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Putting Tennessee as a 15.5-point favorite against Florida into perspective

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey10/10/24

GrantRamey

Tennessee Football | Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
(Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports) Sep 24, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) runs the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Neyland Stadium.

Tennessee Football being favored by 15.5-points against Florida is the biggest spread in favor of the Vols since at least 1997, according to Odds Shark. Saturday night’s game between the eighth-ranked Vols and Gators is scheduled for a 7 Eastern Time start on ESPN. 

This season’s line between Tennessee and Florida has fluctuated widely since early lines were released in the spring. 

DraftKings in early lines released back in May had Tennessee as an 11-point home favorite against Florida. The line climbed to as much as Tennessee -20 late last week, before the Vols were upset 19-14 at Arkansas. 

As of Thursday, the consensus was Tennessee -15.5 with a total of 55.5. The Vols were -700 on the money line while were +500. Florida had 67% of the bets, according to The Action Network

Vols are 4-1 against the spread this season

Tennessee is 4-1 against the spread this season, covering against Chattanooga (-39.5), North Carolina State (-8.5), Kent State (-49) and at Oklahoma (-5.5). The loss at Arkansas, where Tennessee was a 14-point favorite, was the first time the Vols failed to cover this season. 

Florida is 1-3 against the spread so far, failing to cover in home games against Miami (+2.5), Samford (-38.5) and Texas A&M (+3). The Gators covered as a seven-point road favorite on September 21 at Mississippi State. 

Florida has won two straight, beating UCF 24-13 last week — it was a pick ‘em game in Gainesville — and winning 45-28 at Mississippi State. The Gators started the season with a 41-17 loss to Miami, followed by a 45-7 win over Samford and a 33-20 loss to Texas A&M.

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Tennessee as a favorite against Florida

Tennessee is 9-14-4 against the spread against Florida dating back to 1997, with a 6-21 overall record agains the Gators. The under has hit 15 times and the over has hit 12 times.

Tennessee has been favored eight times against Florida dating back to 2002. The biggest spread was 11 points in 2022 and the smaller was one point in both 2014 and 2015.

The Vols are 1-7 against the spread as a favorite against the Gators, with the over hitting five times and the under hitting three times. 

Tennessee covered as a five-point favorite in the 38-28 win over Florida in September 2016. The Vols failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite at Florida last season and also failed to cover in 2022 (-11), 2015 (-1), 2014 (-1), 2012 (-3), 2004 (-3) and 2002 (-5.5).

Tennessee is 3-7 outright as a favorite against Florida, winning 38-33 in 2022, 38-28 in 2016 and 30-28 in 2004.

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