Tennessee football's game-by-game predictions from ESPN's Football Power Index

Tennessee football has better than a 50% chance to win nine of its 12 games on the regular-season schedule according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The highest percentage for the Vols comes against Austin Peay in Week 2, at 98.8%, while the lowest is at Alabama in October, at just a 12.0% chance to win.

Tennessee opens the season against Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, a Noon ET kickoff on ABC, and starts the SEC schedule on the road at Florida on September 16, a 7 p.m. ET start on ESPN.

The Vols, who were ranked No. 10 in the USA Today Preseason Coaches Poll on Monday, are ranked No. 12 overall in the ESPN Football Power Index, which is described by the network as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.”

Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations using the FPI as well as results to date and remaining schedule. 

The FPI projects Tennessee to go 8-4 this season with a 98.1% chance to win six games and reach a bowl game. The Vols have a 5.4% chance to win the SEC East, a 1.2% chance to win an SEC Championship and a 2.5% chance to make the four-team College Football Playoff.

Here are the FPI’s game-by-game percentages for all 12 games on Tennessee’s schedule this season: 

Virginia — 90.4%

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott went 3-7 in his first year as Virginia’s head coach. Now Elliott starts Year 2 with his Virginia team as a four-touchdown underdog against Tennessee in the season opener at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. ESPN’s FPI has Virginia at No. 72 overall. The Cavaliers are No. 79 in the SP+, ranked No. 124 on offense and No. 24 on defense. 

Austin Peay — 98.8%

Austin Peay starts on the road at Southern Illinois, then comes to Knoxville a week later. Tennessee opens with Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, then hosts Austin Peay for its home opener. Austin Peay is coming off a 7-4 season, which included a 34-0 loss at Alabama last November.

At Florida — 48.3%

This one always seems to set the tone for a Tennessee football season. The Vols haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003 and will face what is obviously the biggest early-season test at The Swamp in Week 3, a 7 p.m. Eastern Time kickoff on ESPN. The Gators are ranked No. 18 in the FPI, projected to go 7-5 under second-year Florida head coach Billy Napier. The SP+ has Florida at No. 21 overall, ranked No. 23 on offense and No. 38 on defense. Florida opens at Utah and hosts McNeese State before Tennessee makes the trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

UTSA — 89.6%

UTSA redshirt senior quarterback Frank Harris has accounted for 11,234 yards and 99 touchdowns over the last four seasons. Last season he had career highs in both passing (4,063 yards, 32 touchdowns) and rushing (602 yards, nine touchdowns). ESPN’s FPI has UTSA at No. 61 and the SP+ has them at No. 57, ranked No. 39 on offense and No. 85 on defense.

South Carolina — 81.2%

South Carolina has the same quarterback (Spencer Rattler) and a new offensive coordinator (Dowell Loggains), but the metrics don’t think all that highly of the Gamecocks. They’re ranked No. 42 in the FPI and No. 33 in the SP+. South Carolina’s offense comes in at No. 20 while the defense is ranked 64th.

Texas A&M — 68.7%

The numbers love Texas A&M in 2023. The Aggies are No. 19 in the FPI, projected to go 8-4, and the Aggies are No. 16 in the SP+, ranked No. 44 on offense and No. 2 on defense. But who knows what to expect from A&M after Jimbo Fisher’s team limped to a 5-7 record in 2022, including a home loss to Appalachian State in September and a six-game losing streak that started on October 1 and stretched all the way to mid-November. The trip to Neyland Stadium in October is the end of a four-game run for A&M that includes Auburn at home, Arkansas (in Dallas) and has a home date with Alabama. 

At Alabama — 12.0%

After the 52-49 walk-off win in Knoxville last October, Tennessee has to go to Tuscaloosa to Alabama. The Crimson Tide is No. 2 in the FPI, projected to win 11 games, and No. 4 in the SP+, ranked No. 5 on offense and No. 10 on defense.

At Kentucky — 53.2%

Tennessee’s 44-6 win over Kentucky in October was arguably the most complete win and best overall performance for the Vols during the first two years of the Josh Heupel era. Now Tennessee will have to go to Lexington and do it again, after Heupel’s team won 45-42 at Kroger Field in 2021. The metrics like this Kentucky team in 2023. ESPN’s FPI has the Wildcats at No. 28 and the SP+ has them at No. 22, ranked No. 59 on offense and No. 5 on defense. The FPI projects Kentucky to go 7-5. 

UConn — 97.3%

UConn won six games last season. The Huskies lost 59-0 at Michigan in September, a week after a 48-14 home loss to Syracuse, and opened the season with a 31-20 loss at Utah State. The season ended with a 28-14 loss to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl in December. This season UConn is ranked No. 119 in ESPN’s Football Power Index and No. 115 in ESPN’s SP+.

At Missouri — 65.9%

Tennessee has won four straight in the series. Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have put 128 points on the board in two games against the Tigers, against just 48 allowed. Tennessee won 66-24 at Neyland Stadium in November, a little over a year removed from the 62-24 win at Missouri in October 2021. ESPN’s FPI has Missouri at No. 40 and projected to go 6-6. The SP+ has Mizzou at No. 34 overall, ranked No. 52 on offense and No. 17 on defense.

Georgia — 22.3%

Tennessee lost 27-13 at Georgia last November, after the Vols started the season 8-0. Now Georgia, coming off back-to-back national championships, makes the return trip to Knoxville in November. Georgia is No. 3 in ESPN’s FPI, projected to go 11-1 and is No. 1 in the SP+, ranked No. 9 on offense and No. 3 on defense.

Vanderbilt — 91.2%

Tennessee went to Vanderbilt on November 26 last season and won 56-0 while rushing for 362 yards as a team, with six touchdowns on the ground. The FPI has Vandy at No. 73 overall while the ‘Dores are No. 69 in the SP+. The FPI has Vanderbilt going 4-8 while the SP+ has Lea’s team ranked No. 53 offensively and No. 99 defensively.