Updating ESPN's game-by-game predictions for Tennessee entering the Arkansas game

No. 4 Tennessee goes to Arkansas with an 82.0% chance to win Saturday night’s game according to ESPN’s updated game-by-game predictions. The Vols (4-0, 1-0 SEC) and Razorbacks (3-2, 1-1) are scheduled for a 7:30 Eastern Time start on ABC.

Tennessee, which moved up to No. 4 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and the Coaches Poll on Sunday, is ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, behind Texas, Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.

The FPI has a projected win-loss record of 10.4-1.9 for the Vols, with a 78.4% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee more than a 50% chance to win six of the remaining eight games on schedule, with only Alabama and Georgia being under 50%.

Here’s a look at the updated game-by-game numbers entering Saturday night’s game at Arkansas: 

Arkansas

Tennessee’s chance to win: 82.0%

Saturday | Away | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

Arkansas lost 21-17 against Texas A&M in Dallas last week after winning 24-14 at Auburn two weeks ago. The Razorbacks had to rally from down 17-3 against UAB in the first half at home two weeks ago, ultimately winning 37-27. The Razorbacks lost 39-31 in overtime at Oklahoma State on September 7 and beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 70-0 to start the season on August 29.

Florida

Tennessee’s chance to win: 91.2%

October 12 | Home | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN

Florida is coming off a bye week after improving to 2-2 with a win at Mississippi State two weeks ago. The Gators opened with ugly home losses to Miami (41-7) and Texas A&M (33-20) sandwiched around a 45-7 win over Samford.

No. 1 Alabama

Tennessee’s chance to win: 44.0%

October 19 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Alabama beat Georgia 41-34 in a thriller at Bryant-Denny Stadium last week. The Crimson Tide beat Western Kentucky 63-0 to open the season, beat South Florida 34-16 in Week 2 then went to Wisconsin for a 42-10.

Kentucky

Tennessee’s chance to win: 87.2%

November 2 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Kentucky stunned then-No. 6 Ole Miss 20-17 Saturday in Oxford. UK beat Southern Miss 31-0 at home to open the season, got throttled by South Carolina 31-7 in Lexington, then nearly upset then-No. 1 Georgia in a 13-12 loss. UK beat Ohio 41-6 two weeks ago.

Mississippi State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 96.1%

November 9 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Mississippi State started the season with 56-7 win over Eastern Kentucky, but has since lost four straight games. It started with a 30-23 road loss at Arizona State before back-to-back home losses, 41-17 to Toledo and 45-28 to Florida. State lost 35-13 at No. 1 Texas on Saturday.

No. 5 Georgia

Tennessee’s chance to win: 39.6%

November 16 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Georgia rallied from down 28-0 to take a late lead at Alabama Saturday night, only to give it up in the final two minutes in the 41-34 loss. The Bulldogs beat Clemson 34-3 to open the season and beat Tennessee Tech 48-3 in its home opener. Georgia had to escape Kentucky with a 13-12 win on September 14.

UTEP

Tennessee’s chance to win: 99.0%

November 23 | Home | 1 p.m. ET | SECN+/ESPN+

UTEP is 0-4 with losses at Nebraska (40-7), at home to FCS Southern Utah (27-24), at Liberty (28-10) and at Colorado State (27-17). The Miners are ranked No. 127 (out of 134) in ESPN’s updated FPI.

Vanderbilt

Tennessee’s chance to win: 89.1%

November 30 | Away | 12-1 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Vanderbilt started 2-0 win wins over Virginia Tech and Alcorn State 55-0, but the Commodores lost 36-32 at Georgia State on September 14 and 30-27 at Missouri in overtime two weeks ago.