Updating Tennessee's College Football Playoff percentages from the ESPN Playoff Predictor

Tennessee Football has a 74% chance to make the College Football Playoff entering this week’s pivotal game at Georgia, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. The Vols have the seventh-best chance to make the 12-team playoff, according to the numbers. 

Oregon is virtually a lock at 95%, topping the list ahead of Indiana (93%), Ohio State (92%), Texas (82%), Penn State (81%) and Alabama (76%).

Georgia is just behind Tennessee at 73%. Boise State is at 71%, Notre Dame is at 66% and Ole Miss jumped up to 61% after its 28-10 win over Georgia. Miami dropped to 60% after its 28-23 loss at Georgia Tech. 

Tennessee at Georgia, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

No. 6 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 SEC) beat Mississippi State 33-14 Saturday night at Neyland Stadium and now goes back on the road to face No. 11 Georgia (7-2, 5-2) on Saturday night (7:30 Eastern Time, ABC) at Sanford Stadium in Athens.

“Tennessee’s head-to-head win against Alabama will continue to be important,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote in her playoff projections, “especially if the Vols lose another game and both teams have two-loss records. It’s only one tiebreaker, though, along with common opponents, and Tennessee will get its shot at Georgia next. 

“Alabama was able to beat Georgia. How Tennessee fares will be critical in separating what could possibly be three two-loss teams that all played one another.”

Tennessee has a 38.3% chance to win at Georgia according to ESPN Analytics and the ESPN Matchup Predictor. The Vols close the regular-season schedule with Senior Day against UTEP in two weeks and a road game at Vanderbilt on November 30.

Tennessee has a 99.0% chance to beat UTEP per the Matchup Predictor and a 79.0% chance to win at Vanderbilt. 

Should the Vols lose at Georgia and finish at 10-2, they would have a 76% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor. They would have a 24% chance to host in the first round and a 52% chance to go on the road in the first round.

If Tennessee finished 10-2 with a win at Georgia and a loss at Vanderbilt, the Vols would have an 87% chance to make the playoff, a 42% chance to host a playoff game and a 44% chance to go on the road. 

If Tennessee finished 10-2 in the regular season, with a loss at Georgia then a loss in the SEC Championship game, the Vols would have just a 26% chance to make the playoff and only a 7% chance to host in the first round.

If Tennessee won its final three regular-season games, then lost in the SEC Championship game, the Vols would have more than a 99% chance to make the playoff, an 88% chance to host in the first round and a 12% chance to play on the road in the first round. 

ESPN: Tennessee No. 5 in College Football Playoff projection

Dinich in ESPN’s projection of the top 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings had Tennessee at No. 5 overall, but seeded No. 7 in the bracket, hosting No. 10-seed Alabama in the first round. 

The official College Football Playoff rankings from the selection committee will be updated again on Tuesday. Tennessee was ranked No. 7 and seeded No. 8 in the first rankings release last week.

“A win against now 2-8 Mississippi State isn’t going to impress the committee — especially considering the offense continues to show some vulnerabilities,” Dinich wrote. “Any movement for the Vols would be as a result of teams around them shuffling. 

“The committee liked the Vols’ win against Alabama, which looks even better after the Tide beat LSU, but the group also struggled with Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas.”