Joe Lunardi: Tennessee 'firmly made its case for a No. 1 seed' in 103-92 win at Kentucky

No. 5 Tennessee’s 103-92 dismantling of No. 10 Kentucky Saturday night at Rupp Arena helped the Vols “firmly” make a case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.

Lunardi on Saturday night had Tennessee back up to the No. 5 overall seed in his latest bracket projection, with the Vols as the top team on the No. 2-seed line. Tennessee had dropped to the No. 6 overall seed after the 63-59 home loss to South Carolina on Tuesday.

“Tennessee firmly made its case for a No. 1 seed by racing past Kentucky at Rupp Arena,” Lunardi wrote. “The Vols’ wire-to-wire victory certainly passed any possible ‘eye test,’ giving us five teams with legitimate to-line profiles.”

The problem for Tennessee (16-5, 6-2 SEC) is the teams currently projected as No. 1 seeds. Lunardi’s fourth and final No. 1 seed is North Carolina, which beat the Vols 100-92 in the ACC-SEC Challenge game at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill on November 29.

Houston, North Carolina still ahead of Tennessee’s pursuit of a No. 1 seed

The Tar Heels aren’t going anywhere after their home win over rival Duke Saturday night.

“North Carolina strongly affirmed its No. 1 seed status,” Lunardi wrote.

Neither is Houston, Lunardi’s third No. 1 seed behind Purdue and UConn. The Cougars lost 78-65 at No. 8 Kansas on Saturday afternoon, but it didn’t put much of a dent in their resume.

“Even in defeat,” Lunardi wrote, “Houston remains a solid No. 1 seed on our board. A single loss at Phog Allen Field House isn’t going to cause much of a budge in the Cougars’ power numbers.”

Tennessee actually dropped one spot in the NET rankings — the metric the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to help seed the 68-team tournament field in March — going from No. 5 to No. 6 after Saturday’s games.

Houston is No. 1, ahead of Purdue, Arizona, UConn and Alabama. The Crimson Tide jumped the Vols, going from No. 7 to No. 5, despite Tennessee beating Alabama 91-71 in Knoxville two weeks ago. North Carolina is No. 9 in the NET.

Up Next: No. 5 Tennessee vs. LSU, Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET, SEC Network

The Vols are also No. 6 in the KenPom.com ratings. They’re ranked a season-best No. 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 118.8 points per 100 possessions, and are ranked No. 9 in adjusted defensive efficiency, giving up 92.0 points per 100 possessions. 

The win at Kentucky was Tennessee’s fourth Quad 1 win this season and made the Vols 4-4 in eight Quad 1 games. They’re 5-1 in Quad 2 games and a combined 7-0 in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. 

Houston has a 6-3 record in Quad 1 games while North Carolina is 5-2 in Quad 1.

“The knee-jerk reaction after Saturday,” Lunardi wrote, “would be to drop Houston and move Tennessee up, but that would be the wrong impulse and unlikely what the committee would do in similar circumstances. The Cougars still have the metrics and wins to sit behind only Purdue and UConn, leaving UNC and UT for the final spot. 

“The Tar Heels’ slight edge is reinforced by a pre-conference win over the Vols. Kentucky, meanwhile, lost a chance to regain a top four seed while losing for the third time in four starts.”

Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament history under Rick Barnes

Tennessee has never been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have also never been lower than a No. 5 seed during the Rick Barnes era. 

They were a No. 4 seed a year ago, beating No. 13 Louisiana and No. 5 Duke to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, before losing to No. 8-seed and Final Four-bound Florida Atlantic. They were a No. 3 seed two years ago, losing to No. 11-seed Michigan in the second round.

Tennessee was a No. 2 seed in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, with its 31-win season coming to an end against No. 3-seed Purdue in overtime in he Sweet Sixteen.

The Vols were a No. 3 seed in 2018, when they were upset by 11th-seeded and Final Four-bound Cinderella Loyola-Chicago. They were a No. 5 in the 2020 COVID bubble tournament, losing in the first round to No. 12-seed and Elite Eight-bound Oregon State.