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Projections: Tennessee fighting for its hosting life as regular season draws to a close

On3 imageby:Eric Cain05/13/25

_Cainer

Tennessee baseball fans. Credit: Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
Tennessee baseball fans. Credit: Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The final week of the regular season is here and the Tennessee Volunteers are on the brink of a top-16 seed and the right to host an NCAA Regional in Knoxville this postseason.

Tony Vitello’s club has dropped four-straight weekend series and five of the past six. It’s lost four-straight rubber matches and are 2-5 on the season in such contests. The No. 17 Vols (39-13, 15-12 SEC) haven’t won back-to-back conference games since April 13 (Ole Miss) and April 18 (Kentucky).

So, a series-win at No. 8 Arkansas this weekend feels like a must if Tennessee hopes to host an NCAA Regional in Knoxville following the conclusion of the Southeastern Conference Tournament in two weeks.

On3’s Jonathan Wagner posted his latest Field of 64 Projections earlier this week with the Vols clinging on to a host seed. Tennessee comes in as the No. 15 overall seed in this week’s projections after falling to Vanderbilt in two games to one fashion last weekend at home.

“Tennessee is in serious danger of falling out of the hosting race, though they hold on in this week’s Field of 64,” the article states. “The Vols are 39-13 overall, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI with a 10-8 Q1 record, but have now lost four series in a row and five of their last six, and if they can’t take their final series against Arkansas, will a team that’s lost six of their last seven series get the nod? If they don’t Dallas Baptist is right on the cusp, and actually dropped out of the top 16 in this week’s projections.”

Dallas Baptist is the No. 2 seed in the Knoxville Regional under this projection with Kansas (3) and Tennessee Tech (4) also in the grouping. The winner of the Knoxville Regional would square off with the winner of the Auburn Regional in this scenario, a group consisting of Auburn (No. 2 overall seed), Miami (2), Michigan (3) and Oral Roberts (4).

The top-16 seeds in the field this week for Wagner are Texas (1), Auburn (2), Florida State (3), Vanderbilt (4), Georgia (5), LSU (6), Oregon State (7), Arkansas (8), UCLA (9), North Carolina (10), Alabama (11), Coastal Carolina (12), Oregon (13), Clemson (14), Tennessee (15) and UC Irvine (16).  

The host sites are comprised of eight SEC teams, followed by the ACC (3), Big Ten (2), Sun Belt (1), Big West (1) and Independent (1). Six of those eight SEC teams are top eight overall seeds. The SEC leads all conferences with 13 bids in this projection. The ACC is next with nine, followed by the Big 12 with seven. The Big Ten sports five, the Sun Belt has three, the Big Sky boasts two and Conference USA also has a pair who made the field this week in the projections.       

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