Updating the ESPN Matchup Predictor picks for Tennessee after the loss to Georgia

A closer look at the ESPN Matchup Predictor picks for Tennessee Football’s remaining schedule after the Vols lost 44-41 in overtime to Georgia on Saturday at Neyland Stadium:

Syracuse

Before Week 1: Tennessee 88.6% win | Result: Vols 45, Syracuse 26

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

ETSU

Before Week 2: Tennessee 99.0% win | Result: Vols 72, ETSU 17

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17, while also setting the program record for first downs (41) in the win. Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the win, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Georgia

Before Week 3: Tennessee 51.5% win | Result Georgia 44, Tennessee 41 (OT)

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

UAB

Before Week 3: Tennessee 98.4% win | After Week 3: Vols 98.7%

Tennessee hosts UAB Saturday in a 12:45 p.m. ET start on SEC Network. UAB had to rally to beat Alabama State 52-42 at home in Week 1, lost 38-24 at Navy in Week 2 then beat Akron 31-28 Saturday night. The Vols are 5-0 against UAB in a series that dates back to November 1998.

Mississippi State

Before Week 3: Tennessee 81.2% win | After Week 3: Vols 76.8%

Mississippi State is 3-0 with wins over then-No. 12 Arizona State 24-20 in Starkville, Southern Miss (34-17) and Alcorn State (63-0). Tennessee goes to Mississippi State on September 27, with kickoff set for 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time on SEC Network.

Arkansas

Before Week 3: Tennessee 73.3% win | After Week 3: Vols 72.8%

Arkansas dropped to 2-1 after losing 41-35 at Ole Miss on Saturday night. The Razorbacks beat Arkansas State 56-14 in Little Rock and beat Alabama A&M 52-7 in Week 1. Tennessee hosts Arkansas on October 11 in a flex kickoff window (3:30-4:30 p.m. or 6-8 p.m.). The Razorbacks upset Tennessee 19-14 in Fayetteville last season. Arkansas won 24-20 in its last appearance at Neyland Stadium, in October 2015.

Alabama

Before Week 3: Alabama 63.0% win | After Week 3: Alabama 66.4%

Alabama lost 31-17 at Florida State in Week 1 and has bounced back with a 73-0 win over Louisiana Monroe and a 38-14 win over Wisconsin. Tennessee goes to Alabama on October 18 for the annual Third Saturday in October Rivalry. The Vols have won two of the last three, beating the Crimson Tide 24-17 at Neyland Stadium last season and 52-49 in Knoxville in 2022.

Kentucky

Before Week 3: Tennessee 78.0% win | After Week 3: Vols 77.1%

Kentucky is 2-1 after a 30-23 at home against then-No. 20 Ole Miss and wins over Toledo (24-16) and Eastern Michigan (48-23). The Vols go to Lexington on October 25, looking for a third straight road win over Kentucky during the Josh Heupel era, including a 45-42 at Kentucky in November 2021 and 33-27 road win in October 2023.

Oklahoma

Before Week 3: Tennessee 75.3% win | After Week 3: Vols 64.3%

Oklahoma beat then-No. 15 Michigan 24-13 on September 6 in Norman. The Sooners won 42-3 at Temple Saturday and beat Illinois State 35-3 in Week 1. Tennessee hosts Oklahoma on November 1 after going to Norman last season and winning 25-15. It was the first win over Oklahoma for Tennessee since 1939, after the Sooners won three straight (1968, 2014 and 2015).

New Mexico State

Before Week 3: Tennessee 99.0% win | After Week 3: Vols 99.0%

New Mexico State is 2-1 after losing 49-14 at Louisiana Tech Saturday Night. The Aggies started the season with a 19-3 win over Bryant in Week 1 and a 21-14 win over Tulsa in Week 2. The November 15 game will be the first meeting between the two teams and will be Homecoming Weekend for the Vols, as well as Salute to Service Weekend. It’s a 4:15 p.m. ET start on SEC Network.

Florida

Before Week 3: Tennessee 64.1% win | After Week 3: Vols 68.1%

Florida lost 20-10 at No. 3 LSU Saturday night, a week after being upset 18-16 at home by South Florida. The Gators opened with a 55-0 win over Long Island in Week 1. Tennessee goes Florida on November 22, the first game agains the Gators in November in program history. Kickoff is currently in the flex window.

Vanderbilt

Before Week 3: Tennessee 78.9% win | After Week 3: Vols 69.4%

Vanderbilt is 3-0 and ranked No. 20 after a 31-7 win at then-No. 11 South Carolina Saturday night. The Commodores won 44-20 at Virginia Tech on September 6 and opened the season with a 45-3 win over Charleston Southern at home in Week 1. Tennessee will end the regular-season schedule on November 29 with Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium. The Vols were looking a seventh straight win in the annual in-state series, which dates back to 1892.