Resetting Tennessee's College Football Playoff picture after loss at Georgia
Tennessee is still in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation after the 27-13 loss to Georgia on Saturday afternoon at Sanford Stadium in Athens.
The Vols (8-1, 4-1 SEC) host Missouri (4-5, 2-4) on Saturday (Noon Eastern Time; TV: CBS) at Neyland Stadium and opened on Sunday as a 20-point favorite. They close the regular-season schedule at South Carolina and at Vanderbilt.
Note Dame did Tennessee a favor Saturday night, dominating a previously undefeated and fourth-ranked Clemson team. Alabama now has two losses after losing in overtime at LSU. And, as for Georgia, the Vols need the Bulldogs to go undefeated and win an SEC Championship.
Here’s a reset of the College Football Playoff picture, based on Tuesday’s rankings, with updated positioning in the Associated Press Top 25, the USA Today Coaches Poll and ESPN’s Football Power Index:
No. 1 Tennessee — The Vols lost for the first time Saturday afternoon at No. 3 Georgia, 27-13. Tennessee’s high-flying offense was grounded, held to only 289 yards by an elite Kirby Smart defense. The Vols dropped to No. 5 in the Associated Press Top 25, the USA Today Coaches Poll and is also No. 5 in ESPN’s College Football Power Index. Tennessee hosts Missouri Saturday then closes the regular-season schedule at South Carolin and at Vanderbilt. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 63.7-percent chance to make the playoff and a 76.0-percent chance to win out over the next three games.
No. 2 Ohio State — The Buckeyes won 21-7 at Northwestern on Saturday, despite just 76 passing yards from CJ Stroud, who completed 10 of 26 passes. Ohio State ran for 207 yards and three touchdowns on 35 attempts as a team. On Saturday Ohio State hosts Indiana, then goes to Maryland and hosts rival Michigan to close the regular season. The Buckeyes are the consensus No. 2 team in the polls and No. 2 in ESPN’s FPI, with a 86.6-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
No. 3 Georgia — Georgia was ranked third in the College Football Playoff Top 25 on Tuesday but proved to be the best team in the country with the 27-13 win over Tennessee Saturday at Sanford Stadium in Athens. The Bulldogs go to Mississippi State and Kentucky over the next two weeks, then close against Georgia Tech. Georgia is No. 1 in the polls and has a 91.2-percent chance to make the playoff per the ESPN FPI. Tennessee would be best served by Georgia winning out, then winning the SEC Championship Game.
No. 4 Clemson — Notre Dame dominated Clemson Saturday night, building a 28-0 lead before winning 35-14 in South Bend. The Tigers dropped to No. 12 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Clemson is No. 8 in the ESPN FPI with just a 31.1-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, despite having a 74.6-percent chance to win the ACC. Clemson’s remaining schedule is three home games against Louisville, Miami and South Carolina.
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No. 5 Michigan — Rutgers led Michigan 17-14 at halftime Saturday night, but Michigan responded with a dominant second half, scoring 35 straight points to win 52-17. The Wolverines are No. 3 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Michigan is No. 4 in the ESPN FPI with a 62.6-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. Michigan hosts Nebraska and No. 16 Illinois before closing with the showdown at Ohio State on November 26.
No. 6 Alabama — The Crimson Tide almost assuredly saw their College Football Playoff hopes dashed in their 32-31 loss in overtime against No. 10 LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Alabama dropped to No. 10 in the AP Top 25 and No. 11 in the Coaches Poll. The two-loss Tide still is somehow No. 3 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, but only has a 16.2-percent chance to make the playoff. Alabama goes to Ole Miss Saturday, hosts Austin Peay on November 19 and closes at home against Auburn on November 26.
No. 7 TCU — Texas Tech led TCU 17-13 to start the fourth quarter, but the Horned Frogs answered, and stay undefeated, with three straight touchdowns on the way to a 34-24 win. TCU is No. 4 in both polls but is all the way down at No. 14 in the FPI. There’s only a 15.7-percent chance the Horned Frogs make the College Football Playoff, per the FPI. TCU has back-to-back road games at Texas and TCU, then closes at home against Iowa State.
No. 8 Oregon — The Ducks had no problem at Colorado Saturday, rolling to a 49-10 win over the one-win Buffs. Oregon has been dominant since the 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season-opener in Atlanta in September. The Ducks are No. 6 in both polls but down at No. 11 in the ESPN FPI. Oregon’s chances to make the College Football Playoff is only 14.0 percent, despite having a 41.8-percent chance to win the PAC 12. Oregon hosts Washington and No. 14 Utah over the next two weeks, before going to No. 23 Oregon State on November 26.
No. 9 USC — The Trojans hung on for a 41-35 win over Cal Saturday night in Los Angeles, two weeks removed from a 43-42 loss at Utah. USC is No. 8 in the AP Top 25, No. 7 in the Coaches Poll and No. 13 in the ESPN FPI, dropping three spots after the win over Cal. USC has an 18.5-percent chance to win the PAC 12 and only a 6.0-percent chance to make the playoff. USC hosts Colorado, goes to UCLA and then closes against Notre Dame.
No. 10 LSU — LSU gambled in overtime, going for two after Alabama opened the extra session with at touchdown. The gamble worked, with the Tigers converting and walking off with a 32-31 win. LSU is now No. 8 in the Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the AP Top 25. The Tigers are No. 9 in the FPI with a 16.7-percent chance to win the SEC and a 5.4-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. LSU controls its own destiny in the SEC West while closing the schedule at Arkansas, at home against UAB then at Texas A&M.