Tennessee as a favorite at Florida? It hasn't happened very often

Tennessee opened as a touchdown favorite for Saturday night’s game at Florida … way back in the spring. The Vols were a 7.5-point favorite when early lines dropped in early May and, as of Wednesday, remain a 6.5-point favorite headed to The Swamp this weekend.

Based on historical college football betting odds from BetOnline, Tennessee has been the favorite at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium just once in the last 30 years. It happened in 2015 and the Vols were favored by just one point — and lost by exactly one point, 28-27.

According to odds from OddsShark that date back to 1997, Tennessee on average has been a 10-point underdog in its last 13 trips to Florida. The Gators most recently were a 19-point favorite in 2021, a 13-point favorite in 2019 and a 6.5-point favorite in 2017.

It was a 16.5-point spread in 2013 and 10.0 in 2011. Florida was a 30-point favorite in 2009, a touchdown favorite in 2007 and a 6.5-point favorite in 2005. Tennessee won 24-14 as a 3.0-point underdog in 2003.

A No. 4-ranked Tennessee team beat No. 2 Florida 34-32 in December 2001 after entering the game as a 17.5-point underdog. Florida was a 2.0-point favorite in 1999 and a 3.5-point favorite in 1997.

Vols started week as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday

The line on FanDuel late Saturday night was 8.5 points in favor of No. 11 Tennessee (2-0), but since then has moved two points to make Florida (1-1) a 6.5-point underdog. The two teams will kickoff Saturday night at 7 p.m. Eastern Time on ESPN.

“Looking forward to going, playing a really good football team here, a great opportunity,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said during his press conference on Monday. “You come to Tennessee because you want to play in these types of games, these types of environments. On prime time Saturday night, great challenge in front of us.

“Really good football team. (Florida is) big, strong, athletic on both sides of the line. Of scrimmage. Skill players on both sides are really good. Great speed and will be huge steps for us.”

Tennessee beat Virginia 49-13 on September 2 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, covering a 27.5-point spread. The Vols beat Austin Peay 30-13 on Saturday in the home opener at Neyland Stadium, but failed to cover the 48.5-point spread after a sluggish start.

Florida opened the season as a 5.5-point underdog at then-No. 14 Utah and lost 24-11 on August 31. The Gators returned home Saturday night and snapped a run of four straight losses with a 49-7 win over McNeese, but failed to cover a 48.5-point spread.

Up Next: No. 11 Tennessee at Florida, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Second-year Florida head coach Billy Napier is looking to win his first rivalry game with the Gators after losing to Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Florida State last season. 

The Vols beat Florida 38-33 at Neyland Stadium last September and now make the return trip to Gainesville for their first road game of the season. 

“You’re not gonna completely tune out the noise,” Heupel said, “but once you get the play call, you’re focusing on your job. It’s 11 guys inside of the white line. I don’t care if it’s at home, on the road, in the backyard. 

“These guys have been doing it for a long time. You do have to control your emotions, right? You have to be able to execute and play from within yourself. That’ll be a big part of the football game.” 

Tennessee is looking for its first win in Gainesville since 2003 and have won just three times at The Swamp since 1971.

“Yesterday has nothing to do with today,” Heupel said on Monday. “The previous game, our previous play has nothing to do with what’s gonna happen on the next play. It’s about preparing the right way, practicing the right way that will lead to you playing the right way.”