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Joe Lunardi: Tennessee, No. 2 seeds could have been a No. 1 seed 'in other seasons'

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey•about 22 hours•

GrantRamey

Tennessee Basketball | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images) Feb 22, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Chaz Lanier (2), guard Jordan Gainey (11) and forward Felix Okpara (34) stand on the court during a time-out in the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena.

Tennessee Basketball’s resume this season was strong enough to be a No. 1 seed in year’s past, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. In fact, any of the No. 2 seeds in this year’s NCAA Tournament could have been a No. 1 — if it wasn’t for this group of No. 1s.

The Vols were the No. 5 overall seed on Sunday night when the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, putting them at the top of the No. 2-seed line.

Behind them was Alabama, Michigan State and St. John’s respectively. Auburn was the No. 1 overall seed, ahead of Duke, Houston and Florida.

“The top eight teams,” Lunardi wrote Sunday night, “are as strong as any group of 1- and 2-seeds I can remember. Collectively, this top eight has won 148 Q1/Q2 games. 

“All could have been standalone 1-seeds in other seasons.”

No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Wofford, Thursday, First Round

Tennessee (27-7) is the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region and will play No. 15 Wofford (19-15) on Thursday (6:50 p.m. Eastern Time, TNT) at Rupp Arena in Lexington. The Vols and Terriers are opposite of No. 7 UCLA and No. 10 Utah State. 

Houston is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest. The Vols would have to advance to the Elite Eight in Indianapolis in two weeks to get their shot at the Cougars. 

Tennessee is ranked No. 5 in the KenPom.com ratings, with an adjusted efficiency margin of +31.15. All four No. 1 seeds have an adjusted efficiency margin of +35.05 or higher. 

The efficiency numbers for all four No. 1 seeds make it the best group of No. 1 seeds in tournament history, according to Will Warren.

”At an average AdjEM of +36.12,” Warren wrote on Sunday, “this is the strongest batch of 1 seeds in history, demolishing the previous record of +32.7 in 2014-15.”

Warren also noted this is the first season since 2019, and only the second time ever, that all four No. 1 seeds have a 35% or higher chance to make the Final Four. 

Duke is No. 1 in KenPom AdjEM at +38.16, ahead of Florida at +36.16, Houston at +35.44 and Auburn at +35.05.

Vols played two NCAA Tournament No. 1 seeds in SEC Tournament

Tennessee beat Auburn 70-65 Saturday in the SEC Tournament semifinals at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. The Vols lost 86-77 to Florida Sunday in the championship game. 

Alabama’s adjusted efficiency margin is +29.93, ahead of Michigan State’s +27.57 and St. John’s at 26.38.

“At +28.82 AdjEM,” Warren wrote, “this is the second-strongest batch of 2 seeds ever, only behind 2015.”

Warren wrote that Tennessee, at 26.3%, has the highest odds of the No. 2 seeds to reach the Final Four. 

Tennessee has the second-best odds to win the Midwest Region at 13/4 (+325), according to BetOnline. Houston is No. 1 at 5/4 (+125) and No. 8-seed Gonzaga is third at 9/1, ahead of No. 3-seed Kentucky at 19/2 (+950).

Duke is 4/5 (-125) to win the East Region, Auburn is 4/5 to win the South Region and Florida is 10/13 (-130) to win the West Region. Alabama in the East and Michigan State in the South are tied for the second-best odds among No. 2 seeds, both at 9/2 (+450).

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