Bowl projections agree on which bowl game Tennessee will play in, who the Vols will face

The bowl projections for Tennessee football entering the 2023 season seem to be a consensus. Nearly every outlet projecting bowl games has the Vols destined for the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, where they’ll face Wisconsin. 

The Tennessee-Wisconsin Citrus Bowl is the matchup projected by Athlon Sports, Action Network, CBS Sports, College Football News and The Sporting News. The Action Network also listed the Badgers as a six-point favorite should the two teams meet. 

ESPN has two projections for the Vols. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has Tennessee and Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl while Mark Schalbach has the Vols facing North Carolina in the ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly the Outback Bowl.

Tennessee and Wisconsin have played only twice in football, with the Vols winning both times. First it was a 28-21 win in the Garden State Bowl in East Rutherford, N.J., on December 13, 1981. Most recently, Tennessee won 21-17 on New Year’s Day in 2008 in the Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

Tennessee Football’s history in the Citrus Bowl

The Vols have been to the Citrus Bowl five times, including three times in a four-year span between 1994 and 1997. Tennessee beat Maryland 30-23 in December 1983 and lost to Penn State 31-13 on New Year’s Day 1994.

The Vols won back-to-back Citrus Bowls on New Year’s Day in 1996 and 1997, beating Ohio State 20-14 to cap an 11-1 season in 1995 and beating Northwestern 48-28 to finish the 1996 season with a 10-2 record.

Tennessee beat Michigan 45-17 on New Year’s Day 2002 to end another 11-win season in its most recent Citrus Bowl trip. Until last season, it was the most recent 11-win season for the Vols, too. 

Countdown to Kickoff: Vols vs. Virginia (Nashville), Sept. 2, Noon ET, ABC

Tennessee opens the season on September 2 against Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, a Noon Eastern Time start on ABC. The Vols open their home schedule on September 9 against Austin Peay at Neyland Stadium, a 5 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN+/SEC Network+.

The SEC schedule opens at Florida on September 16 (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) and UTSA comes to Knoxville on September 23. The SEC home schedule starts with South Carolina on September 30.

The bye week falls on October 7 and Texas A&M visits Neyland Stadium on October 14. Tennessee has back-to-back road games at Alabama (October 21) and Kentucky (October 28), hosts UConn for homecoming on November 4 and closes with a trip to Missouri (November 11) and home games with Georgia (November 18) and Vanderbilt (November 25).

Tennessee has fourth best odds to win the SEC

Tennessee has the fourth best odds to win the SEC according to odds released in June by BetOnline. The Vols, at +1400 are behind Georgia (+100), Alabama (+200) and LSU (+525).

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranking has Tennessee at No. 12 heading into the season. The Vols are the fourth-highest ranked SEC team, behind Alabama, Georgia and LSU. ESPN’s SP+ ranking, which weighs returning production, recent recruiting and recent history, has Tennessee ranked No. 8 overall.

The FPI predicts Tennessee will go 8-4 in 2023 — the projected win-loss record is 8.2-3.9 —and gives the Vols a 98.1 percent chance to win at least six games. They have a 5.4 percent chance to win the SEC East, a 1.2 percent chance to win the SEC and a 2.5 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. There’s an 0.7 percent chance to make the national championship game and an 0.2 percent chance to win the title.