How ESPN's Football Power Index ranks the College Football Playoff contenders

Tennessee dropped to No. 5 in this week’s College Football Playoff Top 25 following the 27-13 loss at Georgia, the new consensus No. 1 team in the country.

The Vols (8-1, 4-1 SEC) still have a path to the four-team playoff bracket, though, if they can win out — they play Missouri on Saturday (Noon Eastern Time; TV: CBS) at Neyland Stadium and then road games at South Carolina and Vanderbilt close the regular-season schedule — and get some help from other teams. 

Ohio State stayed at No. 2 in this week’s CFP Top 25, just ahead of rival Michigan at No. 3. The two teams meet at Ohio State on November 26. TCU is No. 4, just ahead of Tennessee, but is an underdog on the road Saturday at No. 18 Texas.

ESPN’s Football Power Index still likes Tennessee’s chances to make the College Football Playoff, giving the Vols the third-highest chance to make the field. 

Here’s how the FPI ranks the CFP contenders entering Saturday’s games: 

92.4% — Georgia (No. 1)

The Bulldogs go to Mississippi State and Kentucky over the next two weeks, then close against Georgia Tech. Georgia is No. 1 in the polls and has a 92.4-percent chance to make the playoff per the ESPN FPI.

86.9% — Ohio State (No. 2)

On Saturday Ohio State hosts Indiana, then goes to Maryland and hosts rival Michigan to close the regular season. The Buckeyes are the consensus No. 2 team in the polls and No. 2 in ESPN’s FPI, with a 86.9-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

65.7% — Michigan (No. 3)

The Wolverines are No. 3 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Michigan is No. 4 in the ESPN FPI with a 65.7-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. Michigan hosts Nebraska and No. 16 Illinois before closing with the showdown at Ohio State on November 26.

58.3% — Tennessee (No. 5)

The Vols dropped to No. 5 in the Associated Press Top 25, the USA Today Coaches Poll and is also No. 5 in ESPN’s College Football Power Index. Tennessee hosts Missouri Saturday then closes the regular-season schedule at South Carolin and at Vanderbilt. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 58.3-percent chance to make the playoff and a 76.1-percent chance to win out over the next three games.

27.5% — Clemson (No. 10)

The Tigers dropped to No. 12 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Clemson is No. 8 in the ESPN FPI with just a 27.5-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, despite having a 74.2-percent chance to win the ACC. Clemson’s remaining schedule is three home games against Louisville, Miami and South Carolina.

17.5% — TCU (No. 4)

TCU is No. 4 in both polls but is all the way down at No. 14 in the FPI. There’s only a 17.5-percent chance the Horned Frogs make the College Football Playoff, per the FPI. TCU has back-to-back road games at Texas and TCU, then closes at home against Iowa State.

15.4% — Oregon (No. 6)

Oregon has been dominant since the 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season-opener in Atlanta in September. The Ducks are No. 6 in both polls but down at No. 11 in the ESPN FPI. Oregon’s chances to make the College Football Playoff is only 15.4 percent, despite having a 41.9-percent chance to win the PAC 12. Oregon hosts Washington and No. 14 Utah over the next two weeks, before going to No. 23 Oregon State on November 26.

14.7% — Alabama (No. 9)

Alabama dropped to No. 10 in the AP Top 25 and No. 11 in the Coaches Poll. The two-loss Tide still is somehow No. 3 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, but only has a 14.7-percent chance to make the playoff. Alabama goes to Ole Miss Saturday, hosts Austin Peay on November 19 and closes at home against Auburn on November 26.

6.9% — USC (No. 8)

USC is No. 8 in the AP Top 25, No. 7 in the Coaches Poll and No. 13 in the ESPN FPI, dropping three spots after the win over Cal. USC has an 18.6-percent chance to win the PAC 12 and only a 6.9-percent chance to make the playoff. USC hosts Colorado, goes to UCLA and then closes against Notre Dame.  

5.8% — LSU (No. 7)

LSU is now No. 8 in the Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the AP Top 25. The Tigers are No. 9 in the FPI with a 5.8-percent chance to win the SEC and a 5.4-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. LSU controls its own destiny in the SEC West while closing the schedule at Arkansas, at home against UAB then at Texas A&M.