ESPN explains why Tennessee is one of 17 teams that can make the College Football Playoff

On November 1 last season, Tennessee football had done the unthinkable. The Vols were a perfect 8-0 and ranked No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff Top 25, after home wins over Alabama and Florida and a 40-13 road win at LSU.

There were two losses over the next three games, though, and Tennessee had to settle for an 11-win season — its first since 2001 — and a 31-14 win over Clemson in the Orange Bowl, in its first trip to a New Years Six bowl in the CFP era.

This week ESPN detailed 17 teams that can make the College Football Playoff this season, with the Vols making the list. The other 16 teams were Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Michigan, USC, Clemson, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Penn State, Oregon, Florida State, Utah, TCU and Wisconsin.

‘The Vols are trending up under coach Josh Heupel’

ESPN’s Football Power Index give Tennessee a 2.5% chance to make the playoff and a 0.2% chance to win the national championship. ESPN Senior Writer Heather Dinich wrote that she disagreed with the FPI’s 2.5% chance for the Vols to be a playoff team. 

“The Vols are trending up under coach Josh Heupel,” Dinich wrote, “and opportunities against both Alabama and Georgia can put Tennessee back where it was last year — in the top four. The question is if it can stay there this time.”

This time its Joe Milton III taking over at quarterback after Hendon Hooker was a Heisman Trophy a year ago. Tennessee has to replace Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman at wide receiver, too, while trying to build on everything they accomplished last season. 

The season kicks off September 2 against Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, a Noon ET start on ABC. The Vols open SEC play at Florida on September 16. Later in the season they host Texas A&M and go to Alabama over back-to-back weeks, on October 14 and October 21, and host Georgia on November 18 at Neyland Stadium.

Dinich listed the schedule as what the College Football Playoff committee will like about Tennessee’s resume, should the Vols be in the CFP conversation later in the season. 

“With crossover games against Alabama and Texas A&M plus the Nov. 18 game against Georgia,” Dinich said, “the Vols have enough chances at statement wins to help the committee forget Austin Peay, UTSA and UConn.”

Tennessee vs. Virginia, September 2, Nashville, Noon ET, ABC

Tennessee’s first loss last season came at Georgia, 27-13, on November 5. The Vols were tripped up at South Carolina two weeks later, ending any hopes of a CFP at-large bid.

“Last year, the Vols couldn’t do (beat Georgia) with SEC offensive player of the year Hendon Hooker,” Dinich wrote. “Now they’ve got to find a way to win at the highest level without him. Georgia’s defense will again be stifling, and the Vols didn’t score a touchdown last year until the final five minutes. This game should again decide the SEC East winner.”

What Tennessee can’t do, according to Dinich, is go 0-2 against the SEC West, losing to both Texas A&M and Alabama. 

“That puts its hopes of winning the division in jeopardy — even with a win against Georgia,” Dinich wrote. “If Georgia’s only regular-season loss is to Tennessee, and the Vols have two losses, Georgia would still win the East. 

“The division the Vols are in only becomes a factor in a tiebreaker situation. Would a win against the defending national champs be enough for a top-four finish? With two losses and no division or SEC title, it wouldn’t be a guarantee.