Bracketology: Where Tennessee and North Carolina stand in battle for final No. 1 seed

Tennessee enters championship week with the edge on North Carolina for the fourth and final No. 1 seed, according to NCAA Tournament bracket projections from both ESPN and CBS Sports. 

Both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm have the Vols (24-7) as the No. 1 seed in the West Region, with Arizona as the No. 2 seed. But it’s North Carolina (25-6) that Tennessee is battling for the final spot on the top line, according to Lunardi.

“Arizona has fallen to No. 6 overall (seed),” Lunardi wrote on Sunday, after Arizona’s loss at USC Saturday night, “opening the door for Tennessee and North Carolina to fight it out this week for the final No. 1 seed.”

Tennessee, which opens SEC Tournament play as the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinal round Friday (1 p.m. Eastern Time, ESPN) against either LSU or Mississippi State, is currently No. 5 in the NET with a 7-6 Quad 1 record and 6-1 Quad 2 record. 

North Carolina (25-6) is the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, starting play Thursday against Florida State. The Tar Heels are No. 7 in the NET with an 8-3 Quad 1 record and 6-3 Quad 2 record. 

Joe Lunardi: ‘UNC stays in the hunt for a 1-seed with a win’ over Florida State

Both teams have chances to improve their resumes in the coming days.

A win over Florida State would be Quad 2 for UNC. Should the Tar Heels win Thursday, they would have a Quad 1 game on Friday against either Wake Forest (No. 36 NET) or Pitt (No. 45).

“UNC stays in the hunt for a 1-seed with a win (over Florida State),” Lunardi wrote on Thursday. 

Mississippi State would be a Quad 1 game for Tennessee on Friday and LSU would be a Quad 2 opponent.

The question remains how much conference tournament results, at least through Saturday night, could change seeding on Selection Sunday. Based on past experiences, the Vols could build on their resume only through the semifinal round of the SEC Tournament.

Tennessee won the conference tournament in 2022, but failed to move up to a No. 2 seed after being projected as a No. 3 seed at the start of championship week. Lunardi said at the time that winning a conference tournament on Sunday aren’t a factor for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. 

“These Sunday games, year after year after year, don’t matter,” Lunardi said.  

The ACC Tournament championship game is played Saturday night, while the SEC Tournament’s title game starts at 1 p.m. ET Sunday, five hours before the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed.

Tennessee has never been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament

NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Chair Charles McClelland, in an interview with Andy Katz on Tuesday, said every conference tournament game matters.

“We’re looking for the same that we’re looking for during the regular season — consistency, what those teams bring to the table,” McClelland Said. “And it’s an opportunity for (teams) to enhance their resume to be able to get into this tournament. Every conference tournament is important to us, as if it’s a regular-season game or tournament game. They’re all the same to us. We’re watching intently.”

“Again,” McClelland added later, “each game stands on its own merit. So if it’s a Quad 1 opportunity or Quad 2 opportunity, it’s the same in the tournament as it is in the regular season. It’s an opportunity for teams to enhance their resumes. So these games are important and we’ll be watching.”

Tennessee has never been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have been a No. 2 seed three times (2006, 2008 and 2019) and a No. 3 seed twice (2018, 2022).

Lunardi’s bracket on Friday morning had Tennessee as the No. 1 seed in the West awaiting either No. 16 Stetson or No. 16 Wagner out of the First Four. No. 8-seed Dayton and No. 9 TCU were opposite of the Vols in Charlotte for the first weekend. 

The other top seeds in the West in Lunardi’s projection were No. 2 Arizona, No. 3 Baylor, No. 4 Illinois, No. 5 BYU, No. 6 Saint Mary’s and No. 7 Utah State.

Palm in his updated CBS Sports bracket has Tennessee as the No. 1 seed in the West and also awaiting a No. 16-seed opponent out of the First Four. Palm also had the Vols in Charlotte, opposite of No. 8 Florida Atlantic and No. 9 TCU.

Comparing Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament resume vs. North Carolina

North Carolina’s eight Quad 1 wins have come against Tennessee (No. 5), Duke (No. 10; twice), Clemson (No. 26), Oklahoma (No. 42), Pittsburgh (No. 44) and Virginia (No. 51) and North Carolina State (No. 73). The Quad 1 losses for the Tar Heels were against No. 3 UConn, No. 19 Kentucky and No. 33 Villanova.

North Carolina is 6-2 in Quad 2, with losses to No. 80 Syracuse and No. 126 Georgia Tech. UNC is a combined 12-0 in Quad 3 (7-0) and Quad 4 (5-0).

Tennessee’s seven Quad 1 wins came against Auburn (No. 6), Alabama (No. 8; twice), Illinois (No. 15), at Wisconsin (No. 22), Kentucky (No. 19) and at South Carolina (No. 49). The Quad 1 losses are against Purdue (No. 2), at North Carolina (No. 7), Kanas (No. 18), at Mississippi State (No. 42) and at Texas A&M (No. 46). 

The Vols are 6-1 in Quad 2, with a home loss to South Carolina (No. 49) and a combined 11-0 in Quad 3 (6-0) and Quad 4 (5-0).