Updating ESPN's game-by-game win probabilities for Tennessee Football

Tennessee Football is the No. 7 team in the country according to ESPN’s updated Football Power Index. The FPI now projects a win-loss record of 9.2-3.0 for Tennessee. It gives the Vols a 1.3% chance to go undefeated and a 98.8% chance to win at least six games.

Tennessee has a 6.4% chance to win the SEC, a 50.2% chance to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff, a 9.1% chance to make the national championship game and a 4.3% chance to win the title. 

The Vols (1-0) go on the road this week for a neutral-site game against North Carolina State (1-0) on Saturday night (7:30 Eastern Time, ABC) in the Duke’s Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

The FPI now projects a win-loss record of 9.2-3.0 for Tennessee. It gives the Vols a 1.3% chance to go undefeated and a 98.8% chance to win at least six games.

Here’s a look at ESPN’s game-by-game win probabilities for Tennessee Football this season:

No. 24 North Carolina State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 87.9%

Saturday | Neutral | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

Tennessee opened with a 69-3 win over Chattanooga on Saturday while North Carolina State trailed Western Carolina 21-17 in the third quarter Thursday night. The Wolfpack scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to win 38-21. ESPN gave Tennessee a 69.4% chance to win two weeks ago. The Vols opened as a 5.5-point favorite but the line has moved to 7.5. NC State dropped 28 spots to No. 56 overall in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index.

Kent State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 99.0%

September 14 | Home | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Kent State is ranked dead last in ESPN’s FPI, at No. 134. The Golden Flashes lost 55-24 at Pitt in Week 1. Two weeks ago the ESPN analytics gave Tennessee a 98.5% chance to win.

No. 16 Oklahoma

Tennessee’s chance to win: 49.4%

September 21 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Tennessee had a 40.1% chance to win at Oklahoma in August. The Sooners, ranked No. 9 in ESPN’s FPI, beat Temple 51-3 Friday night. Oklahoma plays Houston and Tulane at home before hosting Tennessee, with the Sooners making their debut in the SEC.

Arkansas

Tennessee’s chance to win: 75.1%

October 5 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Arkansas opened the season with a 70-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff on Thursday in Little Rock. Tennessee and Arkansas have played only 19 times dating back to 1907, with Tennessee winning 13 times.

Florida

Tennessee’s chance to win: 87.3%

October 12 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

ESPN in August gave Tennessee a 70.0% chance to beat Florida at home. That was before the Gators lost 41-17 against Miami at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville on Saturday. Florida dropped 23 spots to No. 43 in the updated ESPN FPI.

No. 4 Alabama

Tennessee’s chance to win: 37.4%

October 19 | Home | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Alabama started the Kalen DeBoer era with a 63-0 win over Western Kentucky Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide are ranked No. 2 in the FPI. The 52-49 Tennessee in October 2022 at Neyland Stadium broke Alabama’s streak of 15 straight wins in the series.

Kentucky

Tennessee’s chance to win: 82.5%

November 2 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Kentucky, ranked No. 29 in the updated FPI, beat Southern Miss 31-0 Saturday night in Lexington. Tennessee has won ten of its last 12 games against Kentucky, dating back to 2012, including the 33-27 win in Lexington last October.

Mississippi State

Tennessee’s chance to win: 85.2%

November 9 | Home | 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Mississippi State started the Jeff Lebby era with a 56-7 win over Eastern Kentucky. Tennessee is 29-16-1 in the all-time series against Mississippi State, dating back to 1907. The Vols have won 10 of the last 12, including a 20-10 win at Neyland Stadium in 2019.

No. 1 Georgia

Tennessee’s chance to win: 21.6%

November 16 | Away | 3:30-4:30 or 6-8 p.m. ET | TBD

Georgia beat Clemson 34-3 to open the season in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have won seven straight against Tennessee. The Vols won back-to-back games in the series in 2015 and 2016, winning 38-31 in Knoxville in 2015 and 34-31 in 2016, when Jauan Jennings hauled in the Hail Mary touchdown from Joshua Dobbs on the last play of the game.

UTEP

Tennessee’s chance to win: 98.2%

November 23 | Home | 1 p.m. ET | SECN+/ESPN+

UTEP lost 40-7 at Nebraska on Saturday. The Miners are ranked No. 118 in ESPN’s FPI. Tennessee is 3-0 against UTEP in a series that dates back to 1986, with the two most recent games being shutout wins. The Vols won 24-0 in 2018, 56-0 in 1990 and 26-16 in 1986.

Vanderbilt

Tennessee’s chance to win: 87.9%

November 30 | Away | 12-1 p.m. ET | SEC Network 

Vanderbilt moved up eight spots to No. 68 in the new FPI after a 34-27 overtime win over Virginia Tech Saturday in Nashville. Tennessee has won five straight in the series after Vanderbilt had a run of five wins in seven years between 2012 and 2018. The Vols won 22 straight between 1983 and 2004.