How Josh Heupel is handling Tennessee's College Football Playoff talk

Tennessee on Tuesday night will find out exactly where it stands in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee. But after a wild weekend of upsets, the Vols look to be firmly entrenched in the field of 12 heading into the last weekend of the regular season.

For Tennessee, it is essentially win and get in. So, naturally, the expectations will be high as in-state rival Vanderbilt has the chance to play spoiler to the Vols’ playoff chances.

Josh Heupel addressed the stakes of the game with his team on Monday as they kicked off rivalry week, and while the Vols will not dwell on the importance of the game throughout the week, he reiterated to his team that they will have to be at their best if they want to achieve the long-standing goal.

“I addressed it today. But I said it last week, there’s a lot of football to be played,” Heupel said during his weekly press conference on Monday. “That’s for everybody across the country. It’s for us and focus on the task at hand and we have to be our best on Saturday.

“You can look at how they’ve performed throughout the course of the season, how they’ve played at home, statistically what they’re doing in all three phases. You got to understand you’re going to get their best. Their best is really good and we gotta be at our best too.”

No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt, Saturday, Noon ET, ABC

While the Commodores dropped a game on the road over the weekend to LSU, they have been good at home and have been competitive in nearly every contest this fall. Saturday does not project to be any different, and Heupel reiterated as much.

“Big road game,” Heupel added during his press conference. “Playing a really good football team in Vanderbilt. You look at what they’ve done throughout the season, but statistically they do a great job of tying all three phases together. They play complementary football. They’re smart. They’re tough. They’re physical. They’re disciplined. They make you earn it.

“Offensively, the quarterback (Diego Pavia) is a dynamic player. It’s quarterback run game. He has unique ability to extend and make plays outside of the scope of the play call, too. And defensively, they don’t give up a bunch of big plays. They play assignment sound. And special teams, you look at what they’re doing, punt returner (is) dynamic. And their punt game, their punter changes the field. 

“It’s a huge test for us,” Heupel added, “and one we got to get prepared for and get ready for. And practice well and get ready to go play well on Saturday afternoon.”

ESPN: With win at Vandy, Tennessee should be in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day’

A win over Vanderbilt would give Tennessee a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN, with a 21% chance to host in the first round and a 72% chance to go on the road.

The Playoff Predictor gives both Oregon and Ohio State a greater than 99% chance to make the playoff, ahead of Penn State at 99%, Texas at 98%, Indiana at 98%, Georgia at 91%, Notre Dame at 90% and Miami at 80%.

Behind Tennessee is Boise State at 68%, SMU at 63% and Alabama at 37%.

ESPN on Saturday night had the Vols ranked No. 8 in updated playoff rankings and seeded ninth in the bracket. 

“As long as Tennessee doesn’t lose at Vanderbilt on Saturday — and that’s hardly a guarantee — the Vols should be in the committee’s top 12 on Selection Day,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote, “now that Ole Miss played itself out.”

The College Football Playoff selection committee will release its new rankings and bracket projection Tuesday night. The official bracket will be announced on December 8.