Bowl Projections: Where Tennessee is headed in updated College Football Playoff brackets

Tennessee stayed in the College Football Playoff conversation with a 28-18 win over Kentucky Saturday night at Neyland Stadium. The Vols got help elsewhere, too, with Texas A&M losing 44-20 at South Carolina and Clemson losing 33-21 at home against Louisville. 

On Sunday On3, ESPN, The Athletic, CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated all had the Vols in their updated playoff projections, with ESPN picking Tennessee to host a first-round playoff game.

On3 has Tennessee as the No. 10 seed going to No. 7 Indiana, with the winner facing No. 2 Miami.

ESPN has Tennessee hosting No. 9 Boise State, with the winner advancing to face No. 1 Oregon. The Athletic has the Vols as a No. 10 seed at No. 7 Penn State, with No. 2 Miami awaiting the winner. 

CBS Sports put the Vols in its playoff bracket for the first time this season. Jerry Palm has Tennessee as a No. 11 seed at No. 6 Texas, with the winner facing No. 3 Miami. 

Sports Illustrated has Tennessee at No. 9, playing at No. 8 Penn State in the first round with the winner advancing to face No. 1 Georgia.

‘If Tennessee finishes as a two-loss team it could be in trouble in the committee meeting room’

Tennessee, which moved up to No. 6 in the Coaches Poll and stayed at No. 7 in the Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday, goes to No. 2 Georgia in two weeks. 

ESPN’s outlook did come with a warning, though, should the Vols lose in Athens and finish the regular season with a 10-2 record.

“If Tennessee finishes as a two-loss team,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote, “it could be in trouble in the committee meeting room, where the winner of the Alabama-LSU game could have a better résumé. If Alabama wins, though, that could help the Vols if they honor that head-to-head.”

Since the 19-14 loss at Arkansas on October 5, Tennessee has answered with a 23-17 overtime win over Florida, a 24-17 win over Alabama and the 28-18 win over Kentucky. 

No. 7 Vols go to No. 2 Georgia on November 30

Before going to Georgia, Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC) hosts Mississippi State (2-7, 0-5) on Saturday night (7 Eastern Time, ESPN) at Neyland Stadium. The regular-season schedule closes with a home game against UTEP on November 23 and a road game at Vanderbilt on November 30. 

Dinich ranked Tennessee at No. 8 in her updated College Football Playoff Top 12 after Saturday’s game, coming in ahead of No. 9 Boise State, No. 10 Notre Dame, No. 11 Indiana and No. 12 Alabama.

“Boise State has a better loss (by a field goal at Oregon), and even in their best win (against Alabama), the Vols showed vulnerabilities with turnovers and penalties,” Dinich wrote, explaining why Tennessee could be seeded lower than No. 8. 

“They also needed overtime to beat a four-loss Florida team and both Oklahoma and NC State are also four-loss opponents now.”

Tennessee’s offense has struggled to find its rhythm in its last four games, getting shutout in the first half against Arkansas, Florida and Alabama and scoring only seven points in the first half against Kentucky. 

The defense has been elite, though, with Tennessee yet to give up more than 19 points through the first eight games of the season. 

“The committee will like their win against Alabama — and their defense,” Dinich wrote. “Tennessee’s scoring defense is No. 3 at 11.5 points per game, ahead of Oregon and Georgia and a hair above Ohio State (12 PPG). 

“The close road loss to Arkansas isn’t as bad as Notre Dame’s loss, and the Vols have better wins than the teams ranked below. Not since September, though, against a weak nonconference schedule has Tennessee asserted itself with a convincing win.”