ESPN lists Tennessee as one of 30 teams that can reach the 12-team College Football Playoff

Tennessee Football is one of 30 teams that can reach the new 12-team College Football Playoff this season, according to ESPN. Senior writer Heather Dinich on Thursday listed the Vols ninth, coming in behind Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Alabama and Missouri.

“Tennessee should be better than it was last year on both offense and defense,” Dinich wrote, “but it still might be a three-loss team on the bubble because the schedule is so challenging.” 

ESPN’s Football Power Index, which also has the Vols ranked ninth, gives them a 36.9% chance to make the playoff and a 2.7% chance to win the national championship.

“There are high expectations for quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be surrounded by talent and an offensive line that returns three starters,” Dinich wrote. “The defensive line should be the strength on that side, but the secondary struggled last year and will be rebuilt this season. 

“Can the Vols win at OU, at home against Bama and at Georgia? ESPN’s FPI says they’re 0-3 against that lineup.”

Season Opener: Tennessee vs. Chattanooga, Aug. 31, 12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Tennessee opens the season against Chattanooga on August 31 (12:45 p.m. Eastern Time, TV: SEC Network) and faces North Carolina State on September 7 in Charlotte (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), 

After hosting Kent State on September 14, the Vols open SEC play with road games at Oklahoma (September 21) and at Arkansas (October 5). 

The Sooners were the 10th team listed of the 30 from ESPN on Thursday and North Carolina State was No. 25.

Tennessee hosts Florida and Alabama back-to-back on October 12 and October 19, respectively, then has home games against Kentucky (November 2) and Mississippi State (November 9) before going to Georgia on November 16.

“By this point in the season,” Dinich wrote of Tennessees’s game at Georgia, “Iamaleava won’t be a rookie anymore, but will the Vols’ pass defense be ready for Carson Beck? Last season Beck threw for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-10 win.

‘If the Vols are going to impress the panel, they’re going to have to do it on the road’

ESPN listed road/neutral-site wins as what the College Football Playoff committee will like about Tennessee’s resume in December.

“If the Vols are going to impress the panel, they’re going to have to do it on the road, where they will face some of their toughest competition,” Dinich wrote. “Tennessee could earn a nonconference win against a ranked ACC opponent Sept. 7 if it can beat NC State in the Duke’s Mayo Classic in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“If it doesn’t win that game, though, two of its best chances to compensate for it are Sept. 21 at Oklahoma and Nov. 16 at Georgia.”

What the committee won’t like, she continued, would be another “inexplicable loss,” like the one at South Carolina in November 2022 that spoiled any chance Tennessee had at making the four-team playoff or the one at Florida last September.

“The problem in each of those two seasons was that those upsets compounded other, more respectable losses,” Dinich wrote. “The selection committee will still consider Tennessee this year if it has one or two losses to ranked opponents — especially on the road — but bad defeats have historically been difficult for teams to overcome.

“If the Vols are going to reach even an expanded field, they’ve got to win the games they’re supposed to.”