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How the College Football Playoff would have been different for Tennessee in new seeding format

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey•05/23/25•

GrantRamey

Mike Matthews Tennessee Volunteers Football
Mike Matthews Tennessee Volunteers Football

The College Football Playoff announced this week that it will move to a straight-seeding format for its 12-team bracket beginning this season, moving away from last season’s format of the four highest-ranked conference champions getting the top four seeds and the first-round byes that went with them.

Conference commissioners voted on the move, which will now give the four byes to the four highest-ranked teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings.

That would have meant big changes for both Tennessee and the bracket as a whole last season. The Vols were the No. 9 seed and sent to No. 8 Ohio State. The Buckeyes went on to win the national championship, after starting the playoff run with a 42-17 win at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

The four byes last season went to No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State. 

ESPN: Vols would have been a touchdown favorite vs. SMU

In the new straight seeding format, Tennessee would have been a No. 7 seed and would have had a home game at Neyland Stadium in the first round, hosting No. 10 SMU. The winner would have advanced to face No. 2 Georgia in the Peach Bowl. 

ESPN on Friday noted that Tennessee would have been a touchdown favorite against SMU at home with a 66.9% win probability. The Vols would have been 2.5-point underdogs against Georgia in the second round, with the Bulldogs having a 55.9% win probability. 

ESPN’s SP+ projections gave Tennessee a 5.1% chance to win the national title in last season’s bracket. It would have been a 7.4% chance in the new seeding system. 

The other first-round matchups in the straight seeding format would have been No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 9 Boise State at No. 8 Indiana and No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Ohio State.

Looking back at last season’s College Football Playoff

The Clemson-Notre Dame winner would have advanced to face No. 4 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl while the Boise State-Indiana winner would have faced No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The Arizona State-Ohio State winner would have played No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl. 

Last season No. 5 Texas beat No. 12 Clemson 38-24 at home, beat No. 4 Arizona State 39-31 in overtime in the Peach Bowl, then lost to No. 8 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, 28-14.

No. 6 Penn State beat No. 11 SMU 38-10 in the first round, then beat No. 3 Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl, before losing to No. 7 Notre Dame in the semifinals in the Orange Bowl. 

Notre Dame beat No. 10 Indiana at home in the first round and beat No. 2 Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl in the second round.

Ohio State beat No. 1 Oregon 41-21 in the Rose Bowl, beat Texas in the semifinals and beat No. 7 Notre Dame 34-23 to win the national championship. 

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