Updating ESPN's game-by-game predictions for Tennessee after the romp over NC State

Tennessee Football’s 51-10 win over North Carolina State Saturday night in Charlotte helped the Vols move up two spots to No. 5 in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index. Texas is the new No. 1 in the FPI, ahead of Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State.

The FPI now gives Tennessee a 65.3% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 13.9% chance to make the national championship game and a 6.8% chance to win the national title. 

ESPN’s updated numbers also give the Vols a greater than 50% chance to win eight of its remaining 10 games, with the only projected losses coming at home against Alabama and at Georgia. 

Here’s a look at ESPN’s updated game-by-game projections for Tennessee:

Kent State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 99.0%

September 14 | Home | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Kent State is ranked dead last in ESPN’s FPI, at No. 134. The Golden Flashes lost 55-24 at Pitt in Week 1 and lost to St. Francis (PA) on Saturday, an FCS program from the Northeast Conference.

No. 15 Oklahoma

Tennessee’s chance to win: 66.6%

September 21 | Away | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

The FPI gave Tennessee a 40.1% to win back in August and a 49.4% chance last week. After Tennessee’s 51-10 win over NC State, paired with Oklahoma 16-12 home win over Houston, the number climbed to 66.6% this week. Oklahoma plays Tulane at home on Saturday before hosting Tennessee, with the Sooners making their debut in the SEC against the Vols.

Arkansas

Tennessee’s chance to win: 77.2%

October 5 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Arkansas opened the season with a 70-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff in Little Rock before losing 39-31 at Oklahoma State in overtime on Saturday. Tennessee and Arkansas have played only 19 times dating back to 1907, with Tennessee winning 13 times.

Florida

Tennessee’s chance to win: 89.9%

October 12 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

ESPN in August gave Tennessee a 70.0% chance to beat Florida at home. That was before the 41-17 home loss Miami to open the season. Florida beat Samford 45-7 on Saturday.

No. 4 Alabama

Tennessee’s chance to win: 43.8%

October 19 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Alabama beat Western Kentucky 63-0 to open the season, then beat South Florida 34-16 in Week 2. The Crimson Tide, ranked No. 3 in the Football Power Index, go to Wisconsin this week.

Kentucky

Tennessee’s chance to win: 92.2%

November 2 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Kentucky beat Southern Miss 31-0 at home to open the season, but got throttled by South Carolina in a 31-7 home loss on Saturday. Tennessee, which had an 82.5% chance to beat Kentucky last week, has won ten of its last 12 games against Kentucky.

Mississippi State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 88.5%

November 9 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Mississippi State started the Jeff Lebby era with a 56-7 win over Eastern Kentucky, but lost 30-23 at Arizona State last week. Tennessee has won 10 of its last 12 against Mississippi State, including a 20-10 win at Neyland Stadium in 2019.

No. 1 Georgia

Tennessee’s chance to win: 30.8%

November 16 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Georgia beat Clemson 34-3 to open the season in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta and beat Tennessee Tech 48-3 in its home opener on Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven straight against Tennessee.

UTEP

Tennessee’s chance to win: 99.0%

November 23 | Home | 1 p.m. ET | SECN+/ESPN+

UTEP lost 40-7 at Nebraska to open the season then lost 27-24 to FCS Southern Utah at home on Saturday. The Miners are ranked No. 131 in ESPN’s updated FPI, dropping 13 spots from last week. Tennessee is 3-0 against UTEP.

Vanderbilt

Tennessee’s chance to win: 86.2%

November 30 | Away | 12-1 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Vanderbilt is off to a 2-0 start after beating Alcorn State 55-0 on Saturday and beating Virginia Tech 34-27 at home in Week 1. Vandy is up to No. 54 in the FPI, one spot ahead of Kentucky.