller, 8-man rotation, the closest Gamecock is Jacobi Wright with 1.4 assists over 40 minutes on above-break threes. 

And despite the team assisting on 89.9% of above-the-break threes last year, that number has fallen off a cliff this season to 74.6%. Nationally, that’s a drop from 19th in D-1 to 278th. Is that bad? It’s not good. 

Besides the team’s turnover percentage rising and assist numbers falling after Cooper graduated, it’s also worth noting that he provided a variety in ball distribution. Last year, five different players had at least 25.0% or more of their assists to one scorer. 

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They are, in order of highest percentage to lowest, B.J. Mack with 39.5% of his total assists to Cooper, Murray-Boyles at 26.5% to Mack, Myles Stute at 25.9% to Cooper, Davis at 25.6% to Murray-Boyles, and Meechie Johnson at 25.3% to Mack.  

This year, there are six players with 25.0% or more of their assists going to one player. Is that good? Not in this case. 50.0% of Morris Ugusuk’s assists have gone to Murray-Boyles. 47.4% of Zachary Davis’s assists have gone to Murray-Boyles. 44.4% of Stute’s assists have gone to…Murray-Boyles. Jacobi Wright, Jamarii Thomas, and Nick Pringle round out the list, with Murray-Boyles being the top scorer on their assists as well. It points to a lack of variety in the offense. 

Does that mean the offense is less effective? We’ll get to that. But it does raise the next question. 

Is the offense one-dimensional?

There are multiple ways to go about answering this question. First off, does one-dimensional mean resorting to one style of offense or one player getting a majority of opportunities? It’s possible to answer both and come to a conclusion. 

South Carolina basketball was reliant on the three last year…to the extreme. Despite a slow pace of play (12th-slowest in D-1, per KenPom), their 3PAr, or percentage of shots taken from three, was 43.3% in non-conference games. That mark was third in the SEC in non-SEC games. 

This year, the Gamecocks are taking 42.5% of their shots from deep, virtually the same. However, it is seventh in the conference, closer to the median. 

One thing the team has improved upon is getting to the line, and that’s affecting their style of play. Last year, over the course of the season, the Gamecocks had a FTAr of just 31.8%. So for every 100 shot attempts, the team would attempt 31.8 free throws. 

This year, they’ve bumped that number up to 43.3%, top-30 in the nation. That should be a good thing. However, the Gamecocks aren’t necessarily adept at making free throws, which negates the potential benefits. 

South Carolina is making only 66.0% of their free throw attempts this season. So despite averaging the 5th-most attempts from the line in the conference, they’re only 9th of 16 teams in free throws made per game. 

Last season, Mack, Johnson and Ugusuk all tallied a FT% above 75.0%. This year, no player is above that threshold, though Myles Stute and Morris Ugusuk are right at 75.0%. Thomas leads the team with 5.9 FTA/per game, but he’s shooting just 64.2%, the lowest qualifying mark on the team other than Cam Scott’s 57.1%. 

Time for some math. If this season’s team shot the same amount of free throws as they have this year, but at last season’s percentage made, they’d be averaging +1.22 more points per game this year. Doesn’t seem like much? That’s because it’s not. 

Because, believe it or not, the offensive approach is, from a pure standpoint of where shots are taken from, is the same Lamont Paris philosophy. The team doesn’t shoot many mid-ranges. (Only Wright averages more than 1.0 mid-range shot per game.) They don’t shoot many shots that aren’t either at the rim or three-pointers. 

That’s Paris’s offensive philosophy, and it hasn’t changed. 78.4% of the Gamecocks’ shot attempts have been either at the rim or from deep this season. Last year, that mark was at 72.1%. That’s not a huge difference, and most of it comes from a slight increase (32.4% to 36.5%) in shots at the rim. 

It might seem like the offense has changed method-wise because it has changed execution-wise. But statistically, both on the surface and below the surface, this is another Paris offense. It doesn’t have a Ta’Lon Cooper, so it looks different than last year. But just because it’s more of a by-committee approach, it doesn’t mean the dogma changes. 

Instead of different players taking a different approach offensively, it’s different players taking the same approach. But because of not having a clear lead distributor, it’s taken longer for the team to become cohesive on the offensive end. It may come with time. 

Ultimately, however, the offense isn’t one dimensional. Murray-Boyles is averaging 16.0 PPG, and it seems like he’s the heartbeat of the offense (he is), but there are layers. Thomas’s 22 points against ECU is an example of that. 

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Quick hitters

Before a return to a deeper statistical analysis: a break to some easier-to-digest quick facts. 

Collin Murray-Boyles is third in the SEC with 11.8 points in the paint per game. His 6.6 FGA per game from at the rim is in the 99th percentile. The potential lottery pick is one of just five players in the SEC with over 5.0 fouls drawn/game. 

The team attempts just 11.3% of their shot attempts from the corner three spot. But 30.8% of Stute’s shot attempts come from that position on the floor. He’s making those 37.5% clip. 

Davis is uniquely effective in the half-court offense, shooting 65.2% from two in half-court sets. That’s second on the team, behind just Murray-Boyles. However, Davis takes 17.2% of his shots in transition. That’s the highest mark on the team, but he’s shooting just 55.6% from two in transition. In short, he’s been very efficient in a slower-pace offense, Paris’s specialty. But he hasn’t been efficient in transition, despite taking a higher percentage of his shots in those situations compared to any of his teammates. While confusing on the surface, the discrepancy means there’s potential for Davis to take the next step offensively.

Stute is shooting better from deep (31.0 3PT%) than from inside the arc (30.0 2PT%). Meanwhile, though, Thomas is shooting just 41.3% from two (30th percentile), he’s 40.0% from deep (78th percentile).

Though the team’s FTAr is 43.3%, Pringle’s is 97.6%, in the 97th percentile even amongst forwards/centers. He shot 54.2% from the line in the first four games of the season. However, the Alabama transfer has a 82.4 FT% over the last five contests.

In the 33 offensive possessions following a timeout, South Carolina is averaging 1.09 PPC (points per chance). This ranks in the 90th percentile nationally and is South Carolina’s most efficient on-court scenario on offense.

Defensively, the Gamecocks are giving up 1.20 PPC following a floor foul. That’s in the 4th percentile amongst D-1 defenses, and South Carolina’s least efficient defensive scenario.

Scott’s 27.3 TS% is last in the SEC out of 131 qualifying players. However, his turnover rate of just 8.7% is 2nd-best on the Gamecocks and a top-30 mark in the conference.

Stute is 3rd in the SEC with an 80.8% 3PAr, with his offense living almost entirely at the perimeter.

Murray-Boyles’s 25.5% defensive rebounding rate is the highest mark by an SEC player 6’8″ or shorter.

The Gamecocks are averaging just 4.7 steals per game, the fewest in the SEC. Five SEC teams are averaging twice as much steals per game than South Carolina.

Ugusuk wasn’t mentioned in the quick hitters. That’s because the next section is entirely dedicated to him.

Morris Ugusuk and the value of a well-timed three

Just how good is Morris Ugusuk? Short answer: very good. Even shorter answer: extremely. South Carolina is a team that shoots a lot of threes. That has been a staple of Lamont Paris’s offenses in the past three seasons. 

Ugusuk is shooting 53.1% from deep, and is taking 86.5% of his shots from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 6.0 3PM/100 possessions, 2.2 more than the closest Gamecock in the 8-man rotation. But it’s not just at the team level. Ugusuk is one of the most efficient shooters in the nation. That’s not exaggeration.

(Graph created at cbbanalytics.com)

Three Gamecocks are visible on this chart, which compares 3PAr (percentage of shots taken from deep) and 3PT%. The top right corner is where a three-point shooter wants to be. And that’s exactly where Ugusuk is.

Who are all the dots on the chart? Every D-1 player with at least 25 3PA and 96 minutes played. If a player is visible, they’re most likely an outlier of some sort. If they’re visible in the upper right-hand corner, they’re among the country’s best perimeter threats. Consider Ugusuk one of the country’s best perimeter threats.

(Graph created at cbbanalytics.com)

Ugusuk only has 37 shot attempts this season (32 of those are from deep), so he’s not eligible for this chart. But with a 75.3 TS% (takes into account twos, threes, and free throws) and a 86.5% 3PAr, he’d be right above Tyler Lundblade of Belmont, indicated by an arrow and his initials.

As a freshman, Ugusuk shot just 29.2% from deep on 1.6 attempts per game. Now averaging 3.6 attempts from deep per game, he’s almost doubled his success rate. No other returnee from the 2023-24 roster has managed to double their previous scoring output. Ugusuk has more than tripled his scoring average from last season so far.

Ugusuk hasn’t recorded a block this year. He is averaging less than 1.0 RPG and less than 1.0 APG. But he’s blossomed into an elite shooter. For a team that takes as many threes as South Carolina basketball, the sophomore has a case to be not just the most valuable shooter in the program, but in the conference as a whole.

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What’s Next?

South Carolina basketball only has four non-conference games remaining: home games against USC Upstate, Clemson, Radford and Presbyterian. What do the Gamecocks need to do to improve before conference games?

First, finding open looks inside the paint. South Carolina’s 53.8 eFG% is 14th in the SEC, despite their a 36.0 3PT% ranking 7th in the conference. The Gamecocks are shooting 53.7% from inside the arc, 14th in the SEC.

The Gamecocks are also one of just four teams in the conference with <10.0 offensive rebounds per game. South Carolina is averaging a combined 7.7 steals+blocks per game. However, eight SEC programs are averaging >7.7 SPG alone. Forcing turnovers (the Gamecocks are currently 330th in D-1 with just 10.2 opponent turnovers per game) is a must.

With such a deep league in the 2024-25 season, South Carolina’s main priority is becoming consistent inside the arc on offense. If the threes dry up for a 40-minute stretch, a third plan (besides forcing the ball in to Murray-Boyles) is needed.

Ultimately, South Carolina basketball’s immediate future is dependent on if their current eight-man rotation can survive an absolute gauntlet. Currently, they’re on the outside looking in when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament.

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