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ESPN's College Football Playoff projection for Tennessee after win over Mississippi State

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey11/10/24

GrantRamey

James Pearce, Tennessee Football | Tennessee Athletics
James Pearce, Tennessee Football | Tennessee Athletics

Tennessee Football was ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s updated College Football Playoff top-12 ranking projection after the 33-14 win over Mississippi State Saturday night. The Vols were seeded seventh in ESPN’s bracket, hosting No. 10-seed Alabama in a first-round playoff game at Neyland Stadium. 

The top four teams were Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State, respectively. Ranked behind Tennessee was No. 6 Indiana, No. 7 BYU, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 9 Alabama, No. 10 Georgia, No. 11 Miami and No. 12 Boise State. 

The College Football Playoff rankings will be updated by the selection committee on Tuesday night, along with another bracket based on current rankings and seedings. The Vols were ranked No. 7 and seeded No. 8 in the first playoff rankings of the season last Tuesday. 

‘Tennessee’s head-to-head win against Alabama will continue to be important’

“A win against now 2-8 Mississippi State isn’t going to impress the committee — especially considering the offense continues to show some vulnerabilities,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote, explaining why the Vols could be ranked No. 5. 

“Any movement for the Vols would be as a result of teams around them shuffling. The committee liked the Vols’ win against Alabama, which looks even better after the Tide beat LSU, but the group also struggled with Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas.

Alabama beat LSU 42-13 in Baton Rouge Saturday night. Georgia lost its second game of the season, falling 28-10 at Ole Miss. Miami lost for the first time on the year, 28-23 at unranked Georgia Tech. 

Indiana could be a reason the Vols are ranked lower, according to Dinich. The Hoosiers stayed perfect with a 20-15 home win over Michigan. They were ranked behind Tennessee last week and were projected to be a No. 9 seed in the bracket, playing at No. 8 Tennessee in the first round. 

“The committee could reward undefeated Indiana for its more complete performances and undefeated record following the Hoosiers’ win against Michigan,” Dinich wrote, despite Indiana beating Michigan by five as a 14.5-point favorite. 

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Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 SEC) moved up to No. 4 in the Coaches Poll on Sunday and were ranked No. 6 in the new Associated Press Top 25. The Vols go to No. 11 Georgia (7-2, 5-2) on Saturday for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time start on ABC at Sanford Stadium in Athens. 

Selection Committee could be picking between multiple 10-2 SEC teams

There’s a potential for multiple SEC teams to finish at 10-2 — Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia among them — leaving it up to the selection committee to pick which programs belong in the playoff.

After the trip to Georgia, Tennessee closes with Senior Day against UTEP on November 23 and a road game at Vanderbilt on November 30. The Commodores beat Alabama 40-35 in Nashville on October 5.

“Tennessee’s head-to-head win against Alabama will continue to be important,” Dinich wrote, “especially if the Vols lose another game and both teams have two-loss records. It’s only one tiebreaker, though, along with common opponents, and Tennessee will get its shot at Georgia next. 

“Alabama was able to beat Georgia. How Tennessee fares will be critical in separating what could possibly be three two-loss teams that all played one another.”

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