Where Tennessee is ranked in ESPN's first Football Power Index update for 2025
Tennessee is ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s first Football Power Index update for the 2025 season. According to the FPI, the Vols have a 97.5% chance to win six or more games, a 4.2% to win the SEC and 38.5% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The new FPI has a projects Tennessee to go 9-3 — 8.7-3.4 is the exact prediction — with an 0.8% chance to go undefeated. The Vols have a 5.6% chance to make it to the national championship game and a 2.3% chance to win the title.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the new FPI, ahead of Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Penn State in the top five. Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Miami round out the top 10 just in front of Tennessee.
Texas has a 24.1% chance to win the national title, ahead of Georgia at 17.9%. Alabama and Ohio State, both at 10.8%, are the only other teams with a greater than 10% chance to win the title.
Vols not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25
The Vols finished at No. 9 in the 2024 Football Power Index after going 10-3 with a loss at Ohio State as a No. 9 seed in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Tennessee is not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early top 25, but the Vols are ranked 13th in ESPN’s updated SP+ projections. The Vols are ranked No. 7 on defense, No. 21 on special teams and No. 34 on offense in SP+ grades.
The SP+ score for Tennessee at No. 13 overall is 18.4. The Vols are had a 31.4 score on offense, ranked No. 34 overall, and a 13.0 score on defense, ranked No. 7 nationally. The special teams score was 0.2, ranked No. 21.
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The SP+ preseason projections are based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
Where Tennessee’s opponents are ranked in the Football Power Index
Tennessee faces five opponents ranked in the FPI’s top 25: No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Alabama, No. 16 Oklahoma, No. 18 Florida, No. 22 Arkansas and No. 34 Kentucky. Three other opponents are ranked No. 62 or higher (No. 52 Mississippi State, No. 56 Vanderbilt and No. 62 Syracuse) and two teams ranked No. 115 or lower (No. 115 UAB and No. 135 New Mexico State).
Tennessee starts the season against Syracuse on August 30 (Noon Eastern Time, ABC) in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
After hosting East Tennessee State in the home opener at Neyland Stadium on September 6 (3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network+/SEC Network+), the Vols start the SEC schedule at home against Georgia on September 13 (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
The rest of the home schedule is UAB (September 20), Arkansas (October 11), Oklahoma (November 1), New Mexico State (November 15) and Vanderbilt (November 29). Tennessee goes to Mississippi State (September 27), Alabama (October 18), Kentucky (October 25) and Florida (November 22).
