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Bowl Projections: ESPN drops Tennessee from College Football Playoff predictions

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey10/13/24

GrantRamey

Tennessee Football | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
(Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images) Tennessee defensive back Andre Turrentine (2) and defensive back Jermod McCoy (3) tackle Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (1) during a SEC conference game between Tennessee and Florida in Neyland Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024.

Tennessee Football is on the outside looking in on ESPN’s College Football Playoff projection after the Vols struggled to score for a second straight week, having to go to overtime to beat rival Florida 23-17 Saturday night. 

ESPN’s Heather Dinich dropped Tennessee out of her current top 12 for the playoff while both ESPN writers Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura had the Vols headed for a bowl game instead of the 12-team CFP bracket.

Schlabach had Tennessee in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa facing Indiana while Bonagura had the Vols in the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville against Louisville.

Up Next: No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Alabama

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) hosts No. 7 Alabama (5-1, 2-1) on Saturday afternoon (3:30 Eastern Time, ABC) with its playoff hopes at least partially on the line. 

For the Vols to be a playoff team, they would likely need to finish at least 10-2 and split games with Alabama and Georgia. Tennessee goes to Athens to face Georgia on November 16. 

Tennessee is ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index and No. 9 in ESPN’s SP+. The Vols have a 46% chance to make the playoff — the 12th-highest chance — according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor

The updated top-12 ranking from Dinich on Sunday was Texas at No. 1, ahead of No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Miami, No. 8 Clemson, No. 9 BYU, No. 10 Boise State, No. 11 LSU and No. 12 Iowa State. 

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Vols shut out in first half of last two games

Tennessee on Saturday night was shut out in the first half for a second straight week, trailing Florida 3-0 at halftime. It was a 10-0 Gator lead midway through the third quarter, before the Vols reeled off 17 straight points to take the lead.

Florida scored on a 27-yard touchdown pass on third-and-18 with 26 seconds left to tie the game. The Gators missed a 47-yard field goal to start overtime and Tennessee scored on a five-play touchdown drive to win the game. 

The Vols trailed 3-0 at halftime at Arkansas last week, too, then scored 14 straight points to start the second half. The Razorbacks scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:11 left and held on to win 19-14.

Last week Schlabach still had Tennessee as a playoff team after the Arkansas loss, seeded 10th in the 12-team field. Bonagura moved the Vols out of his bracket.

Schlabach had Tennessee going to No. 7 Penn State in the first round, with Penn State advancing to face No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinal round. Bonagura, meanwhile, has the Vols facing Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa on December 31. 

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