Where Tennessee football's opponents are ranked in ESPN's Football Power Index

Tennessee is ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Football Power Index to start the 2023 season. The Vols, who were ranked No. 10 in the USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll and No. 12 in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 earlier this month, will face two of the top three teams in ESPN’s FPI and four top-20 teams.

The Football Power Index, according to ESPN, is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

ESPN’s FPI projects Tennessee to go 8-4 this season and gives the Vols a 92.9-percent chance to win six games. 

Tennessee has a 9.1-percent chance to win the SEC East, a 2.7-percent chance to win the SEC championship, a 4.3-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 1.5-percent chance to make the national championship and an 0.5-percent chance to win the national title.

Here’s the rankings of Tennessee’s 11 FBS opponents in the Football Power Index:

No. 2 Alabama

Tennessee at Alabama, October 21

After the 52-49 walk-off win in Knoxville last October, Tennessee has to go to Tuscaloosa to Alabama. The Crimson Tide is projected to win 11 games according to ESPN’s FPI.

No. 3 Georgia

Georgia at Tennessee, November 18

Tennessee lost 27-13 at Georgia last November, after the Vols started the season 8-0. Now Georgia, coming off back-to-back national championships, makes the return trip to Knoxville in November. Georgia is projected to go 11-1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index.

No. 18 Florida

Tennessee at Florida, September 16, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Vols haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003 and will face what is obviously the biggest early-season test at The Swamp in Week 3. The Gators are projected to go 7-5 under second-year Florida head coach Billy Napier. Florida opens at Utah and hosts McNeese State before Tennessee makes the trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

No. 19 Texas A&M

Texas A&M at Tennessee, October 14

Jimbo Fisher’s team limped to a 5-7 record in 2022, including a home loss to Appalachian State in September and a six-game losing streak that started on October 1 and stretched all the way to mid-November. The trip to Neyland Stadium in October is the end of a four-game run for A&M that includes Auburn at home, Arkansas (in Dallas) and has a home date with Alabama. 

No. 28 Kentucky

Tennessee at Kentucky, October 28

Tennessee’s 44-6 win over Kentucky in October was arguably the most complete win and best overall performance for the Vols during the first two years of the Josh Heupel era. Now Tennessee will have to go to Lexington and do it again, after Heupel’s team won 45-42 at Kroger Field in 2021.

No. 40 Missouri

Tennessee at Missouri, November 11

Tennessee has won four straight in the series. Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have put 128 points on the board in two games against the Tigers, against just 48 allowed. Tennessee won 66-24 at Neyland Stadium in November, a little over a year removed from the 62-24 win at Missouri in October 2021.

No. 42 South Carolina

South Carolina at Tennessee, September 30

South Carolina has the same quarterback (Spencer Rattler) and a new offensive coordinator (Dowell Loggains), but the metrics don’t think all that highly of the Gamecocks.

No. 61 UTSA

UTSA at Tennessee, September 23

UTSA redshirt senior quarterback Frank Harris has accounted for 11,234 yards and 99 touchdowns over the last four seasons. Last season he had career highs in both passing (4,063 yards, 32 touchdowns) and rushing (602 yards, nine touchdowns).

No. 72 Virginia

Tennessee vs. Virginia (Nissan Stadium, Nashville), September 2, Noon ET, ABC

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott went 3-7 in his first year as Virginia’s head coach. Now Elliott starts Year 2 with his Virginia team as a four-touchdown underdog against Tennessee in the season opener at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

No. 73 Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt at Tennessee, November 25

Tennessee went to Vanderbilt on November 26 last season and won 56-0 while rushing for 362 yards as a team, with six touchdowns on the ground.

No. 119 UConn

UConn at Tennessee, November 4

UConn won six games last season. The Huskies lost 59-0 at Michigan in September, a week after a 48-14 home loss to Syracuse, and opened the season with a 31-20 loss at Utah State. The season ended with a 28-14 loss to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl in December.