ESPN Playoff Predictor gives Tennessee 68% chance to make College Football Playoff
Tennessee Football has a 68% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s playoff predictor. The Vols have the eighth-best chance to make the field with five games left to play.
Miami currently has the best chance at 90%, ahead of Oregon at 87%, Georgia at 85%, Penn State at 84%, Texas at 75%, Ohio State at 73% and Indiana at 69%.
No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) hosts Kentucky (3-5, 1-5) on Saturday night (7:45 Eastern Time, SEC Network) at Neyland Stadium.
The Vols stay home to face Mississippi State on November 9, before finishing the regular-season schedule with a road game at No. 2 Georgia, a home date against UTEP and a road game at Vanderbilt.
Tennessee would have 78% chance to make playoff with 10-2 record
ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Tennessee a 78% chance to make the playoff should the Vols finish the regular season with a 10-2 record and not go to the SEC Championship Game. They would have a 23% chance to host a first-round playoff game and a 55% chance to play on the road.
It’s down to a 28% chance should Tennessee go 10-2, make the SEC Championship Game but lose in Atlanta and enter Selection Sunday with three losses.
Both of ESPN’s updated bowl projections have Tennessee on the outside looking in at the 12-team playoff.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura had Tennessee going back to the Citrus Bowl for a second straight season, facing Illinois this time around. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach had Tennessee in the Gator Bowl against Virginia Tech.
Tennessee is No. 6 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, ranked behind Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia and Notre Dame.
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‘If the Vols finish as a two-loss team, they will be heavily dependent on that win against Alabama’
The FPI has a projected win-loss record of 10.3-21 and gives the Vols an 18.9% chance to win the SEC, a 13.4% chance to win the national championship and a 6.6% chance to win the national title, on top of the 68% chance to make the playoff. ESPN’s SP+ rating has Tennessee ranked No. 10.
On Saturday night Tennessee dropped to 12th in ESPN’s projection of the current College Football Playoff top 12. The Vols were ranked No. 8 last week, after the 24-17 win over Alabama.
“ESPN Analytics gives Tennessee more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games — except Nov. 16 at Georgia,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote. “If the Vols finish as a two-loss team, they will be heavily dependent on that win against Alabama to impress the selection committee enough for an at-large spot.
“A road win in the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt is no longer a gimme, and the committee would recognize that as a more respectable win than in years past.
“Still,” Dinich added, “a two-loss Tennessee’s fate would depend on how the Vols play, how their opponents finish, and how many other two-loss contenders are in the mix.”
