Tennessee moves up to No. 3 in ESPN's updated College Football Playoff projection
Tennessee Football would be the No. 3 seed in the 12-team College Football Playoff if the field was set this week, according to an updated projection this week from ESPN. The Vols trailed only No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia after going on the road and winning 25-15 at Oklahoma Saturday night.
Ohio State came in at No. 4, ahead of No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 6 Miami, No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Penn State, No. 10 Utah, No. 11 Missouri and No. 12 Michigan.
“Remember, the committee doesn’t rank teams the old-fashioned way — moving them up a spot or two with a win, down a spot or two with a loss,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote on Tuesday.
“It’s a far more detailed conversation and evaluation, which is why Tennessee’s win at Oklahoma on Saturday could catapult the Volunteers more seriously into the playoff conversation than the latest Associated Press poll might indicate.”
Tennessee (4-0) moved up one spot to No. 5 in the AP Top 25 on Sunday afternoon. The Vols also moved up one spot to No. 6 in the updated Coaches Poll.
ESPN Playoff Predictor: Vols have 80% chance to make College Football Playoff
Tennessee has an 80% chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Only two teams have better chances, with Texas at 93% and Alabama at 84%. The Vols are ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Football Power Index and No. 6 in ESPN’s SP+ rating.
Dinich had Tennessee in the “first four out” category last week, despite the 71-0 win over Kent State at Neyland Stadium. The Vols were in her 12-team field two weeks ago, coming off the 51-10 win over North Carolina State in the Duke’s Mayo Classic in Charlotte.
“Just how high can (the Vols) climb?” Dinich asked. “There would be selection committee members who would reward Tennessee for a better combination of résumé and eye test than Ohio State. They would put Tennessee and Ohio State side-by-side on their giant flat-screen computers for a statistical comparison — and they would see two very similar teams. The biggest difference is the Vols’ win at OU.”
Dinich noted that Ohio State’s star power could lead to the Buckeyes being voted higher than the Vols by the selection committee: “If Ohio State is ranked ahead of Tennessee, it’s because the Buckeyes are oozing talent, not because of whom they beat.”
She added that the Oklahoma win was also important because of Tennessee’s remaining schedule, with a home date against Alabama in October and a road game at Georgia in November as the two biggest tests remaining.
“If Tennessee goes 0-2 against them,” Dinich wrote, “they need to hope the selection committee ranks Oklahoma because the season-opening win against NC State has already been devalued and there aren’t any other opportunities against ranked opponents.”
Up Next: No. 5 Tennessee at Arkansas, Saturday, October 5, 7 or 7:30 p.m. ET
Tennessee in its first true road game of the season led Oklahoma 22-3 to start the fourth quarter Saturday night in Norman, after having held the Sooner to under 100 total yards before they added two touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Nico Iamaleava completed 13 of 21 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown and the Vols ran 52 times as a team for 151 yards. Defensively they forced three takeaways, had three sacks and 11 tackles for loss and recorded a safety for a second straight week.
“For weeks, Tennessee had been passing the eye test, but the Vols finally added a statement win to their playoff résumé, beating a ranked SEC opponent in a true road game,” Dinich wrote. “The Vols entered Saturday’s game at Oklahoma ranked No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in offensive efficiency.
“That was evidenced on the field against the Sooners, as quarterback Nico Iamaleava managed the game well in a tough environment and the defense stifled the Sooners for the majority of the game.”
