Plotting Tennessee's College Football Playoff chances using ESPN's Playoff Predictor

No. 11 Tennessee enters a pivotal Third Saturday in October matchup with No. 7 Alabama on Saturday with a 46% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. That puts the Vols 12th in line for the 12-team playoff bracket. 

Texas is nearly a lock at 96%. Oregon is next at 84%, followed by Ohio State (81%), Penn State (75%), Miami (73%), Alabama (69%), Georgia (68%), Notre Dame (57%), Iowa State (53%), Indiana (47%) and Boise State (47%).

The Playoff Predictor, using 200,000 simulations, plots each team’s path to the playoff (or out of the playoff) based on the three biggest games remaining on schedule, based on ESPN’s Football Power Index. 

For Tennessee, two are obvious with the home game against Alabama Saturday and the road game at Georgia on November 16. The Crimson Tide is ranked No. 3 in the FPI and Georgia is No. 4, with the Vols coming in at No. 7. 

The third biggest game is Vanderbilt, after the Commodores upset Alabama at home two weeks ago, then won at Kentucky last week. The Commodores are up to No. 35 in this week’s FPI.

Here are the scenarios and percentages for Tennessee based on the possible outcomes against Alabama, Georgia and Vanderbilt (assuming wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State and UTEP):

Tennessee beats Alabama, loses at Georgia and wins at Vanderbilt 

Tennessee splits with Alabama and Georgia, starting with a win over the Crimson Tide on Saturday, then a loss at Georgia in a month, followed by a win in the regular-season finale at Vanderbilt.

In this scenario, assuming Tennessee misses the SEC Championship Game, the Playoff Predictor gives the Vols a 93% chance to make the playoff, a 51% chance to host a first-round game at Neyland Stadium and a 43% chance to go on the road in the first round.

This specific simulation had Tennessee as the No. 11 seed, with a 40% chance to win on the road at No. 6 Notre Dame. 

Should Tennessee make it to Atlanta and lose in the SEC title game, the Vols would have a 76% chance to make the playoffs, a 22% chance to host in the first round and a 54% chance of traveling. 

Tennessee loses to Alabama, wins at Georgia and wins at Vanderbilt

Tennessee loses Saturday against Alabama, beats Georgia at Sanford Stadium in Athens and wins at Vanderbilt. 

Here Tennessee has a 94% chance to make the playoff, a 51% chance to host in the first round and a 43% chance to go on the road. This simulation had No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Penn State. 

Should Tennessee lose in the SEC title game, the playoff chances would be 73% with a 24% chance to host in the first round and a 49% chance to go on the road. 

Tennessee wins out, beating Alabama at home and Georgia and Vanderbilt on the road

Tennessee is going to the playoff if the Vols win out and finish 11-1. There would be a 99% chance at making the playoff, a 95% chance to host in the first round and a 5% chance to go on the road in the first round. 

All those numbers factor in a loss in the SEC Championship Game. If the Vols won the SEC title, they would be in the playoff with a top-four seed and a bye in the first round. 

This simulation, with the loss in the SEC title game, had Tennessee as a No. 6 seed hosting No. 11 James Madison in the first round and advancing to face No. 3 Boise State in the quarterfinals.

Tennessee beats Alabama, wins at Georgia and loses at Vanderbilt

Tennessee wins its two biggest remaining games, against Alabama and Georgia, but loses at Vanderbilt on November 30.

In this scenario, Tennessee has a 78% chance to make the playoff, a 26% chance to host in the first round and a 51% chance to go on the road.

The Vols in this simulation were a No. 10 seed, going to No. 7 Indiana in the first round. 

Tennessee splits with Alabama and Georgia and loses at Vanderbilt 

Splitting with Alabama and Georgia, followed by a loss at Vanderbilt, would all but eliminate Tennessee’s playoff chances.

The Vols have a 10% chance to make the playoff by beating Alabama, losing at Georgia and losing at Vanderbilt. They have a 9% chance with a loss against Alabama, a win at Georgia and a loss at Vanderbilt. 

Tennessee would have just a 9% chance to be a playoff team, less than 1% chance to host and an 8% chance to go on the road in the first round. Both scenarios come with a 9% chance to go on the road in the first round and a less than 1% chance to host in the first round.

Tennessee loses to Alabama, loses at Georgia and wins at Vanderbilt 

The Vols go 0-2 in their two biggest games of the season, but wins at Vanderbilt to end the year. Tennessee isn’t going to the playoff in this scenario.

Tennessee would have just a 9% chance to be a playoff team, less than 1% chance to host and an 8% chance to go on the road in the first round.

In 200,000 simulations, Tennessee didn’t make the playoff with losses to Alabama and Georgia.