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Where ESPN's Football Power Index predicts Tennessee to finish in the SEC standings

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey•06/09/25•

GrantRamey

Tennessee Football | Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics
Tennessee Football | Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts Tennessee to finish fifth in the SEC this season, coming in behind Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Texas A&M. The FPI gives the Vols a 4.2% chance to win the conference championship. 

Texas, ranked No. 1 in the first FPI update for the new season, is atop the SEC with a 34.1% chance to win the league. Georgia and Alabama, ranked No. 2 and No. 3 overall, are at 26.9% and 17.2%, respectively. 

Texas A&M, at 4.3%, is just ahead of Tennessee’s 4.2% chance. From there it’s LSU (3.5%), Ole Miss (2.8%), Auburn (1.8%), South Carolina (1.8%), Oklahoma (1.2%) and Florida (1.0%), before the percentages drop below 1.0.

Tennessee ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s first Football Power Index for 2025

Tennessee, which finished third in the SEC last season, is ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s first Football Power Index update for the 2025 season. According to the FPI, the Vols have a 97.5% chance to win six or more games and a 38.5% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

The new FPI has a projects Tennessee to go 9-3 — 8.7-3.4 is the exact prediction — with an 0.8% chance to go undefeated. The Vols have a 5.6% chance to make it to the national championship game and a 2.3% chance to win the title. 

Texas is ranked No. 1 in the new FPI, ahead of Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Penn State in the top five. Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Miami round out the top 10 just in front of Tennessee. 

Texas has a 24.1% chance to win the national title, ahead of Georgia at 17.9%. Alabama and Ohio State, both at 10.8%, are the only other teams with a greater than 10% chance to win the title.

Vols not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25

The Vols finished at No. 9 in the 2024 Football Power Index after going 10-3 with a loss at Ohio State as a No. 9 seed in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

Tennessee is not ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early top 25, but the Vols are ranked 13th in ESPN’s updated SP+ projections. The Vols are ranked No. 7 on defense, No. 21 on special teams and No. 34 on offense in SP+ grades. 

The SP+ score for Tennessee at No. 13 overall is 18.4. The Vols are had a 31.4 score on offense, ranked No. 34 overall, and a 13.0 score on defense, ranked No. 7 nationally. The special teams score was 0.2, ranked No. 21.

The SP+ preseason projections are based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. 

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