How ESPN's Football Power Index predicts Tennessee to finish the season

Tennessee football moved up one spot in the ESPN Football Power Index after the 33-27 win at Kentucky last week and is now No. 15 overall in the analytics-based rankings. The FPI predicts the Vols to finish 9-3 this season.

After moving up to No. 17 in the USA Today Coaches Poll and No. 19 in the Associated Press Top 25, Tennessee (6-2) hosts UConn (1-7) on Saturday (Noon Eastern Time, SEC Network) for Homecoming at Neyland Stadium. 

The Vols were ranked No. 17 when the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season were released on Tuesday. 

ESPN’s FPI gives Tennessee na 8.0% chance to win the SEC East, a 2.6% chance to win the SEC championship and an 0.3% chance to make the four-team College Football Playoff.

Tennessee is currently fourth in the SEC East standings with a 3-2 league record. The Vols trail Georgia (5-0), Missouri (3-1) and are tied with Florida (3-2) with the Gators holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.

To stay alive in the SEC East, the Vols need Georgia one of its next two — at home against Missouri and Ole Miss — and then Tennessee would need to win out, including against Georgia on November 18 at Neyland Stadium.

Here’s a look at how the ESPN analytics predict Tennessee’s remaining schedule:

Upcoming Opponents

(117) UConn — ESPN Analytics: 97.7% chance for Tennessee to win 

The Huskies picked up their first win of the season on October 7, beating Rice on the road 38-31. UConn started 0-5 with losses to North Carolina State (24-14), Georgia State (35-14), Florida International (24-17), Duke (41-7) and Utah State (34-33). UConn lost 21-14 at Boston College last week and 24-21 at home to South Florida two week ago.

At (24) Missouri — ESPN Analytics: 56.5% chance for Tennessee to win

Mizzou beat South Carolina 34-12 two weeks, following a 38-21 win at Kentucky. It was a bounce back from the 49-39 at home against LSU on October 7. The Tigers were off last week and go to No. 1 Georgia on Saturday, before the home date against Tennessee next week.

(5) Georgia — ESPN Analytics: 33.6% chance for Tennessee to win

After drilling Kentucky 51-13, Georgia won 37-20 at Vanderbilt two weeks ago. The Dawgs are coming off the bye week while facing Florida in Jacksonville this week. They host Missouri and Ole Miss in back-to-back home games before the trip to Tennessee on November 18.

(98) Vanderbilt — ESPN Analytics: 94.5% chance for Tennessee to win

After beating Hawaii (35-28) and Alabama A&M (47-13) to start the season, Vandy has lost seven straight: at Wake Forest (36-20), at UNLV (40-37), Kentucky (45-28), Missouri (38-21), at Florida (38-14), Georgia (37-20) and al Ole Miss (33-7). The Commodores host Auburn Saturday and end the season with back-to-back road games at South Carolina and at Tennessee.

Where Tennessee’s previous opponents are ranked

(3) Alabama: The Tide are 7-1 after six straight wins and host LSU Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, a 7:45 p.m. Eastern Time start on CBS.

(16) Texas A&M: The Aggies beat South Carolina last week after back-to-back losses to Alabama and Tennessee. A&M goes to Ole Miss Saturday.

(38) Florida: The Gators lost 43-20 to Georgia on Saturday in Jacksonville. This week the they host Arkansas before back-to-back road games at LSU and Missouri.

(41) Kentucky: The Wildcats have lost three straight after their 5-0 start to the season. They go to Mississippi State on Saturday, host Alabama in two weeks and go to South Carolina and Louisville to end the season. 

(43) South Carolina: The Gamecocks are 2-6 after four straight losses. They host Jacksonville State Saturday, the start of four straight home games to end the season, with Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Clemson going to Williams-Brice Stadium. 

(70) UTSA: Since losing in Knoxville, the Roadrunners have won four straight to run their record to 5-3. They’re currently in first in the American Conference.

(80) Virginia: UVa started 0-5 before back-to-back wins over William & Mary and North Carolina before a 29-26 loss at Miami last week.