Loss at Arkansas has ESPN split on Tennessee's College Football Playoff chances
Tennessee Football’s 19-14 loss at Arkansas Saturday night has ESPN split on its postseason projections for the Vols. Mark Schlabach still has Tennessee as a College Football Playoff team, as the No. 10 seed in the 12-team field, while Kyle Bonagura moved the Vols out of his bracket.
Schlabach has Tennessee as the No. 10 seed going to No. 7 Penn State in the first round, with Penn State advancing to face No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinal round. Bonagura, meanwhile, has the Vols facing Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa on December 31.
Entering the Arkansas game, Bonagura had Tennessee not only in the playoffs, but making a run. As the No. 6 seed, he had the Vols beating No. 11 Clemson in the first round at Neyland Stadium, then upsetting No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl before falling to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl semifinal.
Schlabach last week had Tennessee as the No. 7 seed, also hosting Clemson as the No. 10 seed in the first round, and advancing to face No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
Five teams ranked No. 11 or higher lost on Saturday
A chaotic weekend of college football shook up the playoff picture, with five teams ranked in the top 11 of last week’s Associated Press Top 25 losing. No. 1 Alabama lost at Vanderbilt, No. 9 Missouri lost at No. 25 Texas A&M, No. 10 Michigan lost at Washington and No. 11 USC lost at Minnesota, along with No. 4 Tennessee’s loss at Arkansas.
ESPN mapped out three possible paths to the College Football Playoff for Tennessee moving forward: Winning an SEC Championship, losing in the SEC Championship game or splitting with Alabama and Georgia and finishing 10-2.
The ESPN Playoff Predictor gives Tennessee a 48% chance to make the playoffs, down from 79% last week.
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ESPN’s Heather Dinich ranked Tennessee third on the list of one-loss playoff contenders. She had the Vols at No. 5 in her current top 12 for the playoff.
“While the Week 2 win against NC State has lost its luster, the committee will still acknowledge that neutral-site win in addition to a true road win against Oklahoma,” Dinich wrote.
“The committee would also recognize Tennessee’s stingy defense and that the Vols’ receiving corps was banged up against Arkansas. The loss to the Razorbacks also wasn’t as bad as Bama’s loss to Vandy.”
She also noted that if Tennessee loses at home to Alabama in two weeks, Tennessee will be in a “must win” scenario at Georgia on November 16.
“If they don’t (beat Georgia),” Dinich wrote of the Vols, “their résumé probably won’t be strong enough to get in as a three-loss at-large team.”
