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Lunardi: Tennessee, North Carolina locked in 'as close of a race as we've ever seen' for No. 1 seed

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey03/15/24

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Jordan Gainey
(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports) Nov 29, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Jordan Gainey (2) dribbles as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center.

Tennessee and North Carolina are locked in “as close of a race as we’ve ever seen” for and final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. The Vols started Thursday as Lunardi’s fourth No. 1 seed in his bracket projection, only to be jumped by North Carolina later Thursday night.

UNC (25-6) beat Florida State 92-67 to pick up a Quad 2 win in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal round on Thursday afternoon, leading Lunardi to bump the Tar Heels up to his No. 4 overall seed and moving Tennessee down to No. 5.

The Vols (24-7) face Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday at Bridgestone Arena in a Quad 1 game. UNC has a Quad 1 game Friday against Pitt in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

“They’re in as close of a race as we’ve ever seen for the last No. 1 seed,” Lunardi said Thursday night. “I think what we’re seeing tonight — Carolina inching ahead. A little game of checkers between the two over the next two or three days because Carolina is a day ahead in their conference tournament schedule.”

Lunardi on Friday wrote that Tennessee has to beat Mississippi State Friday to stay in the No. 1-seed hunt.

Up Next: No. 5 Tennessee vs. Mississippi State, Friday, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN

The ACC Tournament’s championship game is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time Saturday, while the SEC Tournament plays its title game at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, five hours before the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday.

Tennessee has never been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have been a No. 2 seed three times (2006, 2008 and 2019) and a No. 3 seed twice (2018, 2022).

Entering the day on Friday, Tennessee was ranked No. 5 in the NET with a 7-6 Quad 1 record, one Quad 2 loss and a combined 11-0 record in Quad 3 and Quad 4.

North Carolina was ranked No. 7 in the NET with an 8-3 Quad 1 record, but also has three Quad 2 losses.

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“Tennessee can hold serve tomorrow,” Lunardi said on Thursday, “maybe move back ahead in the afternoon, and then lose ground later. Eventually, the tournaments will end. Hopefully, the committee will keep working until the very end if they win out and break the tie.”

Vols have chances for ‘higher quality’ wins in SEC Tournament

It was Lunardi in 2022 who said conference championship games played on Selection Sunday do not matter. Tennessee won the 2022 SEC Tournament championship but stayed as a No. 3 seed, where the Vols were previously projected.

“These Sunday games, year after year after year, don’t matter,” Lunardi said.  

This time around, if Tennessee made a run to the another SEC Tournament title, Lunardi said it could be the difference in being the last No. 1 seed or the highest No. 2 seed.

Should the Vols advance to Saturday’s semifinal round, they would likely have another Quad 1 opportunity against either No. 4-seed Auburn or No. 5-seed South Carolina.

“I think it would go in Tennessee’s favor,” Lunardi said. “Because their wins, presumably to get an SEC title, would be of higher quality than North Carolina’s. Particularly with Duke now out of the picture which would be the best win that Carolina could get.

“Tennessee could get a couple of that level. And then we’re assuming the committee takes into consideration a Sunday afternoon game. And frankly, there have been times where they have not.”

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