ESPN's 'Matchup Predictor' picks Tennessee Football's wins and losses this season

ESPN analytics gives Tennessee Football a 50% or greater chance to win nine games this season, according to the game-by-game matchup predictor for the Vols. 

The greatest percentage is the season opener against Chattanooga, with Tennessee having a 99.0% chance to win. The Vols also have a 98.5% chance to beat Kent State at home and a 95.8% chance to beat UTEP on Senior Day at Neyland Stadium in November. 

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Tennessee ranked No. 9 overall with a projected win-loss of 8.6-3.5. The FPI gives the Vols a 95.4% chance to win at least six games, a 5.5% chance to win the SEC, a 36.9% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 6.0% chance to make the national championship game and a 2.7% chance to win the national title. 

Here’s a look at the game-by-game percentages for the Vols this season, per ESPN:

Chattanooga

Tennessee’s chance to win: 99.0%

August 31 | Neyland Stadium | 12:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network

Chattanooga is ranked No. 8 in the FCS Preseason Coaches Poll, coming an 8-5 season in 2023 that saw the Mocs go to the second round of the playoffs, beating Austin Peay 24-21 on the road in the first round before losing 26-7 at Furman.

No. 24 North Carolina State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 69.4%

September 7 | Neutral | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

Tennessee is 2-1 against N.C. State. The Vols lost 16-0 in Raleigh in 1911, won 13-0 in Raleigh in 1939 and beat the Wolfpack 35-21 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in 2012.

Kent State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 98.5%

September 14 | Home | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Tennessee has never played Kent State in football. The Golden Flashes went just 1-11 this season, with the lone win coming at home against Central Connecticut State in September.

No. 16 Oklahoma

Tennessee’s chance to win: 40.1%

September 21 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Oklahoma and Tennessee have met only four times, with Oklahoma winning the last three. Tennessee beat the Sooner 17-0 in the 1939 Orange Bowl, capping an 11-0 season. Oklahoma won 26-24 in the 1968 Orange Bowl, won 34-10 in Norman in 2014 and won 31-24 in overtime at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville in 2016. 

Arkansas

Tennessee’s chance to win: 74.5%

October 5 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Tennessee and Arkansas have played only 19 times dating back to 1907, with Tennessee winning 13 times. Arkansas has won three straight and four of the last five going back to 2006.

Florida

Tennessee’s chance to win: 70.0%

October 12 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Tennessee lost a tough one in Gainesville last September, 29-16. Tennessee’s 38-33 win at Neyland Stadium the previous September snapped a five-game losing streak in the series.

No. 4 Alabama

Tennessee’s chance to win: 42.0%

October 19 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

The 52-49 Tennessee in October 2022 at Neyland Stadium broke Alabama’s streak of 15 straight wins in the series. Tennessee won seven in a row between 1995 and 2001 and won 10 of 12 between 1995 and 2006.

Kentucky

Tennessee’s chance to win: 79.4%

November 2 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Tennessee has won ten of its last 12 games against Kentucky, dating back to 2012, including the 33-27 win in Lexington in October. The Wildcats won at Neyland Stadium in 2020, their first win in Knoxville since 1984, and in Lexington in 2011 and 2017.

Mississippi State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 83.5%

November 9 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Tennessee is 29-16-1 in the all-time series against Mississippi State, dating back to 1907. The Vols have won 10 of the last 12, including a 20-10 win at Neyland Stadium in 2019.

No. 1 Georgia

Tennessee’s chance to win: 20.6%

November 16 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Georgia has won seven straight against Tennessee. The Vols won back-to-back games in the series in 2015 and 2016, winning 38-31 in Knoxville in 2015 and 34-31 in 2016, when Jauan Jennings hauled in the Hail Mary touchdown from Joshua Dobbs on the last play of the game.

UTEP

Tennessee’s chance to win: 95.8%

November 23 | Home | 1 p.m. ET | SECN+/ESPN+

Tennessee is 3-0 against UTEP in a series that dates back to 1986, with the two most recent games being shutout wins. The Vols won 24-0 in 2018, 56-0 in 1990 and 26-16 in 1986.

Vanderbilt

Tennessee’s chance to win: 84.9%

November 30 | Away | 12-1 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Tennessee has won five straight in the series after Vanderbilt had a run of five wins in seven years between 2012 and 2018. The Vols won 22 straight between 1983 and 2004.