Where Tennessee Basketball stands with five games left in the regular season

No. 6 Tennessee is down to just five regular-season games left on the schedule, which next moves to No. 7 Texas A&M for Saturday afternoon’s Noon Eastern Time game on ESPN at Reed Arena in College Station. 

The Vols enter the final two weeks of the season projected to be a No. 2 seed, and the No. 5 overall seed, in the latest ESPN Bracketology update. 

A No. 1 seed is still within reach, when Tennessee going to A&M, with the Aggies projected to also be a No. 2 seed, and hosting Alabama, a projected No. 1 seed, on March 1. The Vols also go to LSU (February 25) and Ole Miss (March 5) before Senior Day at Food City Center on March 8 against South Carolina. 

Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC) is currently No. 5 in both the NET (8-5 in Quad 1 games) and No. 5 in the KenPom.com ratings (No. 1 on defense, No. 30 on offense). 

KenPom gives the Vols a 51% chance to win at Texas A&M (64-63), an 82% chance to win at LSU (71-61), a 69% chance to beat Alabama (79-73), a 59% chance to win at Ole Miss (68-65) and a 93% chance to beat South Carolina (71-54). 

Tennessee will likely need to win at least four of its next five to have a chance at finishing in the top four of the SEC standings and stay in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

The Vols are currently sixth in the league, 3.5 games behind first-place Auburn (11-1), 2.5 games back of second-place Alabama (10-2), 1.5 games back of Florida (9-3) and Texas A&M (9-3) and a half game back of Missouri (8-4).

Here’s a look at how Tennessee’s previous six NCAA Tournament teams fared to close the regular-season schedule and through the postseason:

2024: Last season the Vols went 4-1 over their last five games of the regular season, losing to Kentucky on Senior Day at Food City Center after winning seven straight. They clinched the SEC regular-season title with a 66-59 win at South Carolina three days earlier, giving them 19 wins over their previous 22 games. 

Mississippi State beat Tennessee 73-56 in the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament, giving the Vols back-to-back losses for the first time since November, but it didn’t slow them down in the NCAA Tournament. 

Tennessee beat No. 15 Saint Peter’s in the first round, No. 7 Texas in the second round and No. 3 Creighton in the Sweet 16, advancing to the Elite Eight for just the second time. No. 1 Purdue stood in the way, though, ending the Vols’ season one win short of a Final Four bid, 72-66.

2023: Tennessee went 2-3 over its final five games of the 2022-23 regular season, losing Zakai Zeigler to a torn ACL in the home finale against Arkansas. The Vols dropped back-to-back games at Kentucky and Texas A&M, then lost at Auburn after losing Zeigler to the knee injury. 

They exited in the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament, beating Ole Miss before losing to Missouri, then punched a ticket to the Sweet 16 as a No. 4 seed after wins over No. 13 Louisiana and No. 5 Duke. Final Four-bound Florida Atlantic upset Tennessee in the third round, 62-55, at Madison Square Garden. 

2022: The 2021-22 team rolled into the postseason, going 4-1 over its final five games of the regular season — Tennessee lost 58-48 at Arkansas — having won nine of its last 10. The Vols went through Mississippi State, Kentucky and Texas A&M on the way to the program’s first SEC Tournament championship since 1979. 

The momentum didn’t carryover to the NCAA Tournament. After blitzing Longwood in the first round, 88-56, Tennessee lost 76-68 to No. 11-seed Michigan in the second round. 

2021: The COVID-altered 2020-21 season ended with a 3-2 record over the final five games of the regular season, alternating between wins and losses with a home win over South Carolina, a home loss to Kentucky, a road win at Vanderbilt, a road loss at Auburn and a home win over Florida.

Tennessee was two-and-done in the SEC Tournament, beating Florida in the quarterfinals before losing to Alabama in the semifinal round. The Vols were one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament in the COVID Bubble in Indianapolis, losing to No. 12 Oregon State as a No. 5 seed. The team finished 8-8 over its final 16 games of the 27-game season. 

2019: The 31-win team in 2018-19 went 3-2 over its final five games of the regular season, beating Ole Miss, Kentucky and Mississippi State and losing at LSU and at Auburn. The Vols, who started the season 23-1 before closing with a 4-3 record over its last seven in the regular season, went to the SEC Tournament championship game, where they lost to Auburn.

After wins over Colgate and Iowa to advance to the Sweet 16, No. 2-seed Tennessee lost to Purdue in overtime, 99-94.

2018: Tennessee went 4-1 over its last five games, starting with a loss at Georgia followed by a home win over Florida, road wins at Ole Miss and Mississippi State and a home win over Georgia to clinch a share of the SEC regular-season championship. 

The Vols went to the SEC Tournament championship game, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas, before losing to Kentucky in the title game. After a win over Wright State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, No. 11-seed Loyola Chicago upset No. 3 Tennessee in the second round in Dallas.