Where Tennessee opponents are ranked in ESPN's preseason SP+ ratings

Tennessee football will start the season ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s SP+ ratings, with an overall rating of 22.4. The Vols have the No. 3 offense with a rating of 43.1 and the No. 32 defense at 20.7.

Georgia came in at No. 1 in the overall ratings, ahead of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, LSU, Penn State and Clemson.

The Vols were ranked No. 10 overall in the USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll released last week and No. 12 in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 released on Monday.

ESPN describes its SP+ rating system as “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” The SP+ rating is a predictive measure factoring in a team’s returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Tennessee will play two top-five teams in the SP+ this season, at home against Georgia and on the road at Alabama, and has five opponents ranked in the top 25. 

Here’s a look at the complete SP+ rankings for the teams the Vols will face this season:

No. 1 Georgia

Overall Rating: 29.2 | Offense: 40.2 (No. 6) | Defense 10.9 (No. 2)

Tennessee lost 27-13 at Georgia last November, after the Vols started the season 8-0. Now Georgia, coming off back-to-back national championships, makes the return trip to Knoxville in November. Georgia is projected to go 11-1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index.

No. 4 Alabama

Overall Rating: 28.1 | Offense: 42.9 (No. 4) | Defense: No. 14.8 (No. 11)

After the 52-49 walk-off win in Knoxville last October, Tennessee has to go to Tuscaloosa to Alabama. The Crimson Tide is projected to win 11 games according to ESPN’s FPI.

No. 16 Texas A&M

Overall Rating: 18.5 | Offense: 29.5 (No. 44) | Defense 11.0 (No. 3)

Jimbo Fisher’s team limped to a 5-7 record in 2022, including a home loss to Appalachian State in September and a six-game losing streak that started on October 1 and stretched all the way to mid-November. The trip to Neyland Stadium in October is the end of a four-game run for A&M that includes Auburn at home, Arkansas (in Dallas) and has a home date with Alabama. 

No. 23 Florida

Overall Rating: 13.7 | Offense: 35.5 (No. 25) | Defense 21.8 (No. 41)

This one always seems to set the tone for a Tennessee football season. The Vols haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003 and will face what is obviously the biggest early-season test at The Swamp in Week 3, a 7 p.m. Eastern Time kickoff on ESPN. The Gators are ranked No. 18 in the FPI, projected to go 7-5 under second-year Florida head coach Billy Napier. Florida opens at Utah and hosts McNeese State before Tennessee makes the trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

No. 24 Kentucky

Overall Rating: 13.4 | Offense: 26.6 (No. 61) | Defense 13.2 (No. 6)

Tennessee’s 44-6 win over Kentucky in October was arguably the most complete win and best overall performance for the Vols during the first two years of the Josh Heupel era. Now Tennessee will have to go to Lexington and do it again, after Heupel’s team won 45-42 at Kroger Field in 2021.

No. 33 South Carolina

Overall Rating: 11.3 | Offense: 36.1 (No. 21) | Defense 24.8 (No. 61)

South Carolina has the same quarterback (Spencer Rattler) and a new offensive coordinator (Dowell Loggains), but the metrics don’t think all that highly of the Gamecocks.

No. 35 Missouri

Overall Rating: 10.5 | Offense: 27.8 (No. 52) | Defense 17.3 (No. 19)

Tennessee has won four straight in the series. Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have put 128 points on the board in two games against the Tigers, against just 48 allowed. Tennessee won 66-24 at Neyland Stadium in November, a little over a year removed from the 62-24 win at Missouri in October 2021.

No. 56 UTSA

Overall Rating: 4.3 | Offense: 32.3 (No. 36) | Defense 28.1 (No. 80)

UTSA redshirt senior quarterback Frank Harris has accounted for 11,234 yards and 99 touchdowns over the last four seasons. Last season he had career highs in both passing (4,063 yards, 32 touchdowns) and rushing (602 yards, nine touchdowns).

No. 76 Vanderbilt

Overall Rating: -5.5 | Offense: 26.5 (No. 63) | Defense: 31.9 (No. 106)

Tennessee went to Vanderbilt on November 26 last season and won 56-0 while rushing for 362 yards as a team, with six touchdowns on the ground.

No. 79 Virginia

Overall Rating: -5.8 | Offense: 13.5 (No. 125) | Defense: 19.3 (No. 25)

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott went 3-7 in his first year as Virginia’s head coach. Now Elliott starts Year 2 with his Virginia team as a four-touchdown underdog against Tennessee in the season opener at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

No. 125 UConn

Overall Rating: -18.9 | Offense: 12.0 (No. 127) | Defense 30.8 (No. 97) 

UConn won six games last season. The Huskies lost 59-0 at Michigan in September, a week after a 48-14 home loss to Syracuse, and opened the season with a 31-20 loss at Utah State. The season ended with a 28-14 loss to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl in December.