What to watch for: South Carolina travels to Mississippi State

Things couldn’t be worse for South Carolina after a 40-point loss to No. 12 Tennessee.

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Gamecocks will head to Starkville to take on Mississippi State.

It’s the second meeting between the two clubs this season. The Bulldogs came to Columbia and won 66-51 on Jan. 31. Here’s what to watch for Tuesday night.

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What version of South Carolina will come to play?

Last week featured a tale of two games for South Carolina. One was good, the other was on the end of a 40-point loss.

The Gamecocks took second-ranked Alabama to overtime Wednesday, leading for more than 18 minutes of the game. However, they couldn’t stop Brandon Miller, who finished with a career-high 41 points. The Crimson Tide won 78-76 in overtime.

GG Jackson and Meechie Johnson played 43 minutes. Jacobi Wright added 37 while both Josh Gray and Hayden Brown played at least 30. It was not just a physical game but also an emotionally-draining one.

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With a tired team and facing an opponent needing a win, the Gamecocks were outmatched. Tennessee outscored South Carolina 47-19 in the second half, rolling to a 40-point win.

Brown was the only starter to score in double figures, finishing with 18 points on 7-of-14 shooting. Meanwhile, the four other starters — Jackson, Wright, Johnson and Josh Gray — combined for 20 points on 9-of-33 shooting.

Paris has been complimentary of his team’s resolve after losses, and the Gamecocks will need to be it again against another physical Mississippi State team.

Getting going from three-point range

It’s almost a given at this point. If South Carolina hit its three-pointers, there’s going to be a chance to win.

If not, things can get ugly. In Knoxville, the Gamecocks had one of their worst shooting nights, finishing 4-for-22 (18.2 percent) from beyond the arc. It’s an even worse stat when compared to Tennessee who shot 43.5 percent.

Mississippi State has been good at defending against the three this season with SEC opponents shooting 32.3 percent. The Gamecocks managed to shoot better from three when they played the Bulldogs in January but still lost by 15. Something has to change.

It starts with Johnson who can arguably be the best player on the floor if he’s right. If not, he struggles to stitch together efficient nights. After knocking down four threes against Alabama, he missed all five of his attempts against the Volunteers.

It doesn’t look like it’ll happen yet but getting Chico Carter Jr. back would be a plus. He’s been absent for the past three games dealing with knee tendinitis. If he’s not back, South Carolina will need its other sharpshooters to step up.

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Preventing points off turnovers

South Carolina has a tendency to play carelessly at times. All season, turnovers have been a major issue for the group, ranking dead last in the SEC in turnover percentage.

What hurts more than that is how teams are taking advantage of those mistakes. Tennessee made the Gamecocks look silly, forcing 14 turnovers and scoring 21 points off them. Even against Mississippi State earlier this year, it put up identical numbers.

The Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the country at creating turnovers, averaging almost 15 per game. South Carolina has to find a way to limit its mistakes and score more points.

Winning a game like this could be huge

Each of South Carolina’s three conference wins have come on the road. Who’s to say it can’t squeak out one more before season’s end?

While the Gamecocks are sitting toward the back of the SEC standings, a win against Mississippi State could be big. After this, they’ll head back home to close out the regular season against Georgia, a team they nearly beat one month ago. Plus, the Bulldogs are in a free fall, being blown out in their last three games.

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This isn’t saying that if South Carolina wins the next two games it can run the table in the SEC Tournament. It’ll enter Nashville playing on day one and needing five wins in five days to make the NCAA Tournament.

It’s not likely that will be the case. It would take a Cinderella run to even get to that point. However, if the Gamecocks can pull off a win in Starkville, winning on Saturday feels doable. It would make a world of difference going into the tournament on a two-game win streak compared to being losers of four straight.

Scouting the opponent

According to Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, Mississippi State could be one of the last four in. Meaning if things hold up, it will play into March.

The Bulldogs have some quality wins on their schedule against Marquette, TCU and most recently Texas A&M.

Since beating South Carolina the first time, they’ve gone 5-2 over their last seven games. Getting that win over the Aggies Saturday was huge.

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Offensively, this group is nothing special. It ranks second-worst in the SEC in offensive efficiency, 11th in effective field goal percentage and last in three-point percentage. All reasons why the Gamecocks could have a chance to win.

Senior forward Tolu Smith leads the team with 15 points per game on 59.2 percent shooting. He’s been a double-double machine with nine so far this season. Junior guard Shakeel Moore is averaging a tick under 10 points per game (9.3) on 41 percent shooting.

Things get better on defense, though. Mississippi State ranks top-three in defensive efficiency, turnover and steal percentages. It won’t make life easy for South Carolina who could use a nice shooting game to get back on track.

Game details

Who: South Carolina (10-19, 3-13 SEC) at Mississippi State (19-10, 7-9 SEC)

When: Tuesday, Feb. 28 at 9 p.m.

Where: Humphrey Coliseum (Capacity: 10,575)

All-time series: Mississippi State leads 28-17 (Last matchup: Bulldogs won 66-51 in 2023)

How to watch/listen: SEC Network/107.5 FM

KenPom prediction: 69-53 Tennessee (Gamecocks given an 8 percent chance to win)

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