ESPN Playoff Predictor: Tennessee has 98% chance to make playoff, 40% to host first round
Tennessee is one of eight teams that are virtually a lock for the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. The Vols have a 98% chance to make the 12-team field, the seventh best odds among the eight teams, along with a 40% chance to host in the first round and a 58% chance to go on the road.
Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas and Penn State all have greater than a 99% chance to make the playoff. Georgia and Indiana both have a 99% chance, just ahead of Tennessee at 98%. Ohio State is next at 96%.
After that, it drops to 69% for SMU and 68% for Boise State. Iowa State is at 55%, Arizona State is at 43% and Clemson is at 42%. Alabama has a 30% chance, Miami has a 24% chance and South Carolina has a 21% chance. Ole Miss is down to a 3% chance.
ESPN projects Tennessee to be CFP No. 9 seed, playing at No. 8 Ohio State
Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 SEC) beat Vanderbilt 36-23 Saturday afternoon at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. The Vols moved up to No. 6 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and the Coaches Poll on Sunday afternoon.
Ohio State dropped to No. 7 in the AP Top 25 and No. 8 in the Coaches Poll after its 13-10 loss to unranked Michigan at home Saturday afternoon.
ESPN’s College Football Playoff Top 25 projection on Saturday night had Tennessee ranked No. 7 but seeded ninth in the bracket, going to No. 8-seed Ohio State. Heather Dinich ranked Ohio State No. 6 in ESPN’s projected playoff rankings, one spot ahead of Tennessee.
“The Buckeyes suffered a bad home loss to five-loss, unranked, rival Michigan,” Dinich wrote, “but it’s not going to knock them out of the playoff. Ohio State’s safety net is two top-10 wins against Penn State and Indiana, the latter of which Ohio State is unlikely to fall behind. The Buckeyes should also stay ahead of Tennessee, which has one statement win, against Alabama.
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“The bigger question is if Ohio State squandered its chance at a first-round home game. If the Buckeyes are ranked No. 7 or higher, they should still host a first-round game because they would be seeded in the necessary 5 through 8 spots. In this projection, Ohio State would be the No. 8 seed and the final team awarded a first-round home game.”
‘All (Tennessee) can do is wait and watch the SEC title game to see how Georgia fares’
Tennessee lost 19-14 at Arkansas in October, won four straight games against Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State, then lost 31-17 at Georgia two weeks ago.
The Vols were ranked eighth in the College Football Playoff Top 25 and seeded ninth in the selection committee’s updated bracket last week, after being ranked 11th and the first team out of the 12-team field the week before, coming off the Georgia loss.
“Tennessee should be in the CFP,” Dinich wrote, “it’s just a matter of where and if it will earn a first-round home game as one of the teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8. All it can do is wait and watch the SEC title game to see how Georgia fares and how it might impact Tennessee’s final ranking.”
