Ranking Tennessee Basketball's final five games on the regular-season schedule

No. 6 Tennessee is down to five games left on the regular-season schedule, going to No. 7 Texas A&M on Saturday after having a midweek bye this week. The Vols (21-5, 8-5 SEC) and Aggies (20-6, 9-4) are scheduled for a Noon Eastern Time start (TV: ESPN) at Reed Arena in College Station.

The road trip is one of the toughest games left for the Vols, who go to LSU and host No. 4 Alabama next week, go to No. 24 Ole Miss in early March and host South Carolina on Senior Day on March 8.

Here’s how Volquest ranks Tennessee’s remaining schedule, from easiest to hardest:

(1) At No. 7 Texas A&M | Saturday | Reed Arena | Quad 1

KenPom Projection: Tennessee 64, Texas A&M 62 (54% chance to win)

No. 7 Texas A&M is coming off a 70-54 loss at No. 21 Mississippi State Tuesday night, but that won’t make Saturday’s game any easier. Tennessee has struggled at Reed Arena, losing its last two games there, 85-69 last season and 68-63 in 2023. The Vols haven’t won in front of a full capacity in College Station since the No. 1-ranked Vols won 93-76 in 2019 (Tennessee won 68-54 at A&M during the COVID season in 2020-21). 

It will be a battle of two of the best defenses in college basketball. This A&M team is No. 5 in KenPom.com‘s adjusted defensive efficiency, giving up just 91.6 points per 100 possessions. Tennessee is No. 1 at 87.3. Both teams are currently projected to be No. 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament according to ESPN Bracketology from Joe Lunardi.

(2) No. 4 Alabama | March 1 | Food City Center | Quad 1

KenPom Projection: Tennessee 80, Alabama 74 (71% chance to win)

Alabama has dropped back-to-back games, losing 94-85 at home against No. 1 Auburn Saturday and 110-98 at No. 15 Missouri Tuesday night. The schedule doesn’t get any easier moving forward. The Crimson Tide has home games with No. 17 Kentucky and No. 21 Mississippi State, the road game at No. 6 Tennessee, then closes with home games against No. 2 Florida and No. 1 Auburn. 

If Tennessee is going to stay in the hunt for a No. 1 seed, a home win over Alabama — currently projected as a No. 1 seed — is something the Vols need to add to their resume.

(3) At No. 24 Ole Miss | March 5 | The Pavilion at Ole Miss | Quad 1

KenPom Projection: Tennessee 68, Ole Miss 65 (59% chance to win)

Tennessee has won nine of its last 10 games against Ole Miss — the only loss was in Oxford, 52-50 in February 2021 — and won 63-59 in its last trip to The Pavilion at Ole Miss, in December 2022. 

Ole Miss lost 81-71 at home against Mississippi State on Saturday, ending a run of four wins over its previous five games. The Rebels lost three straight — at Mississippi State, home vs. Texas and at Missouri — in late January, after a 15-2 start to the season that included a 74-64 win at Alabama. Ole Miss is ranked No. 16 in KenPom defense, No. 35 on offense and currently projected by ESPN to be a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

(4) LSU | Tuesday | Pete Maravich Assembly Center | Quad 2

KenPom Projection: Tennessee 71, LSU 61 (81% chance to win)

Tennessee won 77-56 at LSU in January 2023, snapping a streak of four straight losses in Baton Rouge over the first seven seasons of the Rick Barnes era. This season has been a struggle for third-year LSU coach Matt McMahon, who won 14 games in Year 1 and 17 games last season. 

The Tigers lost 10 of their first 11 SEC games this season, before bouncing back with an 82-79 win at Oklahoma on Saturday and an 81-67 home win over South Carolina Tuesday night. LSU is No. 77 overall in the KenPom ratings, ranked No. 58 on defense and No. 105 on offense.

(5) South Carolina | March 8 | Food City Center | Quad 3

KenPom Projection: Tennessee 71, South Carolina 54 (94% chance to win)

After going 13-5 in SEC play last season, finishing in a four-way tie for second place in the league standings, South Carolina is 0-13 in the SEC this season. The Gamecocks lost 66-63 at home against Auburn on January 11, 70-69 against Florida on January 22, 65-60 in overtime against Mississippi State on January 25, 76-72 against Texas A&M on February 1 and 72-68 against Ole Miss last week. 

South Carolina, Tennessee’s Senior Day opponent in the regular-season finale, is No. 84 overall in the KenPom ratings, ranked No .54 on defense and No. 120 on offense.